Wind Advisory 4, NWS Morristown, TN

204 
WWUS74 KMRX 200844
NPWMRX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
344 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2023

TNZ018-041-043-045>047-072-074-VAZ006-008-200945-
/O.CAN.KMRX.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230120T1200Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-
Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-
Sevier Smoky Mountains-Russell-Washington VA-
344 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have decreased below advisory level. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
649 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023

Key Messages:

1. Gusty west winds this afternoon and tonight.

2. Temperatures cooling back to near or above seasonable levels.

Discussion:

An upper low seen on WV imagery this afternoon is lifting into the
Great Lakes. A surface front is well east of the local area now,
moving into the mid Atlantic region. Gusty southwest winds continue
this afternoon within deep mixing behind this front with well above
normal temperatures.

Strong gradient winds will continue tonight with westerly winds
between 10-20 mph with higher gusts between 30-40mph. These winds
will eventually subside later this evening but will still remain
between 10-15 mph. The wind advisory will remain in place for all
zones excluding the mountain zones through 00Z tonight, and a wind
advisory will remain in place across the mountain zones through
12Z Friday morning.

Otherwise, much cooler weather can be expected tonight and on Friday
with temperatures near to above seasonable levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather for Friday night and Saturday with seasonable
temperatures.

2. A couple of rounds of precipitation for the Sunday through
Thursday time frame with just a brief break between.

3. The potential for mountain wave enhancement of the wind looks
marginal with the first system but looks higher with the second.

Discussion:

Surface high pressure and low amplitude upper ridging will bring dry
and seasonable weather to start the period Friday night and
Saturday.

Models are in decent agreement for the first of our two main systems
during the period, and depict an upper level trough moving out of
the Plains across our area and then lifting off to the northeast.
Models have less agreement on the exact track of the weak surface
low associated with this system, but overall they agree that we will
see rain moving in Sat night into Sunday.  Model soundings indicate
most of this precipitation should fall as rain on the front side,
although some of the higher mountain tops mainly north/east may see
some brief snow at onset.  The direction of the low level jet looks
like it may be favorable for mountain wave enhancement of the wind
Saturday night into at least early Sunday, but the magnitude of the
jet looks on the low side and the highest winds look to be to our
southeast so the set up looks marginal at best for now. This will
bear watching however as these details could easily change with
later runs.  QPF values right now are only around a half inch or so
for Saturday night through Sunday night.  On the back side of this
system, colder air will be moving in and low level flow will turn
more northwesterly as the axis of the upper trough moves across, and
we will likely see a transition to snow showers especially over the
higher terrain Sunday night into early Monday with some light
accumulation possible mainly over the high elevations. Ensemble data
suggest a low to moderate probability of an inch or more of
accumulation in some of these areas.

Brief upper ridging/surface high pressure will move across the area
providing dry conditions later Monday and Monday night.  The next
system will be approaching by Tuesday, as another upper trough lifts
northeast out of the Plains.  Models are still struggling with the
details of this system, and especially the strength and track of the
surface low that tracks northeast into the Eastern Great Lakes and
NE states. Models generally show this low tracking by to our west,
and the set up right now looks favorable for more significant
mountain wave enhancement of the wind in the usual higher
elevation/foothills locations sometime in the Tuesday into Wednesday
time frame although significant timing differences exist.  The
precipitation with this system again looks to be mainly rain on the
front side, with possible snow showers on the back side especially
higher terrain, but details that far out are still murky.  Thursday
looks drier with below normal temperatures as this system pulls away.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023

Gusty winds will continue to be experienced across all TAF sites
until early overnight. Winds are forecast to hang on at TRI at
least until the end of the TAF period. Wrap around moisture from
the north will send MVFR level CIGs to TRI and TYS during the
early overnight period as well. Winds and CIGs should improve by
late morning or early afternoon Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             37  52  31  53 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  37  48  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       36  49  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              36  44  26  47 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-East Polk-
     Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-
     Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest
     Blount-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-
     Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-
     Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Northwest Carter-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Lee-Scott VA-Wise.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for Russell-Washington VA.

&&

SHORT TERM...Diegan
LONG TERM....LW
AVIATION...KS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-202015-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
311 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2023 /211 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Gusty southwest winds will continue behind a cold front this
afternoon and into tonight in the Plateau, and valley locations.
Wind gusts up to 30-40 mph are possible late this afternoon. Winds
will eventually subside later tonight. Gusty winds will also
continue across the higher terrain areas. Southwest winds 20-30mph
with wind gusts as high as 50 mph will remain possible across
locations 4000 feet and above.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Some light snow accumulations will be possible over the higher
elevations Sunday night into Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.