Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
315 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

Key Messages:

1. Line of showers and storms currently moving through the
central East TN Valley still pose a risk of strong damaging wind
gusts and isolated tornadoes. This threat continues east into
northeast TN and southwest VA over the next few hours.

2. Strong damaging non-thunderstorm wind gusts continue areawide
through this evening, even behind the line of showers and storms.

3. The possibility of widespread tree and powerlines damage
continues into the evening hours.

A line of showers and storms currently moving through the central
East TN Valley still pose a risk of strong damaging wind gusts
and isolated tornadoes. This threat continues east into northeast
TN and southwest VA over the next few hours. A tornado watch
remains in effect for most areas. See latest watch products for
more details. At the current hour, shear values remain very high
across the area with a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, which is why the
tornado threat continues. Aside from tornado threat, any stronger
showers and storms could transport higher winds aloft down to the
surface with wind gusts in excess of 70 mph due to the 70kt 850mb
jet that remains overhead.

Outside of the showers and storms, strong and gusty winds continue
areawide due to the gradient winds. These higher gusts will
continue behind the line as the cold front approaches and moves
through and a High Wind Warning continues for all areas through
this evening.

Latest HRRR runs show showers and storms exiting east between 23Z
and 00Z tonight, but again, strong winds will continue behind
this line. Temperatures fall into the upper 30s to low 40s late
tonight behind the cold front.

Saturday looks dry with clouds clearing from late morning into
the early afternoon hours. Temperatures will be cooler with highs
in the lower 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

Key Messages:

1. Less active by chances of rain Monday night/Tuesday morning and
again Wednesday night through Friday. Rainfall amounts will
generally be light.

2. Temperatures will range from near normal to above normal through
the period.

Discussion:

Weak flow aloft will encompass most of the long term period. Late
this weekend, high pressure will dominate the Tennessee Valley
promoting dry weather conditions, and near normal temperatures. Late
Sunday and into early next week, flow turns toward the south
advecting warmer air poleward. This also proceeds an area of low
pressure that is expected to quickly lift into the midwest and Ohio
Valley. An attendant front will progress through the area Tuesday
with chances of showers along and ahead of the front.

Forecast confidence decreases mid/late week as an upper level trough
moves into the plains. Low pressure is expected to develop across
the south before lifting north across the Southern Appalachians.
Chances of showers will increase Wednesday through the end of the
period. Temperatures during this time period will be near to above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

Strong winds and wind gusts are forecast the rest of the afternoon
and into the evening hours at all sites, with gusts from 40 to
45kts out of the southwest. A high wind warning remains in effect.

A line of showers and storms will move in from the west over the
next few hours. Locally higher wind gusts are possible as the line
passes through. MVFR CIGs forecast at CHA with the line, and
tempo MVFR at TYS. Then, MVFR CIGs later tonight at all sites
through the period. Winds die down overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             42  63  40  69 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  42  59  36  66 /  10   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       41  61  37  66 /  10   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              40  56  33  64 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...High Wind Warning until 3 AM EST Saturday for Anderson-Campbell-
     Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Morgan-
     North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Cocke-Roane-Scott
     TN-Union.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for Hancock-Hawkins-
     Johnson-Northwest Carter-Northwest Greene-Southeast Carter-
     Southeast Greene-Sullivan-Unicoi-Washington TN.

     High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Monroe.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for
     Bledsoe-Bradley-East Polk-Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
     Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Sequatchie-West Polk.

VA...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for Lee-Russell-Scott
     VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

SHORT TERM...SR
LONG TERM....Diegan
AVIATION...SR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-042000-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 /156 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A strong system is currently moving across the area this
afternoon, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Some of these
storms will likely be severe with the main concern being damaging
straight line winds and isolated tornadoes.

Besides severe storms, very windy conditions are expected to
continue area-wide through this evening, even behind the line of
storms due to strong gradient winds. South to southwest wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph are expected in the valley with gusts up to
70 to 80 mph across the Mountains and Foothills.

Due to the wet ground and high winds, down trees and power lines
will be a concern which will likely cause power outages.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and early
evening.

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