Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
315 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

Key Messages:

1. Slow-moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will pose a
flooding threat through the evening.

2. Scattered to numerous showers and t'storms again on Sunday,
mainly in the eastern half.

Discussion:

A moist and unstable environment across the TN Valley and southern
Appalachians has resulted in scattered to numerous storms in the
area. A few have developed to strong to marginal severe levels, but
have been short-lived and slow-moving due to a lack of shear.
Through the evening, the main concern with the storms will be heavy
rainfall rates and slow movement that may cause localized flash
flooding. Areas that received heavy rain the last few days will be
the most vulnerable to flooding, which is mainly along and east of I-
81 in NE TN and SW VA.

Tonight and Sunday, a moist environment will remain in place as a
mid/upper level trough lingers over the area. Low clouds and fog are
likely for many locations tonight, especially where rain falls this
afternoon. On Sunday, convection is expected to develop in a similar
manner to today, with a diurnal timing and favoring the terrain for
development, due to the lack of forcing and a weak wind profile. The
forecast will have mainly scattered afternoon coverage, with likely
PoPs in NE sections.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

Key Messages:

1. Chances for showers and storms increase Tuesday into Wednesday
ahead of a cold front.

2. Below normal temperatures expected the second half of the week.

Discussion:

Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms across the area will be on
the downward trend for the overnight hours, as the upper trough
shifts east. Monday should be mostly dry with the exception of
isolated to scattered activity over the higher terrain and southwest
Virginia.

The focus for the week will be Tuesday when a cold front crosses the
area and sends our temperatures well below normal for the rest of
the forecast period as well as dry air behind it. Following right
behind weak ridging on Monday, a trough extending SW from Canada
over the Great Lakes moving east, will be the feature the cold front
originates from. With recent model runs, it appears the front will
arrive Tuesday into Wednesday which is faster than previous
guidance. So, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms should
be expected Tuesday coinciding with the front, possibly lingering
into Wednesday especially across the higher terrain.

From the middle of the week onward, dry air with west to northwest
flow will set up behind the frontal passage. Many Valley locations
will reach 70s for highs, which is nearly 10 degrees below normal
for the middle of September. By next weekend, rain chances may re-
enter the picture as another possible digging trough extends down
across our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will be increasing over the next few
hours across East TN, especially near TYS and TRI. Expect at least
MVFR conditions when TS pass over the terminals, mainly between
20-00Z. A few hours of VFR conditions are expected in the evening
before low clouds and fog develop. IFR to LIFR conditions are
possible depening on the amount of rain at the terminals this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  66  84  65 /  40  20  40   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  84  64  82  63 /  60  40  50  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       86  64  81  63 /  60  40  50  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              85  62  79  62 /  60  50  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...DGS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1142 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-101545-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
1142 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 /1042 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are likely in southwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, and eastern portions of East Tennessee and in
this afternoon. The main threats with these storms will be
frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. Slow-moving storms with
heavy rain may result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>