Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
700 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Key Messages:

1. Widespread, persistent thunderstorms are likely with some being
strong to severe. All modes of severe weather are possible with the
greatest threat being damaging winds and a lesser hail and tornado
threat.

2. Confidence has increased in potential for scattered flash
flooding due to several hours of rain after what fell earlier today
and in recent days.

3. Hot conditions continue in the south today with much milder and
drier conditions on Tuesday.

This Evening/Tonight

Currently this afternoon, a closed low is moving towards the western
Great Lakes with a downstream upper jet of 100+ kts. The surface low
will continue to track eastward with its associated cold front to
approach the area after midnight. This cold front, in addition to
height falls, will be the main forcing mechanism for the convection
later in the day.

The convective environment through this evening is very unusual for
the time of year, given expected effective shear of 30+ kts in the
south and values above 40 kts in the north. Low-level shear is
broadly indicated to be above 20 kts to even 30 kts closer to
southwest Virginia. The main question continues to be instability
through the late afternoon and the initiation/timing of convection.
Many places near and south of Knoxville saw less convection and
cloud cover in comparison to places further north. These places
already have MLCAPE of 2,000 to 2,500 J/kg. With a remaining
outflow boundary from the earlier convection, there is a low- end
chance of initiation over the next few hours. This would be ahead
of additional lift later in the evening ahead of the cold front
and after additional upper divergence. All modes of severe weather
will be of concern through the evening and overnight hours. The
CAMs continue to show varied updraft helicity tracks, focused
mainly in the northern half of the area. This will keep the low-
end tornado threat, in addition to damaging winds and isolated
large hail. The north has been slower to clear, but the trend in
the last hour or two certainly suggests sufficient instability for
concern as in areas further south.

The concern for flooding has continued to rise as many places
already received near or above 1" of rain earlier today. With the
RAP/HRRR runs indicating multiple rounds/training convection,
locally heavy rainfall amounts on the saturated ground could
definitely lead to flash flooding. In fact, there is potential for
places to see off and on rain for over 6 hours. This will all be in
the presence of PWAT values to 2" or greater. The exact locations
remain unclear, but there is enough confidence to say coverage of
flash flooding could be more scattered, than an isolated event. Fog
development is likely by the early morning.

Tuesday

During the day on Tuesday, the frontal boundary will move through
the area, leading to advection of milder conditions from the
northwest. Some lingering showers or storms are possible earlier
in the day near the front. Otherwise, drier and milder conditions
will result as high pressure expands from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Key Messages:

1. Cooler and drier conditions are expected this week, with a
warming trend heading into the weekend.

Discussion:

Troughing digs into southeastern portions of the United States
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with H5 heights near 586dam across
northern portions of the forecast area and 590dam in southern
portions. Impacts of this shift in synoptic pattern will result in
drier conditions and below normal temperatures. A disturbance will
translate through mean flow aloft by the late week. This will
briefly sharpen the aforementioned troughing before kicking it
northeastward, with ridging gradually building in from the west.
Cannot totally rule out some low end PoP chances late week per
ensemble guidance but at this time no significant precip chances
look to come from this and no wording has been included in grids.
The main impact will be a gradual warming trend as H5 heights
increase into the weekend and temperatures approach normal to
slightly above normal for mid to late August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Showers and storms are now developing in southern Middle TN, and
are expected to increase in coverage and intensity over the next
few hours. These storms are expected to affect the TAF sites
between 02-06Z, with IFR vis from heavy rain and gusty winds of
30-40 kt. Showers are likely to persist into the night, but their
location and impacts on the terminals are uncertain, but some
could produce heavy rain that would result in IFR to LIFR
conditions. MVFR clouds and fog will continue into the morning
hours, lifting to VFR around noon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  85  64  83 /  60  30   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  82  63  81 /  70  40   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  82  62  80 /  70  20   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              70  79  60  79 /  80  40   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Bradley-
     Hamilton-Marion-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...DGS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
312 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-151915-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
312 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 /212 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread thunderstorms are likely this evening with some being
severe. All hazards are possible, including damaging straight
line winds from 60 to 70 mph, large hail from 1 to 1.5 inches, and
an isolated tornado. The tornado threat is greatest along and
north of Interstate 40 with the other threats being more area-
wide.

Additionally, there is an elevated flooding concern this evening
through the overnight hours due to saturated ground, abundant
moisture, and multiple rounds of storms. It is possible for some
places to see off and on rain for more than just a few hours into
the morning hours. Scattered flash flooding is possible, depending
on the coverage and persistence of convection.

Also, hot conditions are expected to continue with many central
and southern Tennessee Valley locations seeing heat indices close
to 100 to 105 degrees, especially in and around Chattanooga. See
the heat advisory for additional details, which is in effect for
Marion, Hamilton, Bradley, and western Polk Counties until 8 PM
EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports are welcome this afternoon through tonight for
severe thunderstorms and/or flash flooding.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Morristown TN
929 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Jefferson City      36.13N 83.49W
08/14/2023                   Jefferson          TN   911 Call Center

            Several trees down in Jefferson County.

&&

NW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1026 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     Hail             1 ESE Church Hill       36.52N 82.70W
08/14/2023  M1.00 inch       Hawkins            TN   Trained Spotter

&&

NW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1037 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 E Strawberry Plains   36.07N 83.63W
08/14/2023                   Jefferson          TN   Public

            Several trees reported blown down.

&&

NW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1052 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Blaine            36.16N 83.70W
08/14/2023                   Grainger           TN   911 Call Center

            Several reports of trees down in Blaine.

&&

NW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1053 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

TNZ087-150345-
Southeast Monroe TN-
1053 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY
THROUGH 1145 PM EDT...

At 1052 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles west of Town Of Santeetlah, or 15 miles north of Murphy, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Citico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for
southwestern North Carolina...and east Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 8422 3536 8424 3543 8415 3545 8398
      3541 8402 3537 8401 3535 8404 3533 8403
      3531 8404 3530 8402 3525 8409 3525 8412
      3524 8413 3525 8417 3524 8419
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 255DEG 28KT 3531 8411

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

KS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1055 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Flash Flood      1 WNW Blaine            36.15N 83.71W
08/14/2023                   Grainger           TN   Law Enforcement

            Floodwaters blocked Emory Road near Blaine.

&&

NW