Storm Warning 1, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
416 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 415 AM EDT WED MAR 15 2023

Much warmer temperatures are holding steady early this morning due
to increased cloud cover inhibiting the radiational cooling, unlike
last night.  Temperatures across most of the UP are in the 20s with
the only caveat being the east where there are clear skies.  Latest
obs are reporting mid teens over those counties, and they could
dip into the single digits, yet, this morning.

For the rest of today, the dry conditions will prevail into the
evening hours, but then the ridge starts to break down as upper flow
briefly becomes more zonal ahead of the next impending system.
Increased isentropic ascent will commence over the western
counties by this evening with precipitation chances becoming more
widespread tonight. P-type will be in the form of rain tonight due
to strong WAA ahead of the aforementioned system and temperatures
staying above freezing. Patchy fog will result in reduced
visibilities though, especially for the Thursday morning commute.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT WED MAR 15 2023

The midlevel shortwave that will eventually kick off a period of
active weather for the end of the week is just now moving onshore of
the West Coast. This will be over the Rockies into Wednesday
evening, with a surface low closing off that will start tracking
into the Plains during the night. In the meantime, the warm front
surging northeast ahead of this will touch off our first round of
precipitation Wednesday night, lasting through at least Thursday
morning. Simulated reflectivity indicates a brief break in steady
precipitation into the early afternoon as the warm front moves over
Lake Superior. Rain is looking most likely with soundings running
quite warm and wet. However, surface temperatures near freezing may
lead to pockets of freezing rain early Thursday morning.

Precipitation chances will be reinforced into Thursday evening as
the Colorado Low moves into the Midwest. This should phase with a
trough that will be digging into the Northern Plains Thursday
evening, and will result in a 500mb low closing off over the Upper
Great Lakes into the night. The surface low, over southern WI around
0Z Friday, will rapidly deepen while moving northeast into the
central/northern LP into early Friday. This storm track will result
in cold air seeping into the UP overnight as flow shifts to the
northeast, causing precipitation to change over to snow by early
Friday. Strong frontogenetical forcing and lake enhancement amid
blustery NE flow will lead to increasing precipitation rates into
early Friday. Meanwhile, saturated soundings cool further, showing a
deep DGZ as much as 10 to 15kft. This points to a potential for
heavy snowfall Thursday night into Friday morning. Friday afternoon
and evening, the tight surface low will move into southern Ontario
while the the closed upper low slowly tracks eastward over the Great
Lakes. This will see synoptic snowfall starting to taper off into
Friday night, but chilly, persistent northerly flow will keep in
lake effect snow through Saturday. An additional concern will be
gusty winds, particularly on Friday as the surface low makes its
closest pass. Wind gusts around 20 to 30 mph are currently on tap
for most of the area, likely resulting in blowing and drifting snow.

With this long-duration, strongly-forced precipitation event, we
could be looking at pretty significant snow accumulations. Much of
the guidance would leave us with 0.5 to 1.5in of precipitation over
the 48 hours ending 12Z Saturday, with locally higher QPF
particularly over the higher elevations of Marquette county courtesy
of terrain and lake enhancement. Snow ratios, initially very low
Thursday, will increase above 10:1 into Friday as cooler air moves
in and we eventually change over to pure lake effect. However, there
is still quite a bit of uncertainty as even a slight shift in the
track of this system could have significant implications for
precipitation type and intensity.

Dry and quiet weather finally returns Sunday and into early next
week with high pressure building in. Temperatures, after turning
chilly Friday and Saturday, climb above average Sunday and into
early next week with large diurnal swings expected.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 132 AM EDT WED MAR 15 2023

VFR conditions will gradually deteriorate to at least MVFR by late
in the TAF period ahead of a system moving into the Upper Great
Lakes. Ongoing LLWS at KCMX and KIWD associated with a LLJ will
slowly press east overnight, but diurnal mixing and gusty winds
at the surface should reduce the LLWS potential at all terminals
after sunrise.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 343 AM EDT WED MAR 15 2023

A Gale Warning is in effect Thursday evening through Saturday
evening. Southwest winds at around 20 to 25 knots today briefly fall
back below 20 knots overnight. Winds shifting to the northeast for
Thursday will increase to 20 to 30 knots for the afternoon, then
gales to 35 to 45 knots are expected Thursday evening through Friday
night. There will be some storm force gusts to 50 knots beginning
Friday afternoon as well. Northerly gales to 35 to 40 knots are
expected to linger through Saturday. Winds fall back to around 20 to
30 knots while backing to the NW and then west Saturday night, then
come in at around 20 to 25 knots Sunday. Heavy freezing spray and
wave heights around 10 to 15 feet are also expected before winds
fall back Saturday night.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
     evening for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Thursday to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
     CDT/ Saturday for LSZ162-240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...LC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Marquette MI
346 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-151930-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
346 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023 /246 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan and western Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A light rain is possible Wednesday night through Thursday before
a strong winter storm potentially brings significant snowfall and
strong winds to Upper Michigan Thursday night into this weekend.
See the latest Special Weather Statement for additional details.

Some minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion is possible along the
Lake Superior shoreline near the Porkies and from Marquette County to
Grand Marais late Thursday night into Friday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-151930-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
346 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023 /246 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake
Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Northeast gales are possible late Thursday through Saturday. A
shorter period of storm force gusts are possible Friday. See the
latest Marine Weather Message and Open Lake Forecast for
additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-151930-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
346 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

North gales are possible Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

TAP