Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Marquette, MI

031 
WHUS73 KMQT 071513
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1013 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

LSZ243-072315-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230208T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0020.230208T0000Z-230208T0600Z/
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
1013 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts
  up to 35 kt and waves 6 to 9 ft occurring. For the Small Craft 
  Advisory, west winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  waves 4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 7 PM EST this evening. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST 
  Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ244-248>251-072315-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230208T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0022.230208T0000Z-230208T0600Z/
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
1013 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts
  up to 35 kt and waves 7 to 10 ft occurring. For the Small Craft
  Advisory, west winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 7 to 10 ft expected.

* WHERE...Eagle River to Manitou Island MI, Huron Islands to 
  Marquette MI, Marquette to Munising MI, Munising to Grand 
  Marais MI and Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 7 PM EST this evening. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST 
  Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ245>247-264>267-072315-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230208T0000Z/
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
1013 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  waves 7 to 12 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Portions of Central, Eastern and Western Lake Superior.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ240>242-072315-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230208T0600Z/
Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
1013 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 /913 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023/

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  6 to 9 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI, Black River to 
  Ontonagon MI and Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal 
  MI.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ248-250-072100-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-230207T2100Z/
Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
1013 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and waves 
  3 to 6 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI and 5NM East of a 
  line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
Jablonski

708 
WHUS73 KMQT 072127
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
427 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

LMZ248-250-072230-
/O.EXP.KMQT.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-230207T2100Z/
Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
427 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

LSZ243-080530-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230208T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0020.230208T0000Z-230208T0600Z/
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
427 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts 
  up to 35 kt and waves 6 to 9 ft occurring. For the Small Craft 
  Advisory, west winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  waves 4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 7 PM EST this evening. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ244-248-249-080530-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230208T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0022.230208T0000Z-230208T0600Z/
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-
427 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts 
  up to 35 kt and waves 7 to 10 ft occurring. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, west winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  and waves 7 to 10 ft expected.

* WHERE...Eagle River to Manitou Island MI, Huron Islands to 
  Marquette MI and Marquette to Munising MI.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 7 PM EST this evening. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ250-251-080530-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230208T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMQT.SC.Y.0022.230208T0000Z-230208T1200Z/
Munising to Grand Marais MI-Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
427 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts 
  up to 35 kt and waves 7 to 10 ft occurring. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, west winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  and waves 7 to 10 ft expected.

* WHERE...Munising to Grand Marais MI and Grand Marais to 
  Whitefish Point MI.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 7 PM EST this evening. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ245>247-264>267-080000-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230208T0000Z/
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
427 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  waves 7 to 12 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Portions of Central, Eastern and Western Lake Superior.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ240>242-080530-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230208T0600Z/
Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
427 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 /327 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023/

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  6 to 9 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI, Black River to 
  Ontonagon MI and Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal 
  MI.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JSS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
446 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 445 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2023

Latest radar mosaic is quite active across the eastern half of Upper
Michigan early this morning as a shortwave and associated cold front
track through the forecast area.  With the relatively complex
temperature setup due to WAA and a passing cold front, ptype has
been ranging from rain across southern Menominee County to a wintry
mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow and also areas of all snow.
Under the higher reflectivities, some areas picked up a quick inch
or more of heavy, wet snow and eastern counties can expect as much
over the next few hours if it doesn't transition to a wintry mix.

For the rest of the day, expect some light LES/upslope showers
across WNW snowbelts as winds shift behind the front.  But, any
accumulations will be negligible.  Nonetheless, breezy west winds
with sustained speeds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph could
result in blowing snow across higher terrain, and patchy fog will
lead to reduced visibilities for the morning commute.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 302 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2023

The last of the light LES flurries over the far east dies away this
evening as the peak of a high pressure ridge moves over the area. As
high pressure ridging remains over us tonight into Wednesday, expect
any remaining cloud cover to clear out tonight, allowing lows temps
to drop into the mid teens to low 20s across the UP. With sunny
skies remaining over us Wednesday, I wouldn't be surprised if much
of the area gets into the low 40s as ensembles show temps in the
90th percentile; some spots, such as the downslope areas along Lake
Superior in the western half, may even get into the mid 40s for a
high Wednesday.

The clear skies won't last long, however, as a low pressure from the
Southern Plains and a Clipper low move towards the Upper Great
Lakes. This brings cloudy skies back over the area Wednesday night.
Model guidance has converged quite a bit since yesterday morning in
regards to the track of the Southern Plains low. Now the majority of
model guidance agrees that the sfc low will track through northern
Lower MI, although the 00z NAM12km still shows the sfc low going
through the Straits of Mackinac. What does this mean? Well, it looks
like that the central and eastern UP could very well see a
significant wet snowfall event. While there is still a chance that
some sleet, freezing rain, and rain could sneak into the area
Thursday, particularly in the south central and east, odds are that
the p-type remains snow throughout the event. Now, there is still
some uncertainty with where the heaviest snowfall will occur, as the
Clipper low mentioned earlier is expected to phase with the other
low moving towards northern Lower MI at this time. However, based on
current model guidance, the heaviest snowfall looks to occur during
the day Thursday, particularly in the afternoon. In addition to the
snowfall, some breezy conditions could be seen across the area due
to the tight pressure gradient of the phasing low moving into
northern Lower MI, although the strongest winds with this system
should be far south of us via a 50+ kt LLJ streaking across southern
Lower MI. Thus travel may be hazardous in the central and east
Thursday as wet snowfall could quickly accumulate on roads, and
snowfall rates and patchy blowing snow may greatly reduce
visibilities at times. In addition, some power outages could be
possible. With CAA cycling over the region behind the phased low
Thursday night into Friday, expect some lake-enhanced snowfall to
move over the NW snow belts Thursday night, eventually becoming LES
early Friday morning; would not be surprised to see a few inches of
fluffier snowfall fall across the NW snow belts near the Lake
Superior shoreline Thursday night into Friday morning. As ridging
moves back into the region Friday, expect the LES to slowly die out,
eventually ending Friday night.

While there is quite a bit of model spread early next week in
regards to precipitation, ensemble and deterministic guidance do show
temps being well above normal late in the forecast period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1121 PM EST MON FEB 6 2023

Light snow will move out of the area later tonight into Tue morning.
This will lead to a gradual improvement in the TAFS with IFR
conditions at all sites going to MVFR Tue morning and to VFR Tue
afternoon into the evening.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 335 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2023

Behind a cold front that pushes through the lake this morning,
expect winds to become WNW'rly at 30 to gales of 35 knots, with the
highest winds seen over the eastern half of the lake where a Gale
Warning remains in effect until 7 PM tonight. As ridging moves in
from the west this evening, expect winds to rapidly decrease.
However, with a tight pressure gradient setting up over the western
lake late tonight, expect SW'rly winds to pick up to 20 to 30 knots
across the western half, remaining so until Wednesday morning. Light
winds of 20 knots or less are expected to remain over the lake until
Thursday night, when NW'rly winds of 25 to 30 knots move over Lake
Superior due to a shot of CAA from Canada behind a phased low; a few
gale-force gusts up to 35 knots are possible, as well as some heavy
freezing spray over the central lake Friday morning. As the CAA
weakens, expect winds to weaken as well Friday, eventually becoming
20 knots or less again by Friday night. As a Clipper moves into
northern Ontario Saturday, some SW'rly winds of 20 to 30 knots could
be seen, with the strongest winds over the western half of the lake.
With weak ridging moving back towards us Sunday, expect light winds
to move back over the area by then.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ243>248-264-265.

  Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 5 AM EST early this morning for LMZ248-250.

&&

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TAP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
332 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2023

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-072045-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
332 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 /232 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan and western Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Snow showers will transition to a wintry mix late tonight, with
wet snow, rain, sleet, and freezing drizzle possible. This could
make some slick spots on the morning commute. Southerly gusts up
to 35 to 40 mph could result in blowing snow along the Lake
Superior shores, reducing visibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Accumulating wet snow is possible Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-072045-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
332 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 /232 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake
Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Southerly gales to 40 knots are expected tonight. See the latest
Marine Weather Message for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Westerly gales to 40 knots are expected Tuesday. See the latest
Marine Weather Message for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-072045-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
332 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Southerly gales to 40 knots are expected tonight. See the latest
Marine Weather Message for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

GS
GS