Alert archive / Minnesota / Winter Storm Watches in 2023

Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS Twin Cities, MN

February 19, 202342 counties in Minnesota; 9 counties in Wisconsin

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this winter storm watch at Feb 19, 2023, 2:30 PM CST for 42 counties in Minnesota; 9 counties in Wisconsin. It took effect at Feb 21, 2023, 12:00 PM CST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 19, 2023, 2:30 PM CST (20:30 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 21, 2023, 12:00 PM CST
Expired
Feb 20, 2023, 8:55 PM CST
In force
Issued by
NWS Twin Cities, MN
All 51 counties

Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Pope County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Steele County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Barron County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 17 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2023-02-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2023-02-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -33 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1271 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

471 
WWUS43 KMPX 192030
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
230 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

MNZ047-048-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092-200430-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/
Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-
Watonwan-Blue Earth-Martin-Faribault-
Including the cities of Morris, Glenwood, Madison, Benson, 
Montevideo, Willmar, Litchfield, Granite Falls, Olivia, 
Hutchinson, Gaylord, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St Peter, St James, 
Mankato, Fairmont, and Blue Earth
230 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of greater
  than 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph and
  lead to areas of blowing snow, blizzard conditions possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. 
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 
  The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold 
  wind chills as low as 20 below zero could result in 
  hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will be two main waves of this event.
  The first Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning will see
  totals of 4 to 8 inches of snow. There will be a lull before
  snow picks up again Wednesday evening where an additional 8 or
  more inches of snow could fall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

MNZ041>045-049>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-200430-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230222T0000Z-230224T0000Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-
Isanti-Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-
Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Waseca-Steele-Freeborn-Polk-
Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, 
Princeton, Mora, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Cambridge, 
Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, 
Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, 
Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, Waseca, Owatonna, Albert Lea, 
Osceola, Rice Lake, Ladysmith, Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, 
Durand, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire
230 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of greater
  than 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph and
  lead to areas of blowing snow, blizzard conditions possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central, 
  southeast and west central Minnesota and northwest and west 
  central Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commutes. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could 
  cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will be two main waves of this event.
  The first Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning will see
  totals of 4 to 8 inches of snow. There will be a lull before
  snow picks up again Wednesday evening where an additional 8 or
  more inches of snow could fall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

NDC
3 follow-up statements
687 
WWUS43 KMPX 201022
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
422 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.A major winter storm will bring significant travel impacts 
across the region. Most locations can expect to see at least a 
foot of snow by the time it ends Thursday night. The worst 
conditions will be Wednesday evening through Thursday, as heavy 
snow combines with northeast wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, with some
areas in western Minnesota seeing gusts near 50 mph. This will 
lead to significant drifting snow, and whiteout conditions in open
areas.

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the entire area. Parts of
this Winter Storm Watch may get upgraded to a Winter Storm 
Warning later today for a band of snow that will move in on
Tuesday. The snow will let up Wednesday morning, but then
widespread heavy snow will develop later on Wednesday as the main
storm arrives. This main storm is expected to bring near a foot of
snow to most locations, with higher amounts possible across
central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Areas in western and
southern Minnesota may see blizzard conditions as well.

MNZ047-048-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092-202100-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/
Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-
Watonwan-Blue Earth-Martin-Faribault-
Including the cities of Morris, Glenwood, Madison, Benson, 
Montevideo, Willmar, Litchfield, Granite Falls, Olivia, 
Hutchinson, Gaylord, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St Peter, St James, 
Mankato, Fairmont, and Blue Earth
422 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with total snow accumulations of 12 to 18
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph late
  Wednesday into Thursday.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, and the
  gusty winds could bring down tree branches and cause power
  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid traveling late Wednesday and Thursday. Monitor the latest 
forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

MNZ041>045-049>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-202100-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230222T0000Z-230224T0000Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-
Isanti-Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-
Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Waseca-Steele-Freeborn-Polk-
Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, 
Princeton, Mora, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Cambridge, 
Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, 
Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, 
Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, Waseca, Owatonna, Albert Lea, 
Osceola, Rice Lake, Ladysmith, Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, 
Durand, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire
422 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 to 45 mph late 
  Wednesday into Thursday.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central, 
  southeast and west central Minnesota and northwest and west 
  central Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, and the
  gusty winds could bring down tree branches and cause power
  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid traveling late Wednesday and Thursday. Monitor the latest 
forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

jrb
734 
WWUS43 KMPX 202009
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
209 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.A major winter storm will bring significant travel impacts
across the region. Most locations can expect to see at least a
foot of snow by the time it ends Thursday night. The worst
conditions will be Wednesday evening through Thursday, as heavy
snow combines with northeast wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, with
some areas in western Minnesota seeing gusts near 50 mph. This
will lead to significant drifting snow, and whiteout conditions 
in open areas.

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for portions of central and
southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin where impacts will
be lesser with the initial snow band Tuesday evening into 
Wednesday morning. Additional accumulating snow will arrive with 
the main storm Wednesday afternoon that will require an upgrade 
of this Winter Storm Watch.

A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for portions of western
and southern Minnesota and most of the Twin Cities Metro. Forecast
confidence is high that 4 to 7 inches of snow will fall Tuesday
PM into Wednesday AM with the initial round of snow. 

The snow will lighten up Wednesday morning, but then widespread 
heavy snow will develop later on Wednesday afternoon as the main 
storm arrives. This main storm is expected to bring near an
additional foot of snow to most locations, with higher amounts 
possible across south-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. 
Areas in western and southern Minnesota may see blizzard 
conditions as well.

MNZ054>058-064-065-073-074-082-210915-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/
Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow Medicine-
Renville-Redwood-Brown-Watonwan-
Including the cities of Madison, Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, 
Litchfield, Granite Falls, Olivia, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, 
and St James
209 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 16 to 
  22 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From noon Tuesday to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. 
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 
  The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold 
  wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found
at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

&&

$$

MNZ059-060-062-063-068>070-076>078-084-085-210915-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230222T0000Z-230224T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230221T2100Z-230224T0000Z/
Wright-Hennepin-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-
Rice-Goodhue-Waseca-Steele-
Including the cities of Monticello, Minneapolis, St Paul, 
Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, 
Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, Waseca, and Owatonna
209 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 18 to 
  22 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and 
  southeast Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found
at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

&&

$$

MNZ066-067-075-083-210915-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230221T2100Z-230224T0000Z/
McLeod-Sibley-Nicollet-Blue Earth-
Including the cities of Hutchinson, Gaylord, St Peter, 
and Mankato
209 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 16 to 
  22 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...McLeod, Sibley, Nicollet and Blue Earth Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold 
  wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in 
  hypothermia if precautions are not taken.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found
at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

&&

$$

MNZ047-048-091-092-210915-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/
Stevens-Pope-Martin-Faribault-
Including the cities of Morris, Glenwood, Fairmont, 
and Blue Earth
209 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph late 
  Wednesday into Thursday.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, and 
  the gusty winds could bring down tree branches and cause power 
  outages.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

MNZ041>045-049>053-061-093-WIZ014>016-023>028-210915-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230222T0000Z-230224T0000Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-
Isanti-Chisago-Anoka-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-
Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, 
Princeton, Mora, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Cambridge, 
Center City, Blaine, Albert Lea, Osceola, Rice Lake, Ladysmith, 
Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, Durand, Chippewa Falls, 
and Eau Claire
209 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 to 45 mph late 
  Wednesday into Thursday.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central, 
  southeast and west central Minnesota and northwest and west 
  central Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, and 
  the gusty winds could bring down tree branches and cause power 
  outages.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

WFO MPX
542 
WWUS43 KMPX 210255
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
855 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...HISTORIC WINTER STORM SHOULD LEAD TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL BY 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...

.Two primary rounds of snow are expected. The first will arrive
Tuesday afternoon, tapering off early Wednesday. Accumulations of
3 to 7 inches are expected with round one. Round two will begin
Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday with an additional
10 to 20 inches expected. Total snow accumulations will range from
15 to 25 inches, with the best chance for the higher end totals 
across east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. This is
expected to reach the top 5 heaviest snow storms.

The worst conditions will be Wednesday evening through Thursday, 
as heavy snow combines with northeast wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph.
This will lead to significant blowing and drifting snow with 
whiteout conditions in open areas. Some drifts may be several feet
deep.

MNZ041>043-050-211215-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230222T0000Z-230224T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0009.230221T1800Z-230223T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230223T0000Z-230224T0000Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Benton-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, 
and Sauk Rapids
855 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow and blowing snow
  expected. Snow accumulations of 8 to 11 inches. Winds gusting as
  high as 45 mph. For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected.
  Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40
  mph. For the entire storm, total storm accumulations will range
  from 12 to 18 inches.

* WHERE...Douglas, Todd, Morrison and Benton Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 
  PM CST Thursday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from noon 
  Tuesday to 6 PM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.  
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills
  as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin 
  in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant drifting will occur due to the
  heavy snow totals and strong winds. Drifts may be several feet 
  deep. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found
at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

&&

$$

MNZ044-045-052-053-WIZ014>016-211215-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230222T0000Z-230224T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0009.230221T2100Z-230223T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230223T0000Z-230224T0000Z/
Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Isanti-Chisago-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
Including the cities of Princeton, Mora, Cambridge, Center City, 
Osceola, Rice Lake, and Ladysmith
855 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow and blowing snow
  expected. Snow accumulations of 10 to 15 inches. Winds gusting
  as high as 45 mph. For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow
  expected. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as
  high as 40 mph. For the entire storm, total storm accumulations
  will range from 14 to 19 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Minnesota and northwest 
  Wisconsin.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 
  PM CST Thursday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 3 PM 
  Tuesday to 6 PM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite 
  on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant drifting will occur due to the
  heavy snow totals and strong winds. Drifts may be several feet
  deep. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found
at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

&&

$$

MNZ091-092-211215-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230222T1200Z-230223T1800Z/
Martin-Faribault-
Including the cities of Fairmont and Blue Earth
855 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 12 to 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45
  mph.

* WHERE...Martin and Faribault Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. 
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant drifting will occur due to the
  heavy snow totals and strong winds. Drifts may be several feet
  deep. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found
at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

&&

$$

MNZ093-211215-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230222T0000Z-230224T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230222T1200Z-230223T1800Z/
Freeborn-
Including the city of Albert Lea
855 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 12 to 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45
  mph.

* WHERE...Freeborn County.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. 
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant drifting will occur due to the
  heavy snow totals and strong winds. Drifts may be several feet
  deep. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found
at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

&&

$$

MNZ047-048-211215-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/
Stevens-Pope-
Including the cities of Morris and Glenwood
855 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Snow accumulations
  of 4 to 6 inches Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by an
  additional 10 to 15 inches Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
  For the entire storm, total accumulations will range from 15 to
  20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph by Wednesday.

* WHERE...Stevens and Pope Counties.

* WHEN...From noon Tuesday to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as 
  low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
  little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant drifting will occur due to the
  heavy snow totals and strong winds. Drifts may be several feet
  deep. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found
at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

&&

$$

MNZ049-211215-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230222T0000Z-230224T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/
Stearns-
Including the city of St Cloud
855 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Snow accumulations
  of 4 to 7 inches Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by an
  additional 11 to 16 inches Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
  For the entire storm, total accumulations will range from 16 to
  22 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph by Wednesday.

* WHERE...Stearns County.

* WHEN...From noon Tuesday to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 
  The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant drifting will occur due to the
  heavy snow totals and strong winds. Drifts may be several feet
  deep. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found
at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

&&

$$

MNZ051-061-WIZ023>028-211215-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230222T0000Z-230224T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230221T2100Z-230224T0000Z/
Sherburne-Anoka-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Elk River, Blaine, Hudson, River Falls, 
Menomonie, Durand, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire
855 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Snow accumulations
  of 4 to 7 inches Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by an
  additional 14 to 19 inches Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
  For the entire storm, total accumulations will range from 18 to
  24 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph by Wednesday.

* WHERE...Portions of central and east central Minnesota and 
  west central Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant drifting will occur due to the
  heavy snow totals and strong winds. Drifts may be several feet
  deep. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found
at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

&&

$$

MNZ054>058-064-065-073-074-082-211215-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/
Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow Medicine-
Renville-Redwood-Brown-Watonwan-
Including the cities of Madison, Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, 
Litchfield, Granite Falls, Olivia, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, 
and St James
855 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO
NOON CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Snow accumulations
  of 4 to 6 inches Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by an
  additional 14 to 19 inches Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
  For the entire storm, total accumulations will range from 18 to
  24 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph by Wednesday.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From noon Tuesday to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills
  as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin 
  in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant drifting will occur due to the
  heavy snow totals and strong winds. Drifts may be several feet
  deep. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found
at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

&&

$$

MNZ059-060-062-063-066>070-075>078-083>085-211215-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230221T2100Z-230224T0000Z/
Wright-Hennepin-Ramsey-Washington-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-
Dakota-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-
Including the cities of Monticello, Minneapolis, St Paul, 
Stillwater, Hutchinson, Gaylord, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, 
Shakopee, Hastings, St Peter, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, 
Mankato, Waseca, and Owatonna
855 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO
6 PM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Snow accumulations
  of 4 to 7 inches Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by an
  additional 14 to 19 inches Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
  For the entire storm, total accumulations will range from 18 to
  25 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph by Wednesday.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and 
  southeast Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. 
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant drifting will occur due to the
  heavy snow totals and strong winds. Drifts may be several feet
  deep. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found
at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

&&

$$

Borghoff

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Feb 19, 11:18 AM CST, 3 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 19, 11:18 AM CST, 3 hours 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1118 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

Updated to include 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Today, A few hours of dense fog this morning ahead of the
approaching cold front.

- Monday, A quick moving clipper system will bring a few inches of
accumulating snow north of I-94.

- Tuesday through Thursday: A major winter storm remains on track to
  bring heavy snow along with gusty winds and drifting across the
  region. This system will be extremely disruptive, especially late
  Wednesday through Thursday.

TODAY...Early morning satellite and surface obs showed a cold front
approaching from the northwest. Ahead of this front, winds were
light, and there were areas of dense fog across the region. This
dense fog will last a few hours until the northwest winds associated
with the aforementioned front mix it out. The rest of today will
have falling temperatures behind the front, and winds of 15 to 20
mph.

MONDAY...A fast moving clipper system will bring a few inches of
snow across northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Areas along
and south of I-94 should see around a dusting to an inch, with
higher amounts north of I-94, and nothing expected to the south near
the Minnesota River Valley and I-90. The snow should approach from
the northwest before sunrise, and exit the region during the
afternoon. Forecast soundings show wind gusts near 30 mph at times
after the snow ends. Temperatures will moderate into the 30s for
most locations, which should help improve any slippery roads.

WINTER STORM, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A major winter storm
remains on track to bring heavy snow along with gusty winds and
drifting snow across the region. There are high probabilities (70 to
90 percent) that many locations will see over a foot of snow by the
time it ends Thursday night. It's the timing of this snow that is
the focus of the next paragraph.

Despite the high confidence of a major winter storm, we have not
issued a Winter Storm Watch yet. We anticipate these to be issued
later today. The reason we held off is due to timing. We'd like to
hone in on the band of snow that will fall Tuesday, while also
taking into consideration the widespread heavy snow and strong winds
that will follow Wednesday through Thursday. As mentioned in the
previous discussion, Tuesday's snow will be driven primarily by low
level frontogenesis. These types of setups tend to produce higher
amounts over a small area than the global models and ensemble suites
indicate. The current forecast suggests that areas just north of I-
90, and south of I-94 could see 5 to 9 inches of snow with this
initial band by Wednesday morning. These amounts would merit a
Winter Storm Watch, but we also need to consider the second part of
this system, which is widespread heavy snow developing Wednesday and
lasting through Thursday night. This should produce another 6 to 12
inches of snow across the entire forecast area, with some locations
getting up to as much as 15 inches. In addition, northeast winds
increase and become northwest during this second part of the storm,
with wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. This would support a
Winter Storm Watch across all counties, along with blizzard
conditions for western and southern Minnesota.

So in summary, no winter storm headlines were issued overnight
because we didn't want to send mixed-messages by including only some
counties for Tuesday's band of snow, when all counties will see
significant winter impacts late Wednesday through Thursday.
Confidence remains high in a major winter storm starting Tuesday,
and lasting through Thursday. There will be a small lull between
Tuesday's band of snow and the widespread snow that develops late
Wednesday, but it may be more of a transition to light snow, than a
clean break.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Friday morning may start off quite cold,
especially if skies can clear behind the departing winter storm.
Lows of -5 to -15 are likely, but winds will be light so wind chills
are a non-factor. There is a small chance for snow Friday into
Saturday, mainly east of I-35, but amounts should be light.
Otherwise temperatures will moderate closer to normal by next
weekend. No changes were made to the blended guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

MVFR with IFR possible as a cold front passes through today.
Northwest winds will increase after the frontal passage, with gusts
near 20 kts. Clouds will lift and scatter out this evening, and then
winds will lighten up overnight and take on a more southerly
direction before turning light and variable overnight. Winds will
ramp up out of the SSE on Monday morning ahead of another fast-
moving system that will bring snow to KAXN/KSTC/KRNH and possibly
KMSP and KEAU on Monday. MVFR cigs will return with the cold front
passage on Monday.

KMSP...
MVFR clouds will linger into mid-afternoon. Winds will be northwest
around 10kts, with some gusts possible. Later today expect VFR
conditions as winds decrease and become more southerly. Winds will
turn more light and variable overnight. MVFR cigs return Monday
morning as a cold front approaches from the NW. There is a chance for
some snow to move in Monday morning, but it does not look to bring
MVFR vsby at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR with MVFR/IFR/-SN likely late, and LIFR possible. Winds
NNW at 10G20 kts.
Wed...MVFR/IFR -SN likely, with LIFR possible. Winds NE at 15G25
kts.
Thu...IFR/SN with LIFR/+SN possible, then MVFR/VFR late. Wind NE
bcmg NW at 15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...BPH
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 19, 3:39 AM CST, 10 hours 51 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
339 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

MNZ041>045-047>053-055-057>063-066-068>070-078-WIZ014>016-023>028-
200945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Swift-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-
Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-McLeod-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Goodhue-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-
Eau Claire-
339 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...southeast Minnesota...west
central Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Up to 2 inches of accumulating snow is likely along and north of
Interstate 94 on Monday, with the highest amounts to the north.

For Tuesday through Thursday, a large and slow-moving storm is
likely to bring significant snowfall and travel impacts across
all of central and southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ054-056-064-065-067-073>077-082>085-091>093-200945-
Lac Qui Parle-Chippewa-Yellow Medicine-Renville-Sibley-Redwood-
Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-
Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
339 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...south central Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and
west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

For Tuesday through Thursday, a large and slow-moving storm is
likely to bring significant snowfall and travel impacts across
all of central and southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in Minnesota, 2023Winter Storm Watches in Wisconsin, 2023Every winter storm watch in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.