Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1222 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Forecast remains on track despite a few showers across the area this
morning. More showers and storms are expected this afternoon, with
the key takeaway being that they will be scattered in nature and hard
to predict convection for any singular spot. Any showers that develop
will deminish after sunset.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- An active period ahead, with several chances for thunderstorms and
  rain.

- Isolated thunderstorms likely this afternoon across east-central MN
  and western WI as a weak sfc front moves through. A few severe
  thunderstorms could be possible.

- Thursday evening/night, thunderstorms likely with some severe
  weather possible depending on timing and location.

- Sunday/night, another chance for thunderstorms, but severe weather
  threat still uncertain.

Today... Current radar imagery shows an area of showers over central
Minnesota and it'll continue a slow southward movement before
dissipating later this morning. Elsewhere, it's quiet with an area
of thunderstorms over SE SD that will stay to off to the SW of S MN.
Chances become more widespread this afternoon as instability builds
ahead of the shortwave trough. Forecast soundings build in 500-
1000J/Kg MLCAPE along and ahead of a weak sfc cold front, but there
will be 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear, is largely perpendicular
to the front, some stronger storms could develop this afternoon as
the front moves through MN and western WI. An upgrade to marginal
risk occurred with SPC's SWO day 1 update. The marginal risk starts
in the eastern Dakotas and stretches east through MN and WI into the
western UP of MI with the concern of damaging winds and large hail.
The same system produced isolated severe thunderstorms across
northern MN on Tuesday. Any TS will taper off after sunset.
Temperatures drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s tonight with
partly cloudy skies.

Thursday and Friday... A complex of thunderstorms will develop over
the Dakotas and move east to impact portions of western Minnesota
Thursday evening into Friday. There is also considerable model and
ensemble spread with this shortwave feature. The EPS/ECMWF have been
stronger with better low level jet response ahead of the system than
the GEFS/GFS. Overall, not much change to the forecast from previous
updates as we find ourselves in the gap between the global models and
the hires CAMs guidance that'll become available as we near the
event. The SPC marginal risk was updated for day 2, expanding
coverage into portions of south central MN, the 5 percent hail/wind
as the primary hazards. The nocturnal timing of the complex should
limit severe potential as it gets later into Thursday night. Some
guidance continues to hint as a conditional threat for storms on
Friday afternoon.

Saturday through Wednesday... Northwesterly flow aloft will continue
to dominate the pattern with various shortwaves moving through the
region every 48 hours or so. There is reasonable agreement with
another shortwave to move through the Upper Midwest on Sunday.
Guidance varies with the intensity of the feature, but there could
be enough instability/shear for another round of organized
convection. However, it'll be another chance for much needed
rainfall across the region. Temperatures will remain seasonable for
the period with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the
upper 50s and 60s. The pattern looks to remain active into next week
with another shortwave toward mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Scattered TS will develop this afternoon, especially across eastern
MN and WI. Coverage isn't high enough to include prevailing at any
site, but all TAF sites will have a chance. Kept TEMPO going for most
terminals, excluding AXN and RWF.

KMSP...TS are possible any time between 19-02Z. The most
concentrated convection is expected between 20-24Z, but due to the
anticipated scattered nature, continued as TEMPO and not prevailing.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR with SHRA/TSRA likely late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc aftn TSRA. Wind W 10-15G25 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...PEM
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...PEM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
304 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
100815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
304 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across the
region. There is a chance for an isolated severe storm or two
capable of producing gusty winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There are several chances for thunderstorms Thursday through
Monday.

More importantly, the two periods with the best chances for
seeing thunderstorms, including severe weather, will be Thursday
evening into Friday and Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

BPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

MNZ049-058-059-091800-
Stearns MN-Meeker MN-Wright MN-
1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Wright,
northeastern Meeker and south central Stearns Counties through 100 PM
CDT...

At 1223 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Watkins, or 22 miles southwest of St. Cloud, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Watkins around 1235 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Kimball and
Annandale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4530 9462 4538 9454 4531 9410 4514 9425
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 283DEG 31KT 4533 9453

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

ETA