Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
338 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warmer, above-normal temperatures through Saturday, cooler to
  start next week, then warmer again mid-to-late next week.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday with potential
  for a few strong to severe thunderstorms today into this evening.

- No beneficial widespread precipitation forecast over the next
  week.

- A return of Canadian wildfire haze/smoke to the area Friday into
  the weekend.

TODAY... Current radar imagery reveals a cluster of thunderstorms
along and south of I-90. A few sites in N IA have reported 40+ kt
gusts associated with the TS clusters. This initiation is running a
few hours earlier than what guidance had so the assumption is we'll
continue to see additional development over SW MN with an agitated
CU field present on visible imagery. Temperatures have warmed into
the mid to upper 80s across the region with dew points in the mid to
upper 60s across W and S MN where the better low level moisture
plume is present. Further north, diurnal mixing has lowered the dew
points across the Twin Cities and portions of central MN. This
should limit TS potential until later in the afternoon/evening
hours. The culprit for scattered TS in the Twin Cities can be
tracked back to NW MN where an area of showers and storms has
developed over the past hour or two. Forecast soundings indicate 30
to 40kts of shear with plenty of instability but the lack of
significant low level forcing should be the limiting factor for
today's potential. If outflow boundaries begin to get into play we
could see locally enhanced TS potential. The SPC SWO maintained a
slight risk across S MN into the Twin Cities. Main severe hazard
will be the potential for damaging winds and large hail with any
strong to severe storms that.

TONIGHT through THURSDAY... Precip chances will gradually shift
southeast overnight. The best chances for rain will be S MN, W MN,
and W WI but we're not expecting any widespread beneficial rain with
this event. Any rainfall received from storms today/tonight will not
make an improvement with the ongoing drought and the hit-and-miss
nature of storms will mean most areas will receive little to no rain
while others receive highly localized heavy rain. Low stratus or
patchy dense fog could develop outside of the Twin Cities late
tonight. Forecast dew point depressions will be near-zero for a few
hours before sunrise Friday morning.

The other concern is the return of Canadian wildfire smoke to the
region Friday into Saturday. Guidance brings in a dense swath of
smoke arriving from the northwest and encompassing much of Minnesota
into western Wisconsin on Friday. An Air Quality Alert was issued by
the MPCA for the entire state to address degraded air quality
associated with the wildfire smoke. This would also bring a return
of hazy sky/visibility conditions that go along with wildfire smoke.
I've opted to continue with Haze to the gridded/text products but
should model continuity provide higher confidence, explicit Smoke
mention along with reduced visibilities may also needed to be added
to the forecast.

Friday will bring another chance for scattered showers and storms
across the Upper MS valley that will be diurnally driven. A cold
front will move through on Saturday which will bring cooler-than-
normal temperatures for the second half of the weekend into early
next week. A few rain showers may occur over our WI counties
Saturday afternoon as another embedded sfc trough pivots thru the
upper low over east-central Canada. However, precipitation chances
dry up as the weekend progresses as the low drops south into the
Upper Great Lakes this weekend. This will bring drier, continental
polar airmass into our region, which should greatly decrease any low
level moisture necessary for precipitation. With already relatively
dry mid-levels we will remain dry through the middle of next week.
Temperatures will rebound toward the end of the forecast period with
highs back into the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Some MVFR cigs remain over western WI with isol SHRA just outside of
our WI sites. VFR conditions will prevail from this afternoon
through tonight. The primary forecast concern is the potential precip
chances/timing. Scattered SHRA/TSRA from late this afternoon through
tonight but forecast confidence remains low with timing/placement.
Best timing of precip looks to be after 00z this evening across
central MN and after 02/03z E MN and W WI so have opted to not
mention precip at this point and let CAMs come into better agreement
on the timing/placement of such activity before adding it into the
TAFs. Another concern for Friday AM is the potential for patchy low
stratus/BR development with dew point depressions near 0. Finally,
Friday afternoon will see the return of Canadian wildfire smoke but
I've opted to keep HZ out from non-MSP sites for now.

KMSP... VFR this afternoon with SCT diurnal CU with southwesterly
winds gusting up to 20kts. Primary concern is later this evening with
potential for -SHRA and TS to move across the site. Given the low
confidence with this event, introduced only a PROB30 for TSRA. Fog is
possible to develop early tomorrow morning but confidence lacked
with inclusion in the TAF at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 15G30 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 15G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH/RMD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
244 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
141945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
244 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across S and W MN this
afternoon. A few storms over central through southern Minnesota
may be strong to severe, potentially producing damaging winds or
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Canadian wildfire smoke will return to the region Friday and
lasting into the weekend. There is an Air Quality Alert on Friday
for the entire state of Minnesota due to degraded air quality.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into
tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
618 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Hail             Belgrade                45.46N 95.01W
07/13/2023  E1.75 inch       Stearns            MN   Fire Dept/Rescue

&&

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
624 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

WIZ027-028-140000-
Chippewa WI-Eau Claire WI-
624 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Chippewa and northeastern Eau Claire Counties through 700 PM CDT...

At 624 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cadott, or 19 miles northeast of Eau Claire, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Boyd around 635 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Stanley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4492 9126 4504 9117 4499 9092 4488 9092
      4475 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 297DEG 21KT 4495 9114

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
629 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ049-140000-
Stearns MN-
629 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Stearns County through 700 PM CDT...

At 629 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Melrose, or 28 miles southwest of Little Falls, moving southeast at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Freeport around 635 PM CDT.
  St. Anthony around 640 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Albany and Avon.

This includes Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 132 and
153.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4567 9489 4577 9481 4565 9440 4549 9459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 297DEG 27KT 4568 9476

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
638 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     Hail             1 N Melrose             45.69N 94.81W
07/13/2023  M1.00 inch       Stearns            MN   Law Enforcement

            pea to quarter sized hail.

0635 PM     Hail             3 W New Sweden          44.40N 94.25W
07/13/2023  E1.25 inch       Nicollet           MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ049-057-058-140030-
Kandiyohi MN-Stearns MN-Meeker MN-
643 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Meeker,
south central Stearns and eastern Kandiyohi Counties through 730 PM
CDT...

At 643 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Paynesville, or 21 miles northeast of Willmar, moving southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Watkins.

This includes U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 96 and 107.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4529 9426 4525 9426 4505 9445 4532 9485
      4543 9472
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 298DEG 29KT 4533 9470

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
646 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ041-048-140030-
Pope MN-Douglas MN-
646 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Douglas
and northwestern Pope Counties through 730 PM CDT...

At 646 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kensington, or 17 miles southwest of Alexandria, moving southeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Lowry and Starbuck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4579 9527 4558 9552 4571 9576 4589 9576
      4590 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 302DEG 23KT 4580 9569

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH