Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Severe threat has decreased for this afternoon/evening.

- Marginal risk remains across S MN, Twin Cities, and W WI. Primary
  threat is the potential for damaging wind gusts.

- Showers/Storms develop after 4PM across west central MN and trek
  eastward thru the evening hours.

- Near normal temperatures with a few chances for rain Wednesday
  through early next week.

Today and tonight... Radar imagery shows the remnants of this
morning's convection has moved off to the east of W WI leaving behind
a few showers in Eau Claire/Chippewa/Rusk counties. So has this
morning's convection impacted round two for this evening? Yes. The
most noticeable is that temperatures have struggled to warm up in
wake of the storms. That's likely due to the increased mid to high
level cirrus blanketing the much of the Upper MS valley. Weak low
level WAA hasn't been able to advance temperatures much beyond the
lower 80s across the I-90 corridor while temperatures elsewhere have
struggled to hit the mid 70s. So our chances for severe weather this
afternoon and evening have decreased. After collaboration with the
SPC and neighboring WFOs, the 20z day 1 SWO removed the Slight risk
from Minnesota and Wisconsin. The marginal risk remains present in
the Twin Cities south to the I-90 corridor and across western WI.

Does that mean we'll be dry for Independence Day firework
celebrations tonight? Not entirely. While our severe risk has
decreased, additional shower/storm development is likely along the
frontal boundary. Model guidance hasn't been particularly great
today, but they've trended in the right direction the past few runs.
The second round should begin to develop in earnest after 21z from
southwest MN to northwest WI. Coverage should increase between 22z-
00z as the front begins to push into central MN. The severe threat
may be lower, but is not zero. A few of these storms could be strong
to severe with the potential to produce damaging winds. While the
hail threat should be limited and the tornado threat should be
minimal due to low RH below 10kft and a veered flow pattern in the
boundary layer. SFC dew points remain elevated, in the mid to upper
60s, and some pooling in the upper 60s and lower 70s ahead of the
cold front is likely. Along the immediate frontal zone, an uptick to
25-35 kts of effective bulk shear is expected. This would support
organized multicell clusters along the frontal boundary. Current
forecast has the Twin Cities drying out between 03z-05z (NW to SE)
while western WI will see the TS and showers pick up tonight into
Wednesday morning. Temperatures cool off behind the front tonight
with lows dropping into the lower to mid 50s across western and
central MN

Wednesday through Monday... Cooler and drier air moves in on
Wednesday behind the frontal passage. Some additional showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible ahead of the front early in the
day in parts of southern MN and western WI. Behind the front will be
our coolest day of the week with gradually clearing skies as the
front moves east. High pressure will bring clearer skies and warmer,
but still likely below normal temperatures on Thursday. Friday into
early next week will be a period of near normal temperatures with
multiple chances for rain. We will see multiple shortwaves pass
through the Upper Midwest that could provide the forcing for some
rain. The uncertainty with precipitation with these waves is well
reflected in the spread in ensemble QPF in the GEFS, CMC, and EPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

VFR conditions thru the period for most sites. A cold front passage
will bring a brief period of SHRA thru this evening and tonight. Cigs
should remain aoa030. KEAU is the only site where TSRA is expected
this evening. MVFR or worse conditions possible with TSRA. All sites
will see winds shift to the NW and pick up gusts just after sunrise
Wed AM.

KMSP... TS development is forecast to remain S and E of the terminal
this evening. SHRA will move through along the cold front tonight but
expect VFR conditions to prevail thru the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...BPH/NDC
AVIATION...BPH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
256 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
052000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
256 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this
evening into the overnight hours. A few storms may be strong with
large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
712 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Durand                  44.63N 91.97W
07/04/2023                   Pepin              WI   Public

            Facebook photo of an uprooted tree in
            Durand.

&&

CTG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
744 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Funnel Cloud     6 SE Plum City          44.58N 92.10W
07/04/2023                   Pepin              WI   Law Enforcement

            Reported near Porcupine in Pepin County. So
            far there have not been any reports of trees
            or power lines down to indicate ground
            contact.

&&

tdk

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
813 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

WIZ024-026-050200-
Pierce WI-Pepin WI-
813 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Pepin
and southeastern Pierce Counties through 900 PM CDT...

At 813 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bay City, or 8 miles northeast of Red Wing, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Plum City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4456 9206 4455 9237 4456 9248 4457 9249
      4463 9252 4475 9217
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 254DEG 19KT 4461 9240

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CTG