Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
714 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

This Evening...Thunderstorms continue across mainly western
Wisconsin, with the main threat being locally heavy rain. The cold
pool has outrun the main convection, and the risk for damaging wind
or hail is low. Meanwhile a narrow ribbon of 1000 to 2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE remains across central Minnesota. HiRes models continue to
indicate that thunderstorms will develop later this evening,
generally in the 8pm-9pm time frame, and move eastward. The upper
level jet will aid in forcing for ascent, but the effective shear
will remain around 30 kts, or on the lower end of the severe weather
threshold. With that said, a few storms could end up producing some
severe hail or gusty winds later this evening into the early
overnight hours, but the window of opportunity is small as the
instability starts to decrease after sunset, and the convection
transitions to mainly showers after midnight. Otherwise the rest of
the forecast remains on track, with a cool, breezy, and cloudy day
tomorrow with scattered rain showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms through this evening, some
  strong to severe with large hail and strong winds.

- Rain lingers through Sunday, some isolated thunder possible, with
  the next chance for rain mid to late next week.

- Cooler, closer to normal, temperatures over the next week.

Well-developed low pressure center is slowly rotating eastward over
the eastern Dakotas this afternoon, with a well-defined warm sector
over the WFO MPX coverage area. Plenty of low-mid level moisture is
available as shown by the morning MPX RAOB (1.3" PWAT) and dewpoints
in the low-mid 60s over most of the coverage area, particularly the
MN side. The surface low will have minimal motion eastward through
this evening and the overnight hours, only moving to nearly atop KMSP
by daybreak Sunday. As such, gradually veering winds with height will
remain in place over southern MN in conjunction with modest low-level
jetting under the southern periphery of the upper-level trough. While
upper level support isn't overly impressive, which is contributing to
the more chaotic nature of storm development and organization at the
start, additional storm development is expected through the rest of
the afternoon-evening hours due to plentiful leftover residual
boundaries from the decaying morning convection. Per multiple CAMs,
several rounds of storms can be expected from late this afternoon
through most of tonight as the surface low and associated upper low
move into and over central-southern MN in tandem tonight. The low
LCLs and elevated SRHs in the 0-1km and 0-3km layers will contribute
to a few storms containing rotation leading to funnel clouds and/or a
tornado or two. As the evening progresses, more storm mergers are
expected to transition the main hazards to large hail and
strong/damaging wind gusts. Overall coverage will not be all that
much but the best timing of any severe thunderstorms will be through
about 03z or so. In addition, slow storm motions within this highly
moist environment will also be conducive to pockets of heavy rain
through this evening. Storm intensity will diminish late evening
through the overnight hours as the individual storms move off to the
east and northeast, distancing themselves from the better instability
to the west. There will be a small lull in the activity close to
daybreak Sunday morning then additional showers and few non-severe
thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as the upper low moves atop the
coverage area, resulting in showers rotating over MN/WI during the
day tomorrow. Rain chances will gradually diminish Sunday evening
through Sunday night as the surface low picks up impetus to move into
the Great Lakes and weak high pressure moves into the Upper Midwest
from the Dakotas. Generally dry weather will persist across the WFO
MPX coverage area Monday into Tuesday. However, as a more zonal to
northwest flow aloft develops over the northern tier states combined
with a quasi-stationary front settling over the region, rain chances
will return to the forecast for the middle to latter portion of next
week.

As for temperatures, the prolonged heat of the past few days will be
a thing of the past as more seasonal/normal temperature values take
hold over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Periods of showers and thunderstorms this evening, transitioning to
mainly rain showers late tonight into Sunday. Clouds will increase as
well, with MVFR ceilings expected. Winds will become northwest as
colder air moves across the region, with gusts near 20 kts during the
late morning and afternoon.

KMSP...
Most of the convection will be over by 00Z, but there will be a
second area of storms to the west that develops around 02Z, and this
could impact KMSP later this evening. Once it moves through, expect
mainly rain showers with MVFR clouds.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...Mainly VFR. Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 15G25kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts becoming NE.
Wed...Mainly VFR. Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...JRB
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
253 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
251200-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
253 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Air Quality Alert for ozone remains in effect through this
evening for western Wisconsin.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected through this evening.
Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible for areas south
of Interstate 94, particularly near the Interstate 90 corridor.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards but a tornado
cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected for much of the
area during the daytime hours on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and
evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
818 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

MNZ066-250145-
McLeod MN-
818 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern McLeod
County through 845 PM CDT...

At 817 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Silver Lake, or 6 miles southeast of Hutchinson, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Silver Lake, Winsted and Lester Prairie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4480 9437 4498 9421 4498 9405 4496 9401
      4490 9401 4475 9431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 220DEG 11KT 4485 9426

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Dye

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
835 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

MNZ043-044-250215-
Mille Lacs MN-Morrison MN-
835 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Mille
Lacs and east central Morrison Counties through 915 PM CDT...

At 835 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Onamia, or 19 miles south of Mille Lacs Lake, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Onamia around 840 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Vineland.

This includes U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 206 and 229.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4597 9357 4594 9383 4616 9392 4616 9381
      4622 9382 4624 9381 4625 9373 4625 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 171DEG 22KT 4603 9372

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
902 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

MNZ047-048-055-250245-
Stevens MN-Pope MN-Swift MN-
902 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Pope,
southeastern Stevens and northwestern Swift Counties through 945 PM
CDT...

At 902 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Hancock, or 12 miles south of Morris, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hancock around 915 PM CDT.

This includes U.S. Highway 59 between mile markers 149 and 159.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4533 9595 4544 9601 4560 9575 4559 9544
      4541 9548
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 234DEG 28KT 4542 9585

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
937 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

MNZ059-060-066-068-250300-
Hennepin MN-McLeod MN-Carver MN-Wright MN-
937 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central
Hennepin, south central Wright, east central McLeod and northwestern
Carver Counties through 1000 PM CDT...

At 936 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Delano to Glencoe. Movement was northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Delano and Watertown around 940 PM CDT.
  Rockford around 945 PM CDT.
  Minnetrista, Independence and Maple Plain around 950 PM CDT.
  Orono and Norwood Young America around 955 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Maple Grove,
Waconia, Corcoran, Medina and Mayer.

This includes U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 135 and 140.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4510 9349 4478 9391 4477 9422 4508 9384
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 247DEG 28KT 4504 9381 4478 9416

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dye