Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
626 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Thunderstorms expected today into tonight, some could be strong
  with wind and hail as the main threats.

- Rain lingers into Sunday, some isolated thunder possible, with the
  next chance for rain mid to late next week.

- Cooler, closer to normal temperatures, over the next week.

Today... Today the main low will move into Minnesota and with it we
will see our best synoptic lift and best chance for rain. This
combined with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches will give
us the ingredients for heavy rain. On the convective side ample
shear, which we have seen little of so far this year, could support
some stronger storms. With a cooler day today through we are not
expecting as much instability to build, but if we can clear out for
part of the day to really heat up this will increase the chances for
strong storms this afternoon. Also a factor for later today will be
how the convection over South Dakota evolves as it moves east.
Looking into the CAMs, especially the HRRR, there is an expectation
of this linear system holding together into Iowa and maybe even parts
of southern Minnesota. The southern end of the line has looked
better in radar observations and in the CAMs, but how far north it
will hold together remains a question. Looking at an ensemble like
the HREF it does appear most likely to see this line weaken as it
moves east allowing us time for convective recovery for the main
round of thunderstorms to occur in the afternoon and evening today.
For hazards the greatest risk in the morning would be wind,
especially if the linear storm mode holds. Later today more discrete
to scattered multicells are favored with more of a hail threat.
Tornadoes also cannot be ruled out as forecast LCLs look the become
rather low by this evening and this combined with sfc to 1 km SRH in
the HRRR in the 150 to 200 m2/s2 range would provide a supportive
environment for rotating storms. Bottom line today is the most
favorable environment for strong to severe storms that we have seen
so far this year, so if you have outdoor plans make sure to have a
way to keep updated with the weather. Some storms should continue
into tonight, but as an MCS is not expected, so the loss of the
diurnal heating should lead to a reduction in the severe threat.

Sunday... As the main low moves east on Sunday we will move into the
wrap around side of the low. This will be an environment more
favorable to rain showers than thunderstorms. We could still see
some thunderstorms, but nothing severe is expected. The back of the
low will also see cooler temperatures with forecast highs only in the
lower 70s. Rain chances decrease throughout the day as the low
continues to move farther east.

Monday through Friday... We move into a more typical June pattern
next week with near normal temperatures, highs around 80, and a few
chances for rain mid to late week. The week will start dry as higher
pressure moves in behind this weekend's system. By midweek our next
system looks like it will move in. This system continues to look
less significant compared to the weekend system with lower QPF
across ensemble members. The overall timing and placement over the
Upper Midwest has reasonable agreement, but QPF amounts and exact
locations still vary.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

The main story today will be multiple rounds of rain showers or thunderstorms.
This does not mean continual MVFR or lower today, but periods of
MVFR or IFR as the showers/thunderstorms move through today. The
first round will mainly impact RWF and MKT and they could still see
TSRA with other terminals more likely to see rain from this initial
line this morning. More thunderstorm development this afternoon and
evening which will have locally high gusts and MVFR to IFR
conditions. Low MVFR to IFR expected tonight into Sunday morning with
continued -SHRA and BR.

KMSP... This initial line this morning should fall apart as it
approaches the terminal area. Could still see some rain, so opted
for a TEMPO. Biggest impacts today will be this afternoon and evening
as another round of TSRA is expected. This will likely have at least
MVFR with IFR likely at times as well. This timing can be further
refined in future TAFs. Lingering rain into tonight will keep the
terminal in MVFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...MVFR/-SHRA, chc -TSRA. Wind NW 10-20G25kts.
Mon...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 15G25kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts becoming NE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC

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