Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
242 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Much above normal temperatures continue through at least early
  next week with temperatures in the lower 90s. Highs could be near
  record highs through the weekend.

- Scattered thunderstorms continue in the afternoon through the
  evening into next week.

This evening through Saturday... Southerly flow continues today into
Saturday. With this we will be in continued warm air advection and
will be getting some moisture transport as well. This means more of a
hot and muggy setup today and tomorrow. With a lack of large scale
synoptic support and light wind shear there is little chance for
strong to severe storms. So the rain chances will be for general
airmass thunderstorms from this evening through Saturday. Main
impacts from this will be lightning and periods of heavy rain. The
storms will likely continue to be pulse convection with varying
strength, but could be slow moving with light steering flow. So what
we see today and have seen in past few days will continue to be the
expected weather Friday and Saturday

Sunday through Monday... The heat continue this weekend into Monday
with more days of temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Weaker
flow aloft might help reduce the moisture some which could help it be
a little less muggy outside. Monday could be the start of a cooling
trend, but this varies between ensemble members as some keep the heat
going into later parts of the week. With weaker moisture transport
there is a lower, but still present chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday... A small change in the pattern with
cooler, but still above normal temperatures. This would lead to less
instability and therefore lower, but still present chances for
diurnal convection in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Prevailing VFR continues for this TAF period. Stratocu fields were
beginning to develop across southern MN and Western WI which will
gradually make its way to all sites. Impacts to ceilings are not
anticipated except for any iso/sct SHRA and TSRA that develops this
afternoon. Confidence continues to remain low as to what sites could
see precipitation thus left off any mention of tempos or prob30s.
Southeasterly flow continues with routine diurnal speed changes
tonight through tomorrow.

KMSP...Starting at about 20-21z, the chances for widely scattered
shra/tsra will begin in the metro. This threat for a pop-up shower
than looks to linger with us through the rest of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Chc aftn/eve TSRA. Wind SE 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc aftn/eve TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...RMD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
225 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
021930-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
225 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening. Severe weather
is not anticipated at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

On and off, primarily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances
will continue into early next week. The risk for severe weather
is low but locally heavy rain is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
416 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

MNZ051-059>061-012145-
Anoka MN-Hennepin MN-Sherburne MN-Wright MN-
416 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Hennepin, east central Wright, west central Anoka and southeastern
Sherburne Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 415 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rogers, or 18 miles east of Buffalo, moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  St. Michael and Otsego around 425 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Elk River.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 209 and 217.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 159 and 162.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4519 9340 4515 9349 4530 9368 4538 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 147DEG 16KT 4522 9349

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

RMD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
423 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

MNZ061-012200-
Anoka MN-
423 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Anoka
County through 500 PM CDT...

At 422 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Andover, or 15 miles south of Cambridge, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  St. Francis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4525 9323 4523 9336 4541 9347 4541 9324
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 167DEG 19KT 4532 9332

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
435 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     Hail             Andover                 45.25N 93.30W
06/01/2023  M0.75 inch       Anoka              MN   Public

            Reported via Twitter.

&&

MKM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
442 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

MNZ050-051-012215-
Benton MN-Sherburne MN-
442 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Benton
and north central Sherburne Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 442 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Foley, or 11 miles east of St. Cloud, moving northwest
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  St. Cloud around 455 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Sauk Rapids and
Foley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4550 9377 4545 9393 4562 9415 4571 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 151DEG 15KT 4556 9393

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
507 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     Hail             5 WNW Isanti            45.52N 93.33W
06/01/2023  M0.75 inch       Isanti             MN   Public

            Reported via phone.

&&

MKM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
510 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

MNZ052-012245-
Isanti MN-
510 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Isanti
County through 545 PM CDT...

At 510 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Cambridge, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Isanti
County, including the following locations... Dalbo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4556 9329 4552 9341 4561 9352 4568 9351
      4572 9344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 143DEG 14KT 4559 9340

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

RMD