Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
245 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening, then fog
  overnight.

- Chances for showers and storms continue on and off through next
  week with a slow warming trend.

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to become more numerous
across eastern and southern MN this afternoon. This trend will
continue for the next several hours as a shortwave lifts northeast
through the area. Coverage will become widespread this evening, then
end from southwest to northeast with the passage of the shortwave
itself. A few storms across southern MN may pose a risk for
marginally severe hail and gusty winds where instability could build
to sufficient levels given some short-lived breaks in the cloud
cover. Later tonight, widespread fog is expected to develop given the
combination of clearing mid level clouds, light winds at the surface,
and deep low level moisture. Dense fog is possible across
eastern/central MN and WI where these combination of factors are
most favorable.

The fog should burn off quickly after mid morning and clouds will
rise and scatter for the afternoon. A surface confluence zone will
set up across eastern/southern MN and WI in the afternoon with a
weakly capped atmosphere in place as temperatures rise into the
mid/upper 70s. The light winds along the confluence zone will make
for weak forcing and any presence of capping should limit coverage to
'isolated'. If temperatures warm a bit more and the cap breaks, or
forcing is better with stronger winds/convergence then there may be a
little better coverage into the evening hours.

A messy summertime pattern will dominate into mid May with several weak
disturbances traversing much of the country. This limits confidence
for any particular period by a great degree, but a larger scale
synoptic system looks to impact the northern Plains late week and
will bring the best chance for rain. In the absence of precip,
temperatures will warm through next week and could return to the 80s
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

MVFR stratus shrouds the entire region with IFR stratus remaining
across central MN. Cigs aren't expected to improve a while lot this
afternoon while showers and thunderstorms begin developing to the
southwest in a few hours. The showers and storms will advance
northeast into mid evening, then fog will develop behind them
overnight into mid morning Sunday. LIFR or lower conditions are
possible across most of the area, except perhaps western MN.

KMSP...Best chance for TSRA will be between 23-02Z, with showers
within a slightly larger window by an hour or two. Widespread fog
should develop overnight. Visibilities could fall to less an a mile-
a relatively rare occurrence for radiational fog at MSP. Conditions
improve quickly between 14-15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts shifting to NE late.
Mon...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind N 5-10 kts.
Tue...MVFR likely. Chc -SHRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
222 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
071930-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
222 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms likely this afternoon and evening. A few
thunderstorms in southern Minnesota may be strong to severe. The
main hazards are large hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated thunderstorms can be expected Sunday through Monday. A
few thunderstorms in far southern Minnesota may be strong to
severe on Sunday. The main hazards are large hail and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a small chance SKYWARN spotter activation may be
necessary in southern Minnesota today and tomorrow.

pem

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
455 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

MNZ056-064-065-062230-
Chippewa MN-Yellow Medicine MN-Renville MN-
455 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Chippewa, northeastern Yellow Medicine and northwestern Renville
Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 455 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hanley Falls, or 14 miles south of Montevideo, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Granite Falls around 505 PM CDT.
  Sacred Heart and Maynard around 515 PM CDT.

This includes U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 43 and 61.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4464 9559 4474 9577 4500 9548 4483 9522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 230DEG 31KT 4475 9561

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
515 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

MNZ078-WIZ026-062245-
Goodhue MN-Pepin WI-
515 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Goodhue
and southwestern Pepin Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 514 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goodhue, or 13 miles south of Red Wing, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Frontenac, Pepin and Stockholm.

This includes U.S. Highway 61 between mile markers 82 and 86.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4444 9267 4456 9242 4456 9234 4454 9232
      4454 9217 4442 9211 4445 9224 4445 9243
      4437 9243 4436 9255 4425 9255 4423 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 247DEG 30KT 4437 9254

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RMD/JRB

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