Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
245 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening, then fog
  overnight.

- Chances for showers and storms continue on and off through next
  week with a slow warming trend.

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to become more numerous
across eastern and southern MN this afternoon. This trend will
continue for the next several hours as a shortwave lifts northeast
through the area. Coverage will become widespread this evening, then
end from southwest to northeast with the passage of the shortwave
itself. A few storms across southern MN may pose a risk for
marginally severe hail and gusty winds where instability could build
to sufficient levels given some short-lived breaks in the cloud
cover. Later tonight, widespread fog is expected to develop given the
combination of clearing mid level clouds, light winds at the surface,
and deep low level moisture. Dense fog is possible across
eastern/central MN and WI where these combination of factors are
most favorable.

The fog should burn off quickly after mid morning and clouds will
rise and scatter for the afternoon. A surface confluence zone will
set up across eastern/southern MN and WI in the afternoon with a
weakly capped atmosphere in place as temperatures rise into the
mid/upper 70s. The light winds along the confluence zone will make
for weak forcing and any presence of capping should limit coverage to
'isolated'. If temperatures warm a bit more and the cap breaks, or
forcing is better with stronger winds/convergence then there may be a
little better coverage into the evening hours.

A messy summertime pattern will dominate into mid May with several weak
disturbances traversing much of the country. This limits confidence
for any particular period by a great degree, but a larger scale
synoptic system looks to impact the northern Plains late week and
will bring the best chance for rain. In the absence of precip,
temperatures will warm through next week and could return to the 80s
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

MVFR stratus shrouds the entire region with IFR stratus remaining
across central MN. Cigs aren't expected to improve a while lot this
afternoon while showers and thunderstorms begin developing to the
southwest in a few hours. The showers and storms will advance
northeast into mid evening, then fog will develop behind them
overnight into mid morning Sunday. LIFR or lower conditions are
possible across most of the area, except perhaps western MN.

KMSP...Best chance for TSRA will be between 23-02Z, with showers
within a slightly larger window by an hour or two. Widespread fog
should develop overnight. Visibilities could fall to less an a mile-
a relatively rare occurrence for radiational fog at MSP. Conditions
improve quickly between 14-15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Winds SW 5-10 kts shifting to NE late.
Mon...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind N 5-10 kts.
Tue...MVFR likely. Chc -SHRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
222 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
071930-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
222 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms likely this afternoon and evening. A few
thunderstorms in southern Minnesota may be strong to severe. The
main hazards are large hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated thunderstorms can be expected Sunday through Monday. A
few thunderstorms in far southern Minnesota may be strong to
severe on Sunday. The main hazards are large hail and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a small chance SKYWARN spotter activation may be
necessary in southern Minnesota today and tomorrow.

pem

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
340 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

MNZ084-085-062115-
Steele MN-Waseca MN-
340 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Steele
and east central Waseca Counties through 415 PM CDT...

At 339 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waseca, or 12 miles west of Owatonna, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Owatonna.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 39 and 41.
 U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 158 and 173.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4400 9362 4420 9337 4420 9327 4404 9324
      4395 9353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 232DEG 37KT 4403 9346

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

RMD/JRB