Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Twin Cities, MN

399 
WWUS53 KMPX 110035
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
735 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

WIC017-033-110045-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-230711T0045Z/
Dunn WI-Chippewa WI-
735 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL DUNN AND WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES...

At 735 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Colfax, or 13
miles northeast of Menomonie, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Bloomer and Chippewa Falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4506 9113 4494 9139 4486 9161 4486 9165
      4485 9166 4484 9172 4503 9180 4508 9169
      4515 9154 4527 9108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 267DEG 33KT 4500 9166 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

877 
WWUS53 KMPX 110046
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
746 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

WIC017-033-110056-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-230711T0045Z/
Dunn WI-Chippewa WI-
746 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL DUNN AND WESTERN
CHIPPEWA COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However small
hail is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
west central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4506 9113 4494 9139 4486 9161 4486 9165
      4485 9166 4484 9172 4503 9180 4508 9169
      4515 9154 4527 9108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 260DEG 30KT 4501 9156 

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
604 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 537 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

CU development has been hard this afternoon. A few earlier updrafts
across central MN on the cold front in the vicinity of St Cloud
dissipated quickly and those currently in northwest WI are showing no
signs of vigorous development yet. Coverage has increased within the
last hour or two in western WI, so this will be an area to watch
over the next few hours as the cold front sags south. A watch is in
the process of being coordinated with SPC. The cold front has reached
a line from Cumberland, WI, to Hutchinson and Redwood Falls, MN.
Areas north of that line have ended their severe threat.

Another area to watch is along I-90 where CU has become better
established. There are also supercells in northwest IA that are left
movers that could build into far southern MN during the next few
hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon into evening, best
  chance from the Twin Cities to the east into Wisconsin.

- After a much above normal day today, a cool down Tuesday and
  Wednesday with near normal for the rest of the period.

- Several chances for rain over the next week with the best chance
  coming Tuesday night.

This evening into tonight... A cold front is slowly moving south
across Minnesota and Wisconsin through the rest of the day into
tonight. Along and ahead of this front we should see CI late this
afternoon into early evening. Instability has been building through
the day today such that we will have at least two (instability and
lift) of the four ingredients for thunderstorms. The other two
moisture and shear are less certain. It is not a particularly moist
profile, but it should still be enough moisture for storms to form
today. Shear is maximized to the north behind the front and less
ahead of the front. So it appears to be more of a high CAPE low shear
setup which would favor pulsing storms and large hail as the main
threat. Severe winds are also a concern, especially if we see upscale
growth into a linear system along the cold front. With weak low
level shear and high LCLs tornadoes are not likely today. Based on
current CAM guidance CI is expected near the Twin Cities and into
Wisconsin around 5pm give or take an hour. Storms would continue to
fire, mainly in Wisconsin into the evening. Some storms could also
occur farther south in Minnesota, but the environment is not as
favorable.

Tuesday... Behind the front cooler and drier air will settle in with
below normal temperatures and dry weather during the day on Tuesday.
Heading into Tuesday night another system is expected to move
through the Upper Midwest. The likely track will likely be to our
south, but parts of southern Minnesota have a decent chance for
seeing rain as this comes through. The closer to the Iowa border the
better the chances for rain. Based on the track the best chance for
up to around a quarter of an inch of rain will be along the I-90
corridor in far southern Minnesota. Not a lot of instability, so
strong to severe is not expected. There should still be enough to see
thunderstorms form, which could lead to some localized heavier
rainfall.

Wednesday through Monday... Looking at Wednesday into Friday the forecast
stays close to the previous with 30% PoPs across the CWA with an
eventual decreasing chance for precipitation Friday afternoon into
the rest of the weekend. This precipition is caused by a zonal flow
across the region that eventually deepens into a short wave across
the Dakotas. This then will affect the Northern Plains with this
precipitation. While the chance for precipitation decreases after
Friday afternoon, there is still a slight chance with a trough
sitting over the Northern Plains. This could bring a few scattered
showers over the weekend as it moves into the Upper Midwest. All
storms after Monday have a low chance of being severe.

Temperatures will continue to be below normal on Wednesday, but a
warming trend will be present through the end of the week. Friday
into Sunday, maximum temperatures are in the low 80s with low
temperatures in the low to mid 60s. These temperatures will be near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Storms have finally formed along a frontal boundary extending from
northern Wisconsin back through the Twin Cities. However, thinking
that thunderstorm activity will only impact KEAU at this point. Winds
will become northerly behind the front with VFR conditions through
the period.

KMSP...Confidence in thunderstorm development for KMSP has decreased,
so have removed the TEMPO group. Still, a stray storm may approach
the terminal, so went with VCTS. Once the front moves through, no
additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA early. Wind E 5-10kts.
THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind W 10-15kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind W 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC/EAB
AVIATION...Dye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
353 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

MNZ053-060>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
112100-
Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-
Carver-Scott-Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-
Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-
Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
353 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The
primary hazard will be large hail with a lesser chance for
damaging wind gusts.

There will be an increased risk for heat illness for those active
outdoors late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There are several low chances for thunderstorms Tuesday through
Sunday, but the risk for severe weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064-112100-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-
Meeker-Wright-Yellow Medicine-
353 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of centraland west
central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The
primary hazard will be large hail with a lesser chance for
damaging wind gusts.

There will be an increased risk for heat illness for those active
outdoors late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There are several low chances for thunderstorms Tuesday through
Sunday, but the risk for severe weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
657 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Hail             8 WSW Sheldon           45.29N 91.11W
07/10/2023  M1.75 inch       Chippewa           WI   Public

            Photo relayed via news station.

&&

PEM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
705 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     Hail             5 E Hudson              44.97N 92.66W
07/10/2023  M1.00 inch       St. Croix          WI   Trained Spotter

            Phone report.

&&

PEM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
707 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     Hail             5 E Hudson              44.97N 92.66W
07/10/2023  M1.50 inch       St. Croix          WI   Trained Spotter

            Phone report, two separate hail bursts with
            this one being the larger of the two.

&&

PEM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
710 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     Hail             5 ENE Hudson            45.00N 92.66W
07/10/2023  E1.00 inch       St. Croix          WI   Trained Spotter

            Phone report.

&&

PEM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
714 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     Hail             1 ESE Prior Lake        44.70N 93.41W
07/10/2023  M1.50 inch       Scott              MN   Trained Spotter

            Metro SKYWARN Phone report.

&&

PEM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
717 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     Hail             3 NE River Falls        44.89N 92.58W
07/10/2023  E1.00 inch       St. Croix          WI   Trained Spotter

            Phone report.

&&

PEM