Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Twin Cities, MN

650 
WWUS53 KMPX 112327
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

WIC109-112337-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-230811T2345Z/
St. Croix WI-
627 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ST. CROIX COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4465 9264 4475 9258 4481 9214 4454 9213
      4455 9239 4460 9253
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 300DEG 39KT 4457 9223 

$$

WIC093-112345-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-230811T2345Z/
Pierce WI-
627 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIERCE COUNTY...

At 627 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Plum City, or
15 miles east of Red Wing, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Pierce County, including the following locations...
Diamond Bluff, El Paso, Esdaile and Red Wing Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4465 9264 4475 9258 4481 9214 4454 9213
      4455 9239 4460 9253
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 300DEG 39KT 4457 9223 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

ETA

660 
WWUS53 KMPX 112342
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

WIC093-112352-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-230811T2345Z/
Pierce WI-
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIERCE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
the Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4465 9264 4475 9258 4481 9214 4454 9213
      4455 9239 4460 9253
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 300DEG 39KT 4449 9204 

$$

ETA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Thunderstorms expected across central Minnesota into western
  Wisconsin this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind and large hail
  will be the main risks.

- Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday are likely,
  strong storms unlikely.

Rest of Today... Ample forcing at multiple levels from a jet streak
to 500 mb shortwave provides plenty of forcing to get convection
going this afternoon. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s combined
with dew points in the 60s will provide ample surface based
instability for storms. Shear is rather unidirectional so not
expected a tornado threat. This will be more of a hail and wind
threat based upon the previously described environment. The main
uncertainty right now for the rest of the afternoon and evening is
not will storms form, but the exact location. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is in effect for much of the area along the current bubbling
cumulus clouds in western Minnesota and east into Wisconsin. It is
this area that will be favored for convective initiation and
continued storms. Looking towards the CAMs there is still a spread
throughout central and southern Minnesota for the initiation
location.

Saturday and Sunday... High pressure moves in behind Friday's storms
for a nice summer day. Biggest concern will be a chance for some fog
in the morning, especially for locations that get ample rainfall from
Friday's thunderstorms. By Sunday a pronounced wave will moved into
the Upper Midwest providing broad forcing for precipitation. While
precipitable water values are not anomalously high they are high
enough for widespread rain. There is widespread agreement in the
GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensemble system in this rain event. Thus the high
PoP, but what continues to vary are QPF amounts. For the Twin Cities,
as an example, the primary ensemble cluster extends from 0.2 up to
1.2 inches with multiple outliers well above that. The main severe
risk appears to be to the south with our location remaining within
the cool sector of this larger system. So expecting more of a rain
event with a chance for some thunderstorms in areas where some
localized instability supports it. Sunday into Sunday night is the
most likely time for this rain.

Monday through Friday... Some wrap around around rain could be seen
on Monday, but overall dry until midweek. The deterministic global
models show a frontal passage midweek and that would be out next
chance for rain and thunderstorms. Still more of a spread in the
ensembles, so PoPs remain low at this time. High pressure behind this
front would favor a dry end to the week. Temperatures are rather
uncertain for next week based on a wide spread in the ensembles. The
GEFS is generally running hot with the EPS running mild and the CMC
somewhere between them on average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon,
with damaging wind & large hail possible in the strongest storms.
Thunderstorms will likely initiate by 3-4 Pm across central MN,
mainly along a line through MKT-STC, & move eastwards into the
evening.Thunderstorm coverage will be spotty, so not all terminals
will see impacts, but the chances are highest at MSP/RNH/EAU.

Winds will become northwesterly this afternoon with gusts around 20
kts, then become light & more westerly overnight. Gusts around 20 mph return
by late Saturday morning. Patchy fog/mist is possible overnight, but
will become more likely if any terminals do see appreciable rainfall
from today's thunderstorms.

KMSP...Still think the main window for thunderstorms will be between
5-8 PM this evening. Thunderstorms will be isolated so any impacts
will not be long-lived, probably less than an hour. Gusty winds in
excess of 50 mph & large hail are possible with the strongest
thunderstorms.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...MVFR/-SHRA likely. -TSRA possible. Wind SE 10G20 kts.
Mon...AM MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind NW 20G30kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind W 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
122015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms likely with hail and wind are the primary threats.
See watch and warning statements for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is another chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday
evening, severe weather is not likely, but still possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
549 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     Hail             2 SSW Minneapolis       44.95N 93.28W
08/11/2023  M1.50 inch       Hennepin           MN   Public

            Picture via twitter.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
551 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Hail             2 SSW Minneapolis       44.95N 93.28W
08/11/2023  M2.50 inch       Hennepin           MN   Public

            Picture next to baseball, slightly smaller,
            via twitter.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
553 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ESE St. Paul          44.93N 93.05W
08/11/2023  M68 MPH          Ramsey             MN   ASOS

            ASOS station KSTP St. Paul Dwtn AP.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
554 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     Hail             3 N Odin                43.91N 94.74W
08/11/2023  M1.00 inch       Watonwan           MN   911 Call Center

            Power also reported out in Odin.

&&

mpg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
554 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNZ076-077-084-085-112330-
Steele MN-Le Sueur MN-Waseca MN-Rice MN-
554 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Le
Sueur, Steele, northeastern Waseca and southwestern Rice Counties
through 630 PM CDT...

At 554 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waterville, or 13 miles southwest of Faribault, moving east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Warsaw around 600 PM CDT.
  Faribault around 605 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Owatonna and
Medford.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 36 and 53.
 U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 164 and 182.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Minnesota. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4411 9361 4429 9386 4433 9355 4419 9307
      4420 9305 4392 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 284DEG 40KT 4420 9352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
556 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Hail             3 E Richfield           44.88N 93.22W
08/11/2023  M1.25 inch       Hennepin           MN   NWS Employee

            Up to half dollar hail reported by off duty
            NWS employee at MSP airport.

&&

TDH