Frost Advisory 4, NWS Twin Cities, MN

988 
WWUS73 KMPX 102230
NPWMPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
530 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

MNZ078-085-093-WIZ026-111030-
/O.CON.KMPX.FR.Y.0004.231011T0600Z-231011T1400Z/
Goodhue-Steele-Freeborn-Pepin-
Including the cities of Red Wing, Owatonna, Albert Lea, 
and Durand
530 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 32 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...In Minnesota, Goodhue, Steele and Freeborn Counties. 
  In Wisconsin, Pepin County.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

320 
WWUS73 KMPX 110835
NPWMPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
335 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023

MNZ078-085-093-WIZ026-111400-
/O.CON.KMPX.FR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-231011T1400Z/
Goodhue-Steele-Freeborn-Pepin-
Including the cities of Red Wing, Owatonna, Albert Lea, 
and Durand
335 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 31 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...In Minnesota, Goodhue, Steele and Freeborn Counties. 
  In Wisconsin, Pepin County.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1247 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Below normal temperatures this week will trend towards near normal
  by the start of next week with frost/freeze likely this morning and
  tonight.

- A large system will bring widespread rain and gusty winds to the
  Upper Midwest Thursday and Friday.

Today and Wednesday... Clear skies this morning have allowed for
temperatures across Minnesota to drop into the 30s this morning. Some
cloud cover has helped keep Wisconsin warmer where 30s are only
common close to the Minnesota border. This current cold northerly
flow pattern will remain with us through Wednesday such that we will
have a similarly cold night again tonight.

Thursday through Monday... The main story for the week though will be
our large fall system arriving late week. A slow moving low tracking
across the Midwest will draw upon ample upper support both with
a favorable jet position aloft and a trough. So there will be ample
synoptic lift as this system moves through. This low is also likely
to pull in lots of Gulf moisture with the NAEFS bringing the 90th
percentile precipitable water values farther north into Minnesota and
Wisconsin with the latest run. Speaking of changes in model guidance,
what has happened in the last 24 hours? In general there is now more
of a consensus in ensemble systems of a surface low track over Iowa.
This track would put us in the center of the region for high rain
totals in the low's northern quadrants. This would also keep us cool
with most of the warm air remaining in the low's southern quadrants
well to our south. The air however is not expected to be cold enough
for any wintry precipitation and it should all fall as rain. If this
happens the way models have been trending towards, we could see
region wide 1 inch plus and maybe even 2 inch plus rain totals. Some
locations could even see 3 or more inches. How could we get this much
widespread rain? It is both large and slow moving we are expecting
higher rain totals across a large area. There is not much
expectation for flooding as the convective chances remain better to
our south and rain rates should stay low enough for our still drought
stricken ground to take in moisture well. Flooding that does occur
would be more likely to occur because of fallen leaves clogging
drains. The main period for rain would be on Thursday and Friday, but
some lighter wrap around rain could continue into Saturday. Sunday
into Monday high pressure should move in from Canada and give us a
chance to dry out after a wet few days.

For temperatures this period will see few significant changes in
high temperatures, but will be warmer on low temperatures. Cloud
cover from the late week system will prevent much of the overnight
radiative cooling. Friday could be cooler overall, thanks
evaporative cooling from the rainfall. This will keep us below
normal, but closer to normal late week. Falling normals this time of
year though will have us at normal temperatures again by the start
of next week even though forecast temperatures do not change much.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

VFR conditions are expected the entire period. For RNH and EAU, a
cloud deck between 7000-10000 feet will pivot over the Great Lakes
before it exits on Wednesday. Northwesterly winds will be near 10
knots this afternoon before becoming calm/variable tonight. Winds
will then become easterly Wednesday morning towards the end of the
period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind E 15-20G30 kts.
Fri...MVFR/RA likely, chc IFR/TSRA. Wind NE 15-20G30 kts.
Sat...Chc MVFR/-RA in AM. Wind N 15-20G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...BPH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1001 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
111515-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1001 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Temperatures dropping to or slightly below the freezing mark
again tonight into tomorrow morning, particularly away from the
Twin Cities metro area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Blustery winds and widespread, accumulating rainfall possible
Thursday through Friday. The strongest winds look to particularly
occur Thursday night into Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.