Frost Advisory 3, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Anoka County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Chippewa County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1234 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

Updated to include 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Below normal temperature continue for the next week with the
  coldest period on Monday night/Tuesday morning where a freeze is
  most likely.

- Next chance for rain, with widespread rain possible, is Thursday
  into Friday.

Today through Wednesday... The main concern through Wednesday will be
the cold and frost. Continued northerly flow will keep the colder air
over us through Wednesday. The deciding factor in how cold it will
get will be cloud cover as it has been variable the past few nights
and the pattern has not changed much. Generally though expecting
less of a chance for clouds this morning into Monday night, so
temperatures could cool more than the past cloudier nights. Therefore
the coldest night on the week ahead is expected to be on Monday
night. Clearer skies, high humidity, and light winds will be
favorable for frost formation as well as falling below freezing. This
could be enough of a freeze to bring our frost/freeze season to an
end. Based on ensemble guidance the probability for below freezing
temperatures remains highest to the west and south of the Twin
Cities and the lowest in the core Twin Cities metro.

Thursday through Sunday... Late week the weather in the Upper Midwest
will be driven by a large system moving through. Strong forcing both
with a trough at 500 mb and a jet at 250 mb will provide ample
support for this system. As is common with large systems this time of
year, there will also be ample moisture transport. The cooler
temperatures will likely continue as just about all the guidance in
the GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensembles keep the surface low to our south
keeping us in the cold sector of the low. Where the guidance is more
dispersive, is how far south of us this low tracks. The GFS and much
of the GEFS keep this low far enough south that the only area with a
good chance for rain would be southern Minnesota. The ECMWF and much
of the EPS keep the low much farther north and provides for a
forecast of a widespread soaking rain. This is why the likely PoPs
remain only across the south. If the trend moves towards the ECMWF
than higher PoPs will spread to the north. Some lingering wrap around
precipitation could continue into Saturday, but the forecast overall
will trend back towards dry again this weekend as high pressure
moves in behind the system. Temperatures look fairly consistent this
period, but as normals fall these temperatures will not be as much
below normal. By mid October our recent much below normal
temperatures will just be normal temperatures. October is after all
one of the months with the steepest drop in normal temperatures. So
outlooks for above normal this time of year don't necessarily mean
warm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration. A swath of
lower-range VFR ceilings have developed in western and far southern
MN but these are not expected to drop below 4k ft but will persist
through the afternoon hours. Clearing is expected from early this
evening onward, producing only passing high clouds this evening
through the overnight hours. Ceilings are then likely to develop over
western WI overnight through the day Tuesday but remain around 10k
ft. Winds will remain NW throughout, with speeds 10G20kt today
dropping to 5-10kt tonight through Tuesday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts increasing to 10-15 kts.
Thu...Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind E 15-20G30 kts.
Fri...MVFR/RA likely, chc IFR/TSRA. Wind NE 15-20G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...JPC
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
928 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
100900-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
928 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Frost will be likely during the early morning hours Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures dropping to or slightly below the freezing
mark are possible both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings,
particularly away from the Twin Cities metro area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.