Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
256 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
  small hail and heavy rain are the main impacts.

- Cooler and dry Sunday, followed by a return to above normal warmth
  and continued dry conditions next week.

This evening and tonight... As the cold front moves through this
evening thunderstorms will continue. The main impacts will continue
to be heavy rain and small hail. The lack of any significant shear
will be prohibitive for strong to severe storms. This will likely
lead to more pulse convection and without sustained updrafts it will
be hard to see large hail. With precipitable water values of up to
1.5 inches these storms could produce heavy rain. For this to have a
flooding impact though, they will need to be largely stationary and
storm motions so far this afternoon have not supported that for the
storms with heavy rain. Based on the the CAMs and the last run of the
HREF all convection should come to an end by late this evening into
early tonight. Storms that have formed this evening will move in a
generally southerly direction with much lower chances for storms
behind them. Cooler tonight behind the cold front with overnight lows
in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Sunday through Wednesday... High pressure settles in behind the
frontal passage providing for cooler and dry conditions on Sunday.
Highs will be much cooler in the upper 60s to mid 70s. So cool and
sunny will be the main story for Sunday. High pressure continues into
early next week, but a warming trend returns with temperatures
peaking on Tuesday with highs in the 80s. Without an increase in
moisture this will lead to much lower RH values falling into the 20s.
This will provide for a period of elevated fire weather, if we can
also get some higher winds it could become near critical.

Thursday through Saturday... Temperatures will moderate later next
week behind a midweek cold frontal passage. Once the upper low that
is stuck over Michigan for the early to mid part of the week moves
out the upper flow will shift. This will allow for small feature to
move through aloft that could provide for the synoptic lift and
therefore rain late next week. Not yet a strong signal, but all the
deterministic models show some source of lift. Among the wider
ensemble data there remains a wider variety of QPF values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Main impact today will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon. Kept everything in TEMPO today due to the isolated to
scattered nature of the storms. Like we have seen over the past few
weeks some will get storms while others will remain VCTS. Should be
VFR throughout with MVFR to IFR in thunderstorms. Behind the front we
should see some gustier winds up to around 20 knots.

KMSP... Still looking at afternoon timing for the chance of
thunderstorms. Thunderstorm threat would mainly be for heavy rain and
reduced visibility.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts becoming NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
312 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
112015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
312 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening. Severe
weather is not expected, but a few stronger storms could produce
locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Low relative humidity levels may produce elevated fire weather
conditions Sunday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

BPH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>