Storm Watch 1, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1147 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

A broken MVFR cloud deck, with ceilings generally around
2000-2500ft, is currently in place across the region at issuance
time. Throughout the afternoon, this cloud deck should begin to
scatter out, with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder
of the period. Northerly to northeasterly winds at around 10 kts
will turn more easterly overnight tonight to eventually
southeasterly by late Tuesday morning. Wind speeds will quickly
increase throughout the day on Tuesday. /96

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 440 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

The next 48 hours or so will be the proverbial calm before the
storm as we fall in between systems. Primarily zonal flow will
develop in the wake of the last system with the surface cold front
pushing well offshore. Surface winds will remain northerly today
keeping drier and cooler air across the area. Monday night into
Tuesday will be when we attempt to reload in advance of a rather
deep upper trough and potent embedded shortwave trough. The main
change Monday night into Tuesday will likely be the wind. As the
main upper trough progresses across central Texas on Tuesday, the
embedded shortwave will round the base and interact with a rather
strong subtropical jet ejecting across southern Texas. As a result
the upper shortwave will take on a negative tilt and begin a
period of rather intense deepening across east Texas. This will
allow for strengthening southwesterly flow aloft to overspread
our area by Tuesday allowing for moisture to begin to rapidly
surge northward. At the surface, a rather strong surface low will
develop across east Texas leading to a strengthening gradient
southeasterly surface wind. Expect clouds to increase during the
afternoon Tuesday as moisture steadily increases and the stage
becomes set for our next impactful weather system. A couple warm
advection showers will be possible late Tuesday afternoon mainly
across southeastern Mississippi.

High temperatures will be cool this afternoon with highs in the
mid to upper 50s. Highs on Tuesday will be tricky as the daytime
high will likely remain in the 50s to maybe 60 along the coast;
however, the actual high will probably occur overnight closer to
midnight Tuesday night but more on that later. Lows tomorrow night
will continue the trend of cool as they will likely dip into the
mid to upper 30s. A HIGH risk of rip currents is expected to
continue through Wednesday. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      38  69  51  60  37  56  32  56 /   0  20  90  10   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   42  69  55  64  40  55  36  55 /   0  10  90  30   0   0   0   0
Destin      46  71  58  68  43  55  40  54 /   0   0  90  50   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   32  62  46  62  35  54  29  54 /   0  10  90  30   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  33  64  45  55  34  52  29  54 /   0  30  90  10   0   0   0   0
Camden      32  60  45  60  36  52  29  53 /   0  10  90  20   0   0   0   0
Crestview   34  67  50  67  36  56  30  56 /   0   0  90  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for
     GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

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