Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1251 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. A
few showers and storms may be possible over interior portions of
the region during the afternoon hours which could bring brief
reductions in visibility and ceilings. Dry conditions are
otherwise expected for the evening and overnight hours.
Southwesterly winds, possibly gusting up to 15-20 knots at times,
will diminish by the evening hours. /96

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

A strong upper level shortwave trough moving southeast from over
the Plains to the Southeast today shifts an upper level ridge over
the Gulf of Mexico southwest a bit as another upper level
shortwave over the Southeast moves off. Post system northerly low
level flow behind the first shortwave system moves south over the
Southeast, with the most southerly push being east of the forecast
area, leaving a band of higher moisture along with a residual
surface boundary over the forecast area this morning (precipitable
h20 values of 2.0"-2.2"). A surface ridge stretching west over
the Gulf becomes better organized as the upper ridge shifts
southwest, bringing a more organized southwesterly flow to the
Southeast along with a band of drier air moving northeast across
the forecast area beginning late this afternoon through tonight.

Ahead of the drier air, isolated rain showers have formed mainly
over coastal portions of the forecast area in the hours before
sunrise this morning. Am expecting these showers to decrease as
the boundary layer increases with rising temperatures this
morning. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
possible, mainly over the northeastern half of the forecast area
as the drier air begins to move in from the southwest. With this
drier air centered southwest to northeast over land portions of
the forecast area Thursday, any rain chances are expected to be
either south or north, with guidance indicating mainly over and
south of the coast for our forecast area.

Temperature see little change Thursday from today, with the shift
in the upper ridge over the Gulf small along with better heating
Thursday due to the drier airmass moving over the forecast area
Thursday. High temperatures are expected to range from the mid 90s
to around 100 each day. Heat Indices are expected to top out in
the 106 to 113 range each day, with only a small drop in surface
dewpoints due to good boundary layer moisture remaining over the
forecast area. Tonight, temperatures are expected to range from
the low 70s over northeastern portions of the forecast area to
around 80 along the coast.

A low risk of rip currents today will become more moderate
Thursday as a more organized southwesterly flow combines with an
increasing tidal cycle. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  96  80  98  79  98  78  98 /   0  20  10  30  10  40  10  40
Pensacola   81  96  82  97  81  98  79  97 /   0  30  10  40  20  40  20  40
Destin      83  93  84  94  82  95  81  95 /  10  30  10  40  20  40  20  40
Evergreen   75  99  77  99  75 100  74  99 /   0  10  10  40  30  40  20  40
Waynesboro  76  98  77  98  75  99  76  98 /   0  10  10  30  10  30  10  40
Camden      75  95  76  95  74  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  30  20  40  20  40
Crestview   75  98  77  99  75 100  75  99 /   0  20   0  40  30  40  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
316 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

ALZ058-092100-
Crenshaw AL-
316 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CRENSHAW COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM CDT...

At 316 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Rutledge, or 9 miles west of Luverne, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Luverne, Rutledge, and Petrey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3165 8635 3171 8645 3177 8644 3178 8645
      3181 8645 3197 8623 3196 8619 3193 8618
      3189 8617 3186 8618 3183 8618 3181 8620
      3179 8620 3179 8615 3171 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 237DEG 17KT 3169 8642

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM