Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1254 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA will develop across interior
southeast MS and southwest and south central AL early this
afternoon before moving southeastward across much of the rest of
the area (especially south central AL and the western FL
panhandle) through mid to late afternoon. Expect strong winds and
localized MVFR or lower conditions in and near the strongest
convection that develops. Storms should move to the east of the
area by around 00Z this evening. VFR conditions are otherwise
expected to remain prevalent outside of storms. /21

&&

. MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

A mid level shortwave trough has moved east of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and into central portions of MS this morning,
while an associated frontal boundary was located roughly along or
just north of the I-20 corridor in MS and eastward across portions
of central AL and GA. A mesoscale convective system (MCS) has made
its way across much of central and northern MS this morning, with
the leading edge crossing into portions of western AL (northwest
of the I-20 corridor) as of 1045 AM CDT.

The shortwave trough axis will continue to progress E-SE into
central and interior southwest and south central AL through this
afternoon before exiting to our east early this evening. The
surface cold front is expected to sink southward and become
oriented across southern portions of southeast MS, far southwest
AL, and into the vicinity of the western FL panhandle by late this
afternoon. The atmosphere out of ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough and surface front will remain quite unstable this
afternoon with MLCAPE values ranging between 3000-4000 J/KG over
much of our forecast area. 0-6 km shear will also increase to
35-45 kt over most interior portions of our area (along and north
of the I-10 corridor) along the advancing shortwave trough this
afternoon. This environment will be favorable for additional
convective development along the boundary, and we still expect
numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop over interior
southeast MS and southwest/south central AL between noon-2 PM and
advance E-SE across much of our region through the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Deep layer shear and instability
will be favorable for an increased damaging wind threat with
convection along the advancing shortwave/surface boundary this
afternoon, and a Slight Risk of severe weather continues for much
of our CWA north of the I-10 corridor this afternoon. While
damaging winds will be the main concern, shear/instability
profiles could support quarter size hail in a couple of the
strongest storm cells. The severe threat looks to end by around
6-7 PM CDT.

A Heat Advisory will remain in effect for much of our area along
and south of the boundary today. Heat indices between 105-110
degrees are already being observed as of late this morning.
Increasing cloud and convective coverage may squash the higher
heat index values over a good portion of our area by later this
afternoon.

Lifeguards at Orange Beach and Destin have observed increased rip
current development this morning, likely due to the increased
southwesterly near shore flow. We have upgraded the rip current
risk to MODERATE today through Wednesday, with the MODERATE risk
persisting through the end of the week. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-053-055>060-
     261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ052-053-
     055>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1242 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

ALZ054-057-081830-
Wilcox AL-Butler AL-
1242 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BUTLER AND
SOUTHEASTERN WILCOX COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 1242 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Camden, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Butler
and southeastern Wilcox Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3206 8718 3205 8718 3205 8686 3196 8686
      3196 8670 3194 8669 3185 8722 3205 8725
      3207 8719
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 251DEG 22KT 3198 8713

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
128 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

ALZ054>058-060-081915-
Wilcox AL-Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Butler AL-Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
128 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BUTLER...NORTHEASTERN MONROE...
CENTRAL CRENSHAW...SOUTHEASTERN WILCOX...NORTHEASTERN CONECUH AND
NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 127 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fort Deposit to 12 miles north of
Evergreen. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Rutledge, Pine Apple, and Highland
Home.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3140 8643 3159 8718 3205 8692 3205 8686
      3196 8686 3196 8641 3204 8640 3205 8640
      3205 8630 3197 8630 3196 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 279DEG 23KT 3202 8661 3162 8696

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
215 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

ALZ057-058-082015-
Butler AL-Crenshaw AL-
215 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BUTLER AND CRENSHAW
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 213 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles northwest of Ansley
to 3 miles southwest of Georgiana. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Luverne, Georgiana, Brantley, Rutledge, Glenwood, and
Petrey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8620 3147 8619 3149 8628 3153 8628
      3153 8630 3150 8633 3151 8640 3153 8640
      3152 8651 3158 8688 3192 8663 3190 8618
      3183 8618 3179 8620 3179 8615 3166 8615
      3166 8616 3162 8618 3162 8615 3154 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 281DEG 19KT 3194 8616 3162 8679

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RD

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