Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
348 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Hot weather prevails today into Monday across the forecast area.
High temperatures in the middle to upper 90's continue to be
expected for this afternoon, with upper 90's to near 100 expected
Monday afternoon. Dewpoints remain relatively high today in the
lower to middle 70's meaning heat index values will likely top out
around the 105 to 110 degree range across most of the forecast area.
Heading into Monday things get a bit tricky as some low to mid level
dry air works its way in from the north across portions of south-
central Alabama. Most guidance bottoms dewpoints out in the middle
to upper 60's for interior portions of the area, with the most
aggressive guidance suggesting these lower dewpoints even make it
down into coastal counties of AL and the FL panhandle. A heat
advisory will be in effect for much of the area for Monday. Given
expected heat indices only in the 98 to 103 range across interior
counties of south-central AL the plan is to not issue a heat
advisory for those areas. For the areas that will be under the
advisory, expect heat index values to top out in the 103 to 110
range. The immediate coast could see a brief spike up to near 112 as
the sea breeze boundary moves inland. There is the potential for
afternoon dewpoints to further mix out than expected resulting in
lower heat indices over the forecast area, although confidence
decreases with southwestward extent across the forecast area.

Aside from the hot temperatures, thunderstorms will make their
presence known this afternoon into early evening. Ample SB/MLCAPE
values upwards of 4,000 and 3,000j/kg respectively have materialized
across a good chunk of the forecast area. DCAPE values also exceed
1,000 to 1,300j/kg. Deep layer shear remains weak in the 15 to 20kt
range. Given this, there's just enough shear for some loosely
organized convection in the form of multicell clusters that should
propagate forward on their outflow boundaries. This is presently
being seen across central into southwestern AL where several line
segments and multi-cell clusters are propagating southward this
afternoon. Another area to monitor will be the sea breeze which will
likely spark off a few showers and storms as it works its way inland
this afternoon into evening. An upper level shortwave moving in from
the northwest this afternoon into early evening is helping to
bolster thunderstorm activity. Given the favorable thermodynamic
environment can't rule out a couple strong to severe thunderstorms
capable of producing damaging wind gusts to 60mph and large hail up
to quarter size. A low risk of rip currents remains in place through
the period. MM/25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

A northwesterly upper flow pattern will continue through midweek
as a strong upper level ridge continues across the ArkLaTex region
and an upper trough continues across the east coast. Shortwaves
rotating around the ridge will continue to bring diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms, however strong subsidence from the
upper ridge will continue to limit coverage especially across
western portions of the area. Late in the week, the upper ridge
will weaken and shift westward, this will allow convective
coverage to increase especially during the afternoon and early
evening hours. In addition, we will have to watch for the
development of convective complexes to the northwest that may move
into the region.

Highs each day will remain very hot through the period due to the
close proximity to the upper ridge. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday
will likely top out in the upper 90s, with some interior regions
reaching as high as around 100 degrees. As the ridge starts to
weaken and retreat back to the west, highs will lower slightly to
the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week. Some drier low to mid
level air mixing down will likely keep heat index values below
criteria Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional heat advisories will be
possible late in the week. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

A light diurnal flow will persist over the marine area through
the forecast period. A few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through the upcoming week as well, mainly during the late
night and early morning hours offshore and possibly in the late
afternoon hours as well over the bays and inland waterways. No
impacts expected over the marine area other than locally higher
winds and seas possible near isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. /12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  98  77  99  77  98  77  96 /  50  30   0  20  10  30  10  40
Pensacola   79  98  80  96  80  95  79  95 /  50  30  10  20  10  40  20  40
Destin      80  96  80  92  81  91  79  92 /  50  30  10  20  10  30  20  40
Evergreen   74  98  73  97  72  97  73  96 /  20  20   0  10   0  20  10  30
Waynesboro  75  98  73  97  73  97  74  97 /  20  20   0  10   0  20  10  30
Camden      74  95  72  95  72  95  73  94 /  20  10   0  10   0  20  10  30
Crestview   75  99  74  99  74  97  75  97 /  50  30   0  20   0  40  10  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ051>053-055-
     056-059-060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

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