Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected across the
area this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Any heavier
activity could reduce ceilings and visibilities to MVFR or lower.
Outside of storms, VFR conditions prevail with light winds
generally following the diurnal pattern. /14

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

An overall light and variable upper-level flow pattern continues
through Saturday as our local area remains sandwiched between an
upper ridge over the Four Corners region and another ridge over
the western Atlantic. Current analysis also shows a mid to upper-
level inverted trough located over the Florida Peninsula.
Throughout the period, this trough will drift northward towards
Southern Georgia before lifting northeastward across the
Carolinas. This will help to increase deep layer moisture further
across our area (PWATs ranging from around 1.8-2.0 inches west to
around 2.0-2.2 inches east) as well as decrease the subsident
effects from the upper ridges. Therefore, rain chances for both
today and Saturday are higher across the region in comparison to
previous days. Highest coverage (40-50 percent) will be for
regions east of I-65, especially along the sea breeze boundary.
Low shear values (less than 15 knots) will favor pulse storms both
days, and with DCAPEs generally around 800-1100 J/kg, a few
storms could produce gusty downburst winds. Highs today will reach
the low to mid 90s, increasing to the mid to upper 90s for
Saturday. Although dew points are also continuing to slowly
increase, heat indices should remain below Heat Advisory criteria
for the period (around 100 degrees for today and around 102-107
degrees for Saturday). A LOW Risk of rip currents continues
through the period. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  95  77  96  77 100  76 100 /  20  30  10  30  10  30  10  30
Pensacola   78  93  79  94  80  98  78  97 /  10  40  10  40  10  30  10  30
Destin      79  91  80  94  81  95  80  94 /  10  40  20  40  10  30  20  30
Evergreen   74  96  73  96  74  99  73  97 /  20  30  10  30  10  20  10  20
Waynesboro  73  96  75  99  75  99  74  99 /  20  20  10  20  10  20  10  20
Camden      74  96  75  96  74  98  73  96 /  20  30  10  20  10  20   0  10
Crestview   73  95  74  95  75  97  73  97 /  20  40  10  40  10  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
218 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

FLZ205-206-282000-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
218 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 217 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Niceville, moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Niceville and Valparaiso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3047 8651 3052 8662 3066 8649 3063 8639
      3044 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 121DEG 5KT 3054 8647

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

cb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
239 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

ALZ051-282030-
Choctaw AL-
239 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Pennington, or 11 miles northeast of Butler,
moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3230 8794 3230 8798
      3228 8802 3218 8801 3215 8802 3214 8804
      3209 8804 3206 8807 3207 8810 3205 8812
      3202 8812 3199 8810 3201 8809 3198 8806
      3198 8808 3199 8819 3231 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 105DEG 10KT 3222 8809

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

cb