Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
638 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. However,
expect occasional reductions in visibilities due to heavy rain
along with gusty northwest winds to 40 knots within thunderstorms
early this evening across the western Florida Panhandle before
storms dissipate. Thunderstorms will redevelop mid Monday
afternoon along the coastal sections. For now have included a
PROB30 group to all coastal TAFs starting around 17/20z. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Broad upper troughing remains in place over much of the eastern
US through Monday while a large upper ridge dominates over the
western US. A weak shortwave and associated MCS will dive
southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon
and into the evening hours. The bulk of this activity should stay
to our west, but can't rule out a few lingering showers and storms
(mainly over southeast Mississippi and far southwestern Alabama)
into the late evening hours as the shortwave approaches from the
northwest. The main focus for today will be thunderstorm
development along southern portions of the area as we head into
the late afternoon and early evening hours. The focus will mainly
be along the sea-breeze and a weak surface trough draped across
the area. A decent cumulus field has developed across the region.
Current SPC mesoanalysis indicates ample instability along the
coast with DCAPE values of 1000-1400 J/Kg. As a result of this
environment, could see a few strong storms with gusty winds and
frequent lightning. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible
this afternoon especially over southeast Mississippi and far
southwestern Alabama. Temperatures this afternoon have soared into
the lower to middle 90s with heat index values ranging from 105
to 110 degrees. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect for
southeast Mississippi, far southwestern Alabama, and the
northwestern Florida Panhandle until 7pm this evening. Lows
tonight dip into the lower 70s inland and the middle and upper 70s
closer to the coast.

The aforementioned weak shortwave will round the base of the
larger upper trough and move over the local area Monday morning.
Northwesterly flow it's wake will usher dry air into the area.
Although, there will still be enough moisture for some isolated to
scattered showers and storms mainly over southern portions of the
area. Some of these storms could produce gusty winds given the
presence of mid level dry air. Temperatures will continue to be
hot as we roll into the start of the work week. Highs on Monday
are expected to top out in the lower to middle 90s, but the lower
moisture content is expected to keep heat index values just below
heat advisory criteria at this time. /14

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

A large upper trof over the eastern states lifts mostly off to the
northeast allowing for a strong upper ridge over the southwest and
south central states to build into the region. A very weak
convergence zone will be present over the southern/central portion
of the forecast area on Tuesday, but otherwise a surface ridge
over the northern Gulf promotes a light southerly flow. Some
isolated lingering convection is possible Monday evening, with dry
conditions otherwise for the rest of the night. Subsidence
effects associated with the ridge will increase through the
remainder of the period, and have gone with small pops over the
southern/central portion of the area for Tuesday afternoon but dry
conditions otherwise prevail through Wednesday night. Lows Monday
night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the
coast, then lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night will be a bit
warmer with mid 70s for much of the area except for mid/upper 70s
at the coast. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly in the
mid to upper 90s. A Heat Advisory may become necessary on Tuesday
and Wednesday mainly for portions of southeast Mississippi,
extreme southwestern Alabama and possibly the far western Florida
panhandle. A low risk of rip currents is expected through the
period. /29

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

An upper ridge over the region (extending back to across the
southwest states) retreats gradually well back to the west through
Saturday as a large and broad upper trof develops over the
eastern half of the CONUS. A surface low evolves well off to the
north in response to the developing upper trof, and is anticipated
to bring a trailing cold front into the interior southeast states
on Thursday. The frontal boundary moves into the forecast area on
Friday and appears to stall and gradually weaken while lingering
through Sunday. As subsidence effects abate with the retreating
upper ridge, have gone with slight chance pops for much of the
area on Thursday then chance pops follow for Friday areawide. Have
gone with likely pops for both Saturday and Sunday as the weak
frontal boundary and a favorable convective environment will be in
place. May need to monitor for a pesky MCS potentially affecting
the eastern portion of the area Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. Additional Heat Advisories will likely become necessary
for at least the southern portion of the area on Thursday through
Saturday, and possible most if not all of the area on Friday. Heat
index values finally look to remain advisory criteria of 108 on
Sunday as daytime highs will be limited to around 90 by
convection. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. Outside of storms, winds remain light
to occasionally moderate through the period. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  93  74  96  76  95  75  95 /  40  30  10  20   0  10   0  20
Pensacola   77  91  77  94  78  93  77  93 /  40  30  10  20   0  10   0  20
Destin      79  89  79  92  80  93  79  92 /  30  30  10  20   0  10   0  10
Evergreen   74  94  72  97  74  98  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0  10   0  20
Waynesboro  73  94  73  97  75  98  74  97 /  20  20  10  20   0  10   0  10
Camden      73  93  72  96  74  97  74  96 /   0  10   0  10   0  10   0  10
Crestview   73  94  72  97  73  97  73  97 /  20  30  20  20   0  10   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

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