Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
340 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

The central Gulf Coast remains between a broad, weak trough aloft
and a ridge over the northern Gulf. Multiple weak upper
shortwaves will continue to move through the zonal flow aloft
through the period. The combination of precipitable water values
around 2 inches along with an unstable atmosphere will continue to
lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and again on Thursday. Weak flow
aloft along with little in the way of surface forcing or upper
dynamics will keep the storms from becoming organized. An isolated
strong storm cannot be ruled out with gusty winds, however the
main threats will remain frequent lighting and locally heavy rain.
Shower and thunderstorms activity will diminish in coverage
around sunset, given the loss of diurnal heating and lack of
organization associated with the storms.

Temperatures through the period will be heavily dependent on the
coverage and timing of thunderstorms. Expect temps to be near to
slightly above normal with overnight lows in the mid 70s and daytime
highs in the lower 90s. Given the humidity, heat index values will
still top out in the triple digits, but not quite to heat advisory
criteria. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

Thursday's showers and thunderstorms carrying over into the evening
becomes scattered in coverage. PoPs lower to less than 20% late
Thursday night over the interior while a general increase in
coverage is focused southward over the coastal waters. An unsettled
weather pattern looks to persist as we move into the weekend. A
weakness in the height field aloft appears to remain fixed over the
central Gulf coast with the local area at the base of a low-
amplitude trough at high levels. Meanwhile, a deep layer ridge is
positioned to our west over Texas. Moving southeast, eastward off
the northeast side of the ridge and through the weakness will be a
series of mid-level impulses which will contribute to ascent upon a
very moist, deep layer environment. Precipitable waters look to be
above normal for the first quarter of July at near 2.00 inches on
average Friday. An increase on the upper end of the anticipated
range to 2.25" in spots is possible by Saturday. With that and
taking into consideration sufficient daytime instability, likely
to categorical chances of showers and storms is favored during the
course of the day. Each night, PoPs lower over land zones and
increase over the marine areas which will be of a typical summer-
time diurnal convective mode.

A few strong storms and perhaps a brief severe storm cannot be
ruled out. Given high environmental moisture, heavy rainfall is not
out of the question too which may contribute to localized, mainly
nuisance type flooding.

Overnight lows forecast in the lower to mid 70s interior and mid
to upper 70s coast. Daytime highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s
Friday come in close to normal. Saturday's highs mostly in the
lower half of the 90s. /10

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

05.12Z global spectral models show a long-wave upper trough
positioned and moving little to none at all, over the eastern
half of the CONUS through the middle of next week. Given the
position of the trough axis, a series of potential convective
complexes look to be dropping southeast through the base of the
mean trough position over the central Gulf coast. Deep layer
ascent from these impulses, little overall change in deep
moisture, daytime instability and presence of mesoscale boundaries
at the surface to focus storms supports a continuation in a wet
outlook.

As with all typical summer-time storms, a few could become strong
or briefly intensify to severe levels with the main threats of
wet microbursts and small hail being possible. Additionally,
storms will also be efficient heavy rainfall producers along with
frequent lightning activity. Given that storms maybe slow moving
at times, will have to watch for the potential of nuisance
flooding in low lying areas.

At the surface, high pressure continues to nose into the Gulf
through early next week supporting a mainly west to southwesterly
component in the surface wind through the period.

Highs through the period to range mainly in the low to mid 90s,
although, areas north of I-10 could only see mid to upper 80s
depending on cloud and convective coverage or some 3 to 6 degrees
below normal. If onset of thickening cloud cover and daily storms
is slower to occur, daily heat indices look to rise to a range of
102 to 107 posing a concern for heat related stress risk. Lows to
remain muggy through the period. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible
near thunderstorms. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  93  73  92  73  93  75  94 /  40  80  40  80  30  80  30  80
Pensacola   77  92  76  92  76  92  78  93 /  40  70  40  80  40  70  40  80
Destin      78  89  78  92  78  92  79  93 /  30  60  40  70  40  70  40  80
Evergreen   71  91  71  91  70  93  73  92 /  20  60  30  60  20  60  20  80
Waynesboro  71  90  71  90  71  91  73  93 /  30  80  30  70  20  60  20  70
Camden      71  90  70  89  70  91  72  90 /  20  60  20  60  20  50  20  70
Crestview   72  94  72  94  71  94  73  94 /  20  70  30  80  30  80  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob