Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
403 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Round one of strong to severe storms is currently ongoing with
damaging winds continuing across the Florida Panhandle. The next
wave will come tonight as a large upper trough moves across the
Ohio Valley pushing a cold front into the area. Ahead of the cold
front, another round of storms will be possible after midnight.
The question with this round is how much instability will be left
over for storms to utilize in the wake of this afternoons storms.
Given how potent this first round has been and rather weak
advection ahead of the next trough, instability will be meager at
beast and likely overworked. There may be a very narrow corridor
across southeastern Mississippi/coastal Alabama where we might be
able to get just enough to support a strong storm but nothing like
what we saw during the day. Rain will quickly move out as the
front pushes through during the morning. Luckily we will be done
with the messy weather for a little bit behind the front as skies
will quickly clear and dewpoints crater into the 40s. THANK
HEAVENS! Temperatures will be mild with cloud cover and northerly
winds behind the front with highs in the low 70s. BB/03

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Dry start to the week. Ridging aloft slowly builds overhead as the
trough lifts into the Great Lakes region and toward the Northeast. A
surface high builds into the region from the west and settles
overhead on Tuesday. PWATs drop to less than a half inch and rain
chances remain at 0%. High temperatures steadily rebound throughout
the early part of the week with lows remaining in the 40s and 50s on
both Sunday night and Monday night.

Beach Note: Risk of rip currents remains MODERATE through Sunday
night with surf heights of 2-3 feet. The risk drops back to a LOW
through mid-week. 07/mb

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Mid-week remains dry with low-end rain chances late in the week
through early this weekend. Flow aloft becomes less amplified as we
head deeper into the week as the ridge slides further east and a
series of weak shortwaves pivot across the region. The local area
remains on the western periphery of the surface high as it slides
into the western Atlantic, so we maintain southerly surface flow. A
front may attempt to slide into the region on Friday, which would
increase the rain chances. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through
tonight. A cold front is expected to move through the marine zones
late tonight through Sunday morning, allowing for winds turn
northwesterly and increase to a moderate to strong flow by Sunday
night. Small craft conditions are expected Sunday night. Winds
subside during the day on Monday. A light to occasionally moderate
onshore flow returns by midweek. Winds and seas will be higher
near scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late today
and into tonight. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow
will then continue into early Monday. The higher winds and seas
could pose a hazard to small craft. /12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  75  49  75  50  78  56  79 /  80  30   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   67  77  53  74  54  76  58  77 /  70  50   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      68  78  56  76  58  76  62  77 /  70  60   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   62  76  46  75  47  83  52  83 /  70  30   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  59  72  45  74  47  81  52  81 /  70  10   0   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      61  73  46  73  47  82  51  83 /  60  20   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   63  81  49  77  48  83  52  84 /  70  60   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for
     GMZ670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
419 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 SSW BROOKLEY FIELD AS 30.58N 88.07W
04/15/2023  M43 MPH          MOBILE             AL   MESONET

            MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST TO 43MPH AT
            MESONET STATION (XBUC) BUCCANEER YC.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
421 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND BROOKLEY FIELD ASOS     30.62N 88.07W
04/15/2023  M41 MPH          MOBILE             AL   ASOS

            MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST TO 41MPH AT
            ASOS STATION (KBFM) MOBILE BROOKLEY FIELD.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
428 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 SSE NAVARRE           30.38N 86.86W
04/15/2023  M56 MPH          SANTA ROSA         FL   MESONET

            MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST TO 56MPH AT
            WEATHERSTEM STATION NEAR NAVARRE.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
431 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 ENE PENSACOLA BEACH   30.34N 87.12W
04/15/2023  M52 MPH          ESCAMBIA           FL   MESONET

            MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 52MPH AT
            WEATHERSTEM STATION ON PENSACOLA BEACH.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
438 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND MARY ESTHER             30.42N 86.67W
04/15/2023  M43 MPH          OKALOOSA           FL   AWOS

            MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST TO 43MPH AT
            THE AWOS STATION ON HURLBURT FIELD (KHRT).

&&

MB

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