Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
613 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

Shower and storm development remains possible through Wednesday
morning causing temporary reductions in visibility and ceilings to
IFR and below in any of the heavier shower and storm activity
that develops over the area. Some storms could become severe,
capable of producing damaging straight line winds, brief tornadoes,
and hail. Current satellite imagery and observations show mainly
MVFR conditions (isolated VFR conditions), with scattered showers
and thunderstorms spread out across the region (mainly along the
I-65 corridor). Expecting MVFR ceilings to prevail across the area
through the early evening, becoming low-end MVFR to IFR later
this evening and early tonight. Around 06Z, expecting a further
lowering of ceilings to IFR/LIFR across the region as a frontal
system tracks east, with a secondary line of storms moving across
the area during the late overnight hours and into early Wednesday
morning. Expecting this line to reach terminals generally between
10Z-12Z, and expecting showers/storms within this line to
temporarily reduce visibilities to IFR and below. Mainly IFR and
below ceilings are then expected to persist through the morning
hours before quickly improving from northwest to southeast to
MVFR by mid-morning, and then VFR by the late morning and into
the afternoon as the frontal system quickly tracks east of the
area and dry air advects into the region in the fronts wake. Winds
remain southerly around 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts possible
tonight, becoming more westerly to northwesterly and diminishing
to around 10 kts or less in the wake of the front. JEH/88

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

..Isolated Severe Weather Remains Possible through Early
Wednesday Morning...

Severe weather continues to be possible through early Wednesday
morning as a trough aloft and frontal system traverses the south,
albeit more isolated in nature through the early evening hours.
Expecting an overall lull in activity during the late evening
hours through around midnight with activity returning ahead of
the main secondary line. This line is associated with the frontal
system that looks to move through after midnight tonight and
through Wednesday morning. The main threats respectively
associated with the secondary line will be a more straight line
damaging wind threat with an embedded brief tornado possible, and
hail being the least concerning threat. Instability continues to
persist over the region ahead of the front, however, overall
dynamic support is limiting strong convective development.
Abundant deep layer moisture will remain in place through
Wednesday morning with PWATs generally ranging from 1.5-1.6
inches. With this, flash flooding remains a concern until the
passage of the front. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
through late tonight into early Wednesday morning. As far as other
current hazards in place, persistent strong southerly winds have
caused an increase in surf heights to 4 to 6 feet. Therefore, a
High Surf Advisory and a High Risk of rip currents are in effect
through Wednesday afternoon and late Wednesday night respectively.

As of now, guidance for Coastal Flooding continues to remain just
below advisory criteria and will not be issuing a Coastal Flood
Advisory. However, we will continue to closely monitor the need
for a a brief advisory through the evening into the early
Wednesday morning timeframe. Some minor splashover into low-
lying/vulnerable areas cannot be ruled out. Lastly, as for
temperatures tonight, lows tonight are only expected to drop into
the low to mid 60s. Mild temperatures continue for Wednesday,
with highs generally in the low to mid 70s with skies quickly
clearing from west to east as the cold front finally pushes
through by Wednesday afternoon. JEH/88

SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

Axis of upper level trof swings east Wednesday night and Thursday,
bringing drier air across the deep south. Short wave upper ridge
advances east across the Gulf Friday. Following the passage of the
front earlier on Wednesday, surface high pressure over Texas
Thursday morning expands eastward to east of the MS Valley Friday
and Friday night. After the recent warm spell, overnight lows to
start the period trend cooler and much more worthy of early January
with mid to upper 40s north of I-10 and lower to mid 50s coast.
Thursday and Friday night's numbers range 37 to 42 north of I-10 and
mostly mid to upper 40s coast. Highs Thursday and Friday mostly in
the lower to mid 60s. /10

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

Short-wave upper level ridge over the Gulf pushes eastward across
the Gulf Saturday. Axis of surface high slips east off the Mid-
Atlantic coast Saturday night. Rain-free conditions expected through
early Saturday night. Slight chance PoPs return late Saturday night
over the western zones then eastward across the I-65 corridor Sunday
as next southern stream mid/upper level impulse pivots east out of
Texas and across the Lower MS River Valley. At same time, next front
pushes across the region. By the early part of next week, latest
03.12Z spectral models begin to diverge on solutions. The ECMWF
brings the passage of a fast eastward propagating impulse across the
deep south Tuesday which would support an increased chance of rain
while the GFS takes its more amplified impulse southeast and off the
upper Texas coast which would keep the best rain chances to our
south out over the Gulf. Plenty of time to iron out the details as
confidence is low on any one solution. For now will maintain a small
chance of showers early next week.

Highs Saturday range from the upper 60s/lower 70s. On Sunday, lower
60s along and north of US Hwy 84 and upper 60s/lower 70s southern
zones. Highs trend cooler Monday and Tuesday in the upper 50s/lower
60s interior to 62-67 coast. Overnight lows mostly 48 to 53 Saturday
night cool into the 40s for much of area by Tuesday morning. /10

MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

Moderate to strong onshore flow, along with building seas, is
expected through tonight as a cold front approaches the region. The
probability of high impact, dense marine fog over Mobile Bay and the
Mississippi sound is lower given the strength of the onshore flow
which favors better mixing of the boundary layer and presence of
better environmental instability. After the passage of the front on
Wednesday, moderate northwesterly flow will then follow for late
week. Seas will also subside through late week. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      62  74  48  67  41  66  46  71 /  80  30   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   66  76  53  69  44  65  48  70 /  80  70   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      67  77  56  70  49  66  51  68 /  80  80   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   63  74  45  66  37  63  38  69 /  80  50   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  58  71  45  62  37  62  41  69 /  90  10   0   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      62  71  46  61  37  60  39  67 /  80  40   0   0   0   0   0  10
Crestview   65  76  50  67  41  64  41  67 /  80  80   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ALZ051>060-261-262.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for ALZ265-
     266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ202-
     204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ630>632-650.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW GROVE HILL        31.70N 87.82W
01/03/2023                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 84, TWO MILES WEST
            OF THE HIGHWAY 84/HIGHWAY 43 INTERSECTION.

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E PEACOCK             31.76N 87.75W
01/03/2023                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG FLORAL CREEK ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
535 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE PEACOCK           31.73N 87.77W
01/03/2023                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO AWNING AT CLARKE PREP SCHOOL ON
            OLD HIGHWAY 43 AND DOWNED TREES NEARBY.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
855 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

ALZ051-040330-
Choctaw AL-
855 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Choctaw
County through 930 PM CST...

At 854 PM CST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 6 miles west of Toxey, or 14 miles southwest of
Butler, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Butler and Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3217 8805 3214 8804 3211 8805 3209 8804
      3206 8807 3207 8810 3206 8811 3203 8812
      3184 8841 3189 8847 3200 8846 3220 8822
      3221 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 228DEG 32KT 3194 8841

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Black