Small Craft Advisory 63, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1100 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

VFR conditions prevail across the forecast area tonight into
Saturday. Only nuance to the forecast will be a wind shift
Saturday morning into early afternoon from southeasterly winds to
easterly winds at around 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 951 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023/

..New UPDATE...

UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

Forecast is more or less on track tonight, but did make a few
slight adjustments to overnight low temperature forecast. Current
temps and dewpoints are above what was previously expected for
this time, and the previously forecasted overnight lows look like
they are probably several degrees cooler than what we will likely
see. While it was a tough call, we decided to raise the overnight
lows by a few degrees from most locations (especially locations
inland, away from the coast). Otherwise, no changes from previous
forecast package. /12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023/

.New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

VFR conditions prevail across the forecast area tonight into
Saturday. Only nuance to the forecast will be a wind shift
Saturday morning into early afternoon from southeasterly winds to
easterly winds at around 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 403 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

Broad upper ridging over the southern Great Plains will shift
eastward over the southeast states by late Saturday afternoon
ahead of a potent western states upper trough. A surface ridge
located along the Eastern Seaboard and across the southeast
states will continue to promote a light easterly to southeasterly
flow over the area through the period. Deep layer moisture
continues to remain too limited to consider pops through the near
term. Low temperatures tonight range from around 40 degrees well
inland to around 50 at the coast. Highs on Saturday will be around
70 degrees. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through
Saturday. /22

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 403 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

An active upper pattern over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley/Southeast sees several rounds of shortwave energy passing
over the regions. The first round crosses the forecast area and
nearby Sunday, shifting a band of good moisture influx east to over
the area, and increasing precipitable h20 values over the forecast
area into the 1.3"-1.5" range by Sunday evening. Rain returns to the
area in the process. A second, stronger shortwave passes Christmas
Eve into Christmas Day, bringing another round round of rain with
enough instability and dynamics mixed in for thunderstorms.
Precipitable h20 values rise into the 1.4"-1.6" range Christmas Eve
night into Christmas Day. When combined with the increased
instability and upper dynamics, much heavier rain is likely before a
cold front crosses the forecast area late Christmas day into the
Christmas night. Strong onshore flow will precede the passing
surface trough, with a High Risk of rip currents along expected with
minor coastal flooding possible.

Taking a closer look at any WWAs/significant weather, first item
to deal with is the rain. For Christmas Eve night, WPC has the
portion of the forecast area south of a New Augusta, MS to
Barrineau Park, Fl line in a slight risk of Excessive Rain. For
Christmas Day, WPC shifts the area east to most of the area south
of I-65. The more progressive nature of the system moving through
will help to lower the risk of a watch, so playing this by ear.
The strong onshore flow will bring an increasing Rip Risk, with a
current Moderate becoming High on Christmas Eve, and remaining so
through Tuesday. Also, guidance is advertising surf heights rising
to 4 to 6 feet Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, with a coastal
flood advisory possibly being needed. The instability and upper
dynamics remain low enough for the risk of severe weather to be
low.

Lastly, temperatures remain well above seasonal, with high
temperatures in the mid 60s to around 70 each day. Low
temperatures Saturday night in the upper 40s well inland to upper
50s near the coast rise into the mid 50s to around 60 Christmas
Eve, then fall into the mid to upper 40s west of I-65 to low to
mid 50s southeast. /16

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 403 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

Another series of passing shortwave shift the cold front that
moved over the area in the Short Term to over the open Gulf before
it stalls. A slight chance of rain may creep north to the coast
late Wednesday into Thursday, but for most of the land portion of
forecast area, a dry forecast is expected. Temperature drop to
below seasonal norms and remain so for the rest of the forecast.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 403 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary mainly for the
open Gulf waters from late Saturday night into early Monday
morning due to a moderate to strong easterly flow which gradually
becomes southerly. Winds and seas may be higher near storms
mainly from Sunday into Monday. The onshore flow diminishes
Monday afternoon, followed by northwesterly winds late Monday
through midweek. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      50  70  54  67  59  70  48  60 /   0   0  10  70 100  70  10  10
Pensacola   51  68  57  67  62  70  53  63 /   0   0  10  50 100  90  30  10
Destin      53  70  58  70  63  71  57  66 /   0   0  10  40  90 100  40  10
Evergreen   41  71  48  69  56  69  48  61 /   0   0   0  30  90  90  30  10
Waynesboro  45  70  49  65  54  70  44  58 /   0   0  10  60 100  60  10   0
Camden      40  69  48  67  55  67  46  58 /   0   0   0  30  90  90  30  10
Crestview   42  72  49  68  58  70  51  64 /   0   0   0  30  90  90  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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