Small Craft Advisory 45, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

A cold front continues to push across the region this evening.
Behind it, a low stratus deck, with ceilings ranging from
approximately 800 to 1500 feet, is currently located along and
northwest of I-65. This deck will continue to slowly drift
southeast throughout the remainder of the night into Tuesday
morning. The deck should begin to lift and scattered out by
tomorrow afternoon. Breezy northerly winds, with gusts up to 20-30
knots will also continue through much of the period. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

A large positively tilted upper trof located mostly over the
central CONUS takes on a somewhat more meridional orientation
while progressing into the eastern half of the CONUS through
Tuesday. An associated surface low has currently brought a cold
front to near the I-65 corridor, and the front continues through
the remainder of the area this afternoon. A massive dome of cold
surface high pressure progressively builds into the region in the
wake of the front through Tuesday, and ushers unseasonably cold
air into the area. Layer lifting in the wake of the front along
with just enough moisture looks sufficient to support some small
pops late tonight west of I-65 and roughly along and west of the
I-65 corridor Tuesday morning. Dry conditions are otherwise
expected. Lows tonight will be in the 40s along and west of I-65
and in the upper 40s to lower 50s further to the east. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s along and west of
I-65 and in the lower to mid 60s further to the east. A low risk
of rip currents is expected for tonight and Tuesday. /29

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

Dry and unseasonably cool temperatures continue over the area
through the period, with the coldest night occurring Wednesday
night. Lows Tuesday night range from around freezing well inland
to the upper 30s/around 40 at the immediate coast. Have issued a
Freeze Watch for interior areas which will be in effect from late
Tuesday night until early Wednesday morning. Highs on Wednesday
will be mostly 55 to 60, nearly 15 degrees below seasonable
levels, then lows Wednesday night range from the upper 20s to
lower 30s inland to around 40 at the coast. Another Freeze Watch
or Warning may become necessary for interior areas Wednesday
night. Highs on Thursday will be a bit warmer and in the lower to
mid 60s, then lows Thursday night range from the mid 30s well
inland to the mid 40s at the immediate coast. A low risk of rip
currents is expected through the period. /29

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

Several rounds of shortwave energy move through zonal upper flow
over the Southeast, shifting a surface ridge stretching northeast
along the East Coast southward to over the Southeast. A dry
airmass over the forecast area sees a bit of modification through
the Extended, but not enough to warrant the mention of rain.
Temperatures rise from around seasonal norms on Friday to well
above seasonal norms by Sunday, and remain so into the coming
week. /16

FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning has been issued for southeast
Mississippi, and portions of southwest and south central Alabama
due to afternoon relative humidity values dropping to below
critical levels along with gusty northerly winds. In addition, the
persistent severe to extreme drought intensity over the local
area combines with this environment to contribute to the potential
for extreme fire behavior. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect
for the entire area on Wednesday for similar conditions. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the marine area
beginning at 7 pm this evening and expands to include the
remaining portion by mid Tuesday afternoon. A Gale Watch will be
in effect from 7 pm Tuesday until mid Wednesday morning for the
open Gulf waters, southern Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound.
The Small Craft Advisory gradually comes to an end later Wednesday
morning into early Thursday morning as the strong offshore flow
gradually subsides. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      48  62  37  59  36  66  40  74 /  10  20   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   53  63  41  59  42  65  47  73 /   0  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      56  68  44  63  44  68  50  75 /   0  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   46  62  32  59  30  66  35  73 /  10  20   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  42  58  31  55  30  63  33  70 /  30  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      43  59  32  56  29  63  34  69 /  20  20   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   50  65  34  60  31  67  38  75 /   0  10   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>059-
     261>263.

     Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for ALZ051>058.

     Fire Weather Watch Wednesday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Fire Weather Watch Wednesday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

     Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for MSZ067.

     Fire Weather Watch Wednesday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ631-632-650-
     655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ631-
     632-650-655.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
     GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
     GMZ633>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 10 AM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ670-675.

&&

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