Small Craft Advisory 25, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
643 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread inland this
inland this morning, with coverage tapering off over the coastal
counties by late morning. VFR conditions gradually lower to MVFR
near the coast later this evening and then over the remainder of
the area tonight. IFR and MVFR ceilings will slowly improve by
late this afternoon. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 503 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

The upper low centered over southeast Louisiana will drift slowly
to near the border of central Mississippi/central Alabama through
today. An associated surface low just south of Mobile Bay will
quickly move north-northwestward today, with guidance in general
agreement reaching into central Mississippi by late this
afternoon, and there remains some uncertainty as to how quickly
the system weakens. A frontal boundary along the immediate coastal
areas will continue northward through much of the remainder of
the forecast area through the day. Current radar shows a solid
areas of moderate to heavy rain across coastal Alabama and west of
the Alabama River. Much lower coverage is occurring to the east
of the river as a dry slot is currently wrapping around the upper
low impacts coverage of precipitation, but this will eventually
fill in with rain throughout the morning. Coverage is expected to
decrease sufficiently over the southern portion of the area by
late this morning to go with chance pops, then pops decrease for
much of the area during the late afternoon and evening hours.

SBCAPE values today east of the Tombigbee River will reside
between of 500-1000 J/kg. There remains an intersection of
favorable shear and instability generally over Alabama east of the
Tombigbee River, resulting in the potential for strong to
severe storm potential. This area has been upgraded to a Slight
Risk for today. A high surf advisory remains in effect for beach
areas until 1 pm today, and a high rip current risk remains in
effect through tonight. /22

SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Overall, not much change to the previous forecast. Aloft a trough
advances across the western states into the central states through
Saturday and begins to strengthen Saturday night. An associated
surface low lifts from the central Plains to the Great Lakes, and
in the process brings a cold front through the forecast area late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Deep layer moisture
improves over the area as the front approaches, and will have
slight chance to chance pops return to the forecast for Saturday.
Have continued with chance pops for Saturday night (with likely
near the coast), then slight chance to chance pops follow for
Sunday morning as the front moves through the area. For Sunday
afternoon, have gone with small pops over the eastern portion of
the area for lingering precipitation in the wake of the front.
Shear values look to be generally modest ahead of the frontal
passage, and instability values appear to be generally limited
except for possibly the western portion of the area Saturday
afternoon into the early evening hours. At this time, the
environment does not appear to support much of a risk for strong
to severe storms but will continue to monitor. A high risk of rip
currents Thursday night will be followed by a moderate risk for
Friday and Friday night, afterwards a low risk is anticipated.
Lows Thursday night range from the mid to upper 50s around and
west of I-65 to around 60 further to the east. Lows Friday night
range from the mid 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the immediate
coast, then Saturday night will have lows in the lower to mid
60s. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be mostly in the mid to
upper 70s (some low 80s). JEH/88

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Very dry deep layer air flows into the area in the wake of the
cold front along with a surface high building into the area
through Monday night. A surface ridge evolves along the northern
Gulf coast by Tuesday which allows for a light return flow to
ensue, but deep layer moisture looks to remain too limited to
support consideration of pops and have continued with a dry
forecast through Wednesday. A gradual warm up in temps will occur
through the period, with mid 70s for highs to start of on Monday,
reaching low to mid 80s by Wednesday. Low temps follow suit, with
mid to upper 40s to starts off the period Sunday night, increasing
to the mid to upper 50s by Tuesday night. JEH/88

MARINE...
Issued at 503 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Moderate to strong southerly to southeasterly winds diminish to a
light to moderate while becoming southwesterly today. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect until 1 pm today winds and seas
to subside. Light to moderate onshore flow will follow through the
remainder of the week ahead of a cold front approaching from the
northwest. Winds will turn northwesterly to northerly early next
week as the front sweeps through the area. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  55  77  60  77  65  78  50 /  80  20   0   0  60  50  40   0
Pensacola   74  61  76  63  76  67  78  54 /  60  30   0   0  50  60  50   0
Destin      75  64  76  66  77  68  78  56 /  60  30   0   0  40  60  60   0
Evergreen   76  56  77  55  81  62  78  46 /  80  30   0   0  30  40  40   0
Waynesboro  67  53  77  56  79  62  76  47 /  90  30   0   0  40  50  20   0
Camden      73  54  76  55  81  62  77  47 /  70  50   0   0  30  40  30   0
Crestview   77  58  80  57  83  63  81  49 /  70  20   0   0  30  60  50   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
845 AM CDT THU APR 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND EAST END OF DAUPHIN     30.25N 88.08W
04/13/2023  E46 MPH          GMZ650             AL   MESONET

            DILA1 AND FORT GAINES RECORDED WINDS GUSTS
            RANGING FROM 45 TO 50 MPH BEGINNING AT
            518AM.

&&

JEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
849 AM CDT THU APR 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 E ORANGE BEACH        30.30N 87.51W
04/13/2023  E46 MPH          GMZ633             AL   MESONET

            MILL POINT HURRICANE STATION RECORDED A MAX
            WIND GUST OF 40 KTS.

&&

JEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
852 AM CDT THU APR 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 ENE PINTO ISLAND      30.68N 88.01W
04/13/2023  E49 MPH          GMZ630             AL   MESONET

            USS ALABAMA RECORDED A MAX WIND GUST OF
            43KTS.

&&

JEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
854 AM CDT THU APR 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 WNW GULF BREEZE       30.37N 87.21W
04/13/2023  E45 MPH          GMZ634             FL   MESONET

            FAIR POINT LIGHT HURRICANE STATION RECORDED
            A MAX WIND GUST OF 39 KTS.

&&

JEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
859 AM CDT THU APR 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 E ORIOLE BEACH        30.38N 87.02W
04/13/2023  E49 MPH          SANTA ROSA         FL   MESONET

            WEATHER STATION SOUNDSIDE RECORDED A MAX
            WIND GUST OF 43 KNOTS.

&&

JEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
907 AM CDT THU APR 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 E ORIOLE BEACH        30.38N 87.00W
04/13/2023  E45 MPH          GMZ634             FL   MESONET

            SANTA ROSA SOUND RECORDED WIND GUSTS RANGING
            FROM 35 TO 41 KNOTS FROM 6:27AM TO 6:47AM.

&&

JEH