Small Craft Advisory 23, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
102 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

VFR conditions persist through Wednesday morning with gusty
easterly winds expected through sunset today. Isolated rain
showers remain possible today and tonight before more substantial
rain moves into the area Wednesday afternoon. Gusty winds will
develop again Wednesday morning with MVFR ceilings moving into the
coastal TAF sites by early afternoon. 07/mb

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

A closed upper low will meander around over the Louisiana Gulf
coast into mid week. A surface ridge centered over the Carolinas
builds east and west over the eastern Conus through tonight before
a surface low develops south of the Louisiana coast, then heads
northwest. Guidance continues to be inconsistent with formation
area/path and deepening. For land areas, a tight pressure gradient
over the northern Gulf will bring moderate to strong easterly
winds and building seas along the coast. Increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will move inland over the forecast area
through the Near Term as the surface low develops and moves
northwest. Areas along and north of Highway 84 will be the last to
see any showers, with a slight chance of measurable precipitation
by Wednesday evening. Along the I-10 corridor, PoPs rise into the
40-55% percent range by Wednesday evening. Increasing cloud cover
and moderating flow off the Gulf will create a less than normal
temperature range over the forecast area. High temperatures in the
low to mid 70s are expected today and Wednesday, a bit below
seasonal norms. Tonight is expected to see low temperatures
ranging from around 50 along and north of Highway 84 to around 60
along the coast, above seasonal norms.

Impacts in the Near Term are expected to be along and south of the
coast and along area coastal bays. Strong easterly winds
developing along and south of the coast will bring increasing seas
and for the coast, increasing surf heights, along with an
increasing risk of Rip currents is expected into mid week. Also,
the strong easterly flow will bring increasing water levels to the
west side of area coastal bays and possible tidal piling. A High
Risk of rip currents is in effect. A High Surf Advisory and
Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed in the near future.
Inconsistent strength of the winds impacting the north-central
Gulf is bringing inconsistent magnitudes of swell to area beaches
along with tidal piling, with conditions needed for these
advisories not consistently being met at this time. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      59  72  60  74  61  79  63  81 /  20  60  80  80  20   0   0  40
Pensacola   61  71  63  74  65  77  66  78 /  10  50  80  80  30  10   0  40
Destin      62  74  64  76  67  77  68  78 /  10  50  80  80  40  10   0  30
Evergreen   52  74  57  74  58  80  58  83 /   0  30  60  80  30  10   0  30
Waynesboro  52  73  57  72  58  79  59  83 /   0  30  60  80  20   0   0  40
Camden      49  76  56  72  58  78  58  83 /   0  20  60  80  30  10   0  30
Crestview   54  76  59  77  59  81  59  84 /   0  40  70  90  40  10   0  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

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