Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1157 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

VFR ceilings continue to prevail across most of the area late
this evening, and although light rains also persist it has become
less widespread for now. Rains could become more widespread again
late tonight, with ceilings gradually lowering. By around 11/09z
ceilings likely becoming MVFR, then IFR toward daybreak Saturday
morning. Occasional light to moderate rainfall will continue
through Saturday. Winds generally remain light northerly at 5 to
10 knots, but gusty at times on Saturday, before becoming more
westerly by late Saturday evening. /12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

VFR ceilings continue to prevail across most of the area early
this evening, although widespread light rains also persist for
much of the area as well. Ceilings should gradually lower
overnight, becoming MVFR by around midnight for most of the area,
then likely IFR late tonight into early Saturday morning.
Occasional light to moderate rainfall will continue for the
entire forecast period. Winds generally remain light northerly at
5 to 10 knots, but gusty at times on Saturday. /12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

The rainy pattern continues through early this weekend along with
cool conditions and raw northerly winds as a surface low pressure
area forming across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and lifts
northward. Currently the highest PWATs ranging from 1.0 to 1.5
inches is along and southeast of I-65. This axis of moisture will
expand northwestward, along with an expanding rain shield, by late
tonight ahead of a closed upper low centered over the Red River
Valley that will dive southeastward. This upper low will then track
eastward on Saturday, becoming centered over coast Alabama by late
Saturday afternoon. While rain chances remain high on Saturday, we
expect light to moderate rain showers with no thunder. Between now
and Saturday afternoon, a general 1-2 inches of rain will fall. For
the area as a whole, we are not overly concerned with the threat for
flooding, however, we may need to watch parts of eastern zones given
the rainfall that area has already received over the past 24+ hours.
If a band of moderate rain sets up across those counties, it may
quickly lead to minor flooding concerns for the urban and poor
drainage areas. Temperatures will remain below normal through the
period. /22

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 348 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

Saturday night will just continue the rather cold and just
downright raw weather. Rain will be ongoing as moisture wraps
around a rather deep upper level low centered over Alabama. This
won't be any normal rain either, it'll be a rather cold rain as
profiles are rather cold aloft and with a rather shallow near
surface "warm layer" (temperatures in the 40s) keeping things
liquid and when you add on a 20 mph north wind due to the strong
low just to our northeast it will be downright awful out. What I'm
saying is if you plan on going outside on Saturday night then you
are going to want to bring some layers and dry clothes/rain
coats. Luckily Sunday till be better as the upper low lifts
quickly northeast bringing much drier air in its wake as high
pressure builds in. Expect cooler conditions Sunday before the
warmup begins once again heading into next week. Highs on Sunday
will probably be in the 50s with lows in the 30s before heating up
into the 60s by Monday. BB/03

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

The pattern gets rather spicy as we head into the middle of the week
as we will most likely be dealing with our weekly severe weather
threat. Deep southwesterly flow will begin to setup as a rather
large and broad based longwave trough slowly moves eastward
Tuesday through Friday. Embedded within this upper trough will be
several rather potent shortwave troughs that will lead to several
days of active weather. One thing to note is that ensemble
guidance is rather consistent with the large scale pattern leading
to at least some higher confidence in overall potential with this
system. Obviously, any local impacts will be ironed out by
smaller scale details as we approach the middle of next week.
Nonetheless, the first shortwave appears to pivot through sometime
on Tuesday and quickly eject north into the northern Great
Plains. As a result we will be on the tail end of the forcing and
the associated cold front will likely stall somewhere across or
north of highway 84 Tuesday night. Some heavier rain and possibly
some storms could accompany this system, but really this is just
an appetizer and sets the stage for the next system to come.

Since this system lifts north so quickly and the associated front
never pushes through the area, southwesterly flow will remain aloft
with the influences of the longwave trough Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Storms will likely remain focused along the stalled
frontal boundary providing a focus for possibly a local strip of
heavy rainfall. With time, the surface front will begin to surge
back northward as a warm front in advance of the second and much
more potent shortwave. A rather large open warm sector will develop
south of the warm front across the Gulf Coast states.
From a synoptic standpoint (excluding finer details), this trough
certainly checks a lot of the check-boxes for a more active
severe weather day across the deep south and given the fairly
strong agreement across the model suites a 15% day 7 severe risk
has been introduced by the Storm Prediction Center for our entire
area. We will obviously have to monitor as we get closer and the
finer mesoscale details become clear but at the minimum expect
some heavy rain and storms to roll trough during the day on
Thursday potentially lingering into Thursday night as the trough
ejects and the associated cold front moves across the area. Things
should dry out into Friday behind the front. BB/03

MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023
A moderate to strong offshore flow will continue through
noon Sunday and then gradually decrease by late Sunday afternoon
through Sunday night. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the
Gulf through Sunday afternoon, and may need to be expanded to
include some, if not all, of the bays and sounds over the weekend.
Seas over the Gulf from 3 to 6 ft will build to 6 to 10 ft Saturday
night. Winds will then turn southerly Monday night and increase
Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of the next system. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      47  54  40  60  37  65  46  71 /  80  70  30   0   0   0   0  20
Pensacola   50  57  44  60  41  64  50  70 /  90  90  40   0   0   0   0  10
Destin      52  61  46  61  44  64  52  70 /  90  90  50   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   46  56  39  58  34  65  41  71 /  70  90  80   0   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  42  50  37  58  34  66  43  70 /  30  80  80   0   0   0   0  40
Camden      44  53  39  56  35  64  42  69 /  40  90  90   0   0   0   0  20
Crestview   48  59  41  59  35  66  42  72 /  90  90  60   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

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