Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
707 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

LIFR/IFR ceilings over the coastal sections will improve to MVFR
levels by late morning, while areas inland remain in MVFR
conditions. High-end MVFR and VFR ceilings ceilings then expected
this afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
through this evening, but mainly affecting interior areas. Large
hail, strong gusty winds, and high lightning rates will be
possible with the stronger storms. Closer to the coast, including
all the TAF sites, strong thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon with small hail and brief wind gusts up to 40 mph with
the stronger storms. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

We are gearing up for a significant severe weather event to unfold
today and this evening as the environment is already primed for the
develop of supercells. Regional radar is detecting deep nocturnal
convection has developed across central Alabama, with reports of
golfball size hail. Additional convection has begun to fire further
west as the nose of a 500mb jet approaches from the west. We are
monitoring this system closely as the severe weather threat has
rapidly evolved and is trending upward with each model run. The main
focus for this early morning development is situated along and either
side of a low-level west-east oriented boundary near the northern
edge of our forecast area. The first Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been issued for Choctaw, Clarke, and Wilcox counties until 8 AM.

The latest mesoanalysis is showing SBCAPE values north of I-10 up to
this boundary have risen to between 2500-3000 J/KG, with MLCAPE
values between 1700-2200 J/KG. CAPE values then lower dramatically
the further north you go across the boundary. Area evening soundings
showed a very high Equilibrium Level (EL) close to 40,000 feet, with
plenty of available CAPE within and above the hail growth zone. Long
and straight hodographs with moderate Storm Relative Inflow will
favor wide updrafts minimizing dry-air entrainment, and support
splitting supercells. Given this parameter space, large hail in
excess of 2 inches will be possible throughout the morning across the
northern tier of the forecast area despite the lower CAPE values.

A potent shortwave will move eastward over central Mississippi this
afternoon, with good upper level difluence occurring mainly over our
northwest and northern zones. Effective Bulk Shear values ranging
from 45 knots along I-10 up to 55 knots across our northwest zones
will favor damaging severe wind gusts where stronger convection is
realized. In addition, SFC-3KM SRH values between 150 to 250 M2/S2
will remain throughout the day, with the higher values closer to the
low level boundary, so a tornado or two will be possible given the
strong, rapid updraft potential. We highly anticipate additional
Watches throughout the day and evening. Lastly, these storms will
likely be efficient rainfall producers and be capable of producing
heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. This, along with the
potential for training storms, will lead to possible minor flooding
concerns as well.

A surface low pressure area will pass well north of the region
tonight, with an associated cold front entering into our northwest
zones after midnight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will remain
overnight ahead of and along the front. This cold front will then
continue to move southeastward through noon Monday, but stall just
north of the coast, providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms,
especially along and southeast of I-65. /22

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

One last push will come Monday night into Tuesday as the caboose of
the shortwave express pushes across the Ohio river valley. This
shortwave will be rather weak and removed offshore leading to more
gradual overrunning of the pesky surface front. Given the several
rounds of storms leading up to this, the atmosphere will likely be
pretty worked over and with the surface boundary likely pushing
slowly offshore, there will be little to no instability for storms to
work with. Thus, we do not expect any severe threat to materialize
with this round. Mainly just moderate to heavy rainfall north of the
boundary. By Tuesday afternoon, the system will quickly begin to move
out of the area ushering in cooler and drier weather Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday with highs struggling to climb
into the 70s given all the cloud cover and rainfall. Lows will
quickly drop into the 40s and 50s on Tuesday night. BB/03

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Upper ridging finally builds in the wake of the final shortwave
ushering a temporary dry period through the middle of the week. With
the surface boundary offshore and weak westerly to northwesterly flow
aloft it should be rather nice through Thursday. By Friday our next
system will arrive, as a rather strong upper trough moves out of the
central US and into the great lakes. For now we expect just showers
and storms as the surface front slowly moves south on Saturday into
Sunday. Temperatures will be mild to start the period with highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s before increasing into the weekend as
southerly flow returns. BB/03

MARINE...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

A light southerly flow prevails through Monday night then becomes
northerly on Tuesday as a cold front moves through the area. The
offshore flow strengthens Tuesday night and Small Craft Exercise
Caution headlines may be required, before winds diminish late
Wednesday. A light easterly flow will then follow Wednesday night and
Thursday. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      82  68  79  62  72  51  72  52 /  70  50  60  40  70   0   0   0
Pensacola   78  68  78  65  72  55  72  55 /  60  20  50  30  70   0   0   0
Destin      78  69  78  66  73  56  73  57 /  50  20  50  20  70  10   0   0
Evergreen   82  66  79  59  70  48  73  47 /  80  60  60  40  70   0   0   0
Waynesboro  79  64  81  58  70  47  71  47 /  90  70  30  50  60   0   0   0
Camden      79  63  79  56  69  47  69  45 /  80  80  40  40  50   0   0   0
Crestview   84  67  81  62  73  51  75  49 /  70  30  70  30  70   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
339 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

ALZ051-260915-
Choctaw AL-
339 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Choctaw
County through 415 AM CDT...

At 339 AM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 4 miles northwest of Lisman, or 11 miles
northwest of Butler, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lisman and Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
southwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3228 8794 3230 8794
      3230 8800 3228 8801 3228 8802 3227 8802
      3226 8801 3222 8801 3210 8841 3217 8844
      3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 241DEG 41KT 3221 8835

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Black

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
635 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

ALZ051-261215-
Choctaw AL-
635 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Choctaw
County through 715 AM CDT...

At 635 AM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Crandall, or 13 miles east of Quitman,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Butler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for southwestern
Alabama.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
southwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8802 3214 8804 3211 8805 3209 8804
      3206 8807 3207 8810 3205 8812 3201 8811
      3199 8810 3201 8809 3198 8806 3195 8808
      3197 8809 3195 8812 3194 8810 3194 8807
      3193 8806 3191 8847 3212 8845 3219 8801
TIME...MOT...LOC 1135Z 259DEG 31KT 3199 8850

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Black