Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
658 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

Some lingering showers and storms early this evening briefly
bringing MVFR (brief localized IFR) through around 05/01Z, then
primarly VFR conditions for the remainder of the night. Winds
generally light south to southwest overnight, then more westerly
during the day on Sunday. Some patchy light fog is possible in
some locations overnight. /12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

An active day is currently ongoing with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing. The bulk of
the storms are centered over the northwestern Florida Panhandle as a
slowly moving outflow boundary drifts westward. Upstream confluence
has allowed for backbuilding of storms along this boundary currently
located over central Santa Rosa County. PWATS in excess of 2 inches
will allow for efficient rain rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour and
slow west propagation will likely support heavy rainfall leading to
minor flooding and localized instances of flash flooding. Gusty
winds around 40 to 50 mph potentially up to 60 mph have been
occurring with this cluster of storms as it progresses westward. This
activity is expected to continue through the evening before subsiding
with the loss of daytime heating.

Sunday will be pretty close to a mirror replica of today as the
upper ridge over Texas continues to slowly retreat westward and
upper troughing digs into the Ohio River valley. A shortwave is
expected to propagate through the flow leading to scattered to
likely showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. The best rain
chances will be focused further east away from the influences of the
upper ridge. The main concerns will be with heavy rainfall and some
isolated instances of gusty winds as DCAPES float around 1000 J/KG.
PWATS will be around 2 to 2.25 inches which would once again support
heavy rainfall rates.

Prior to any storms, heat will be the talk as once again
temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in
the low to mid 70s. This will result in heat indices of around 110
to 112 or just below excessive heat warning. The only reason we did
not decide to pull the trigger on a heat warning is 1. Uncertainty
with afternoon storms across the area potentially limiting the heat
and 2. Majority of the area will likely fall within our 108 to 112
degree heat advisory criteria and not enough areas is expected to
see higher. However, some locations especially along the immediate
coastal interface will likely see heat indices of around 112 to
maybe some localized 113 during the afternoon as the seabreeze moves
inland. In the grand scheme of things this is splitting hairs and
the overall message is it will be absolutely miserable outside and
dangerous to spend extended periods outdoors. Be sure to drink
plenty of water and limit time in direct sunlight as much as
possible. BB/03

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

An upper level ridge of high pressure remains oriented across the
Desert Southwest and into west/southwest TX through Monday before
shifting eastward across south TX and the adjacent Gulf Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Mid level westerly mid to upper level flow
will meanwhile increase across MS/AL/northwest FL into early next
week along the base of a trough axis that amplifies somewhat east
of the MS River Valley. Convective coverage may be somewhat more
limited over the forecast area on Monday as compared to Sunday,
but moisture will be sufficient to keep isolated to scattered
storms in the forecast, particularly in the vicinity of the
western FL panhandle and adjacent south central AL. Storm chances
may trend higher on Tuesday, becoming more scattered to numerous
in coverage as a frontal boundary sinks southward into our region
along the amplifying mid level trough axis. Isolated strong to
severe storms will remain possible on Monday given MLCAPE values
of 2500-3500 J/KG, but severe storm and heavy rainfall potential
could tick a little higher on Tuesday, especially over interior
areas where MLCAPE values could increase over 3000-4000 J/KG in
the vicinity of the boundary. Hot temperatures will persist into
early next week with highs ranging in the mid to upper 90s and
maximum heat indices between 105-110 degrees over the entire area
Monday, and over the southern half of our region (south of the
boundary) by Tuesday. /21

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

Very little change was made to the extended forecast period.
Scattered storms will remain possible each day as periodic
shortwave impulses in westerly to northwesterly flow move across
the region. Rich deep layer moisture and moderate to strong
instability will likely support a few strong to severe storm cells
with locally heavy rainfall each day. Temperatures will remain hot
in the mid to upper 90s each day with maximum heat indices of
102-107 degrees Wednesday and Thursday potentially trending a
little higher back to near or within Heat Advisory thresholds by
Friday and Saturday. /21

MARINE...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

No hazards are expected as a light diurnal flow to slight
westerly flow will persist through Wednesday. Isolated to Scattered
showers and storms may be possible along the near coastal waters
during the late afternoons. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  97  78  98  79  97  77  94 /  20  30  20  20  10  50  30  40
Pensacola   78  96  80  96  81  96  78  94 /  30  40  20  20  10  50  30  50
Destin      80  93  82  93  83  94  80  93 /  30  60  30  30  10  50  30  50
Evergreen   74  97  75  98  76  96  72  95 /  20  60  30  30  20  60  40  50
Waynesboro  75  98  76  98  75  94  73  95 /  40  30  20  20  20  50  20  40
Camden      74  95  75  96  74  90  71  91 /  30  60  20  30  20  50  30  50
Crestview   73  97  75  98  76  97  72  96 /  20  60  30  30  10  60  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
609 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

ALZ056-060-060000-
Conecuh AL-Covington AL-
609 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH AND WEST
CENTRAL COVINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 608 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Red Level, or 13 miles west of Andalusia, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Conecuh and west central Covington Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3122 8649 3113 8670 3119 8670 3119 8672
      3118 8672 3119 8673 3125 8677 3126 8677
      3126 8678 3135 8683 3141 8667
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 329DEG 11KT 3132 8670

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

cb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
646 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SSW Eglin Afb         30.43N 86.56W
08/05/2023  M40 MPH          GMZ635             FL   Mesonet

            Lorraine North Shore Tempest mesonet station
            gusted to 40mph.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
657 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

ALZ261-263-060045-
Mobile Central AL-Mobile Inland AL-
657 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY
THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 657 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northeast of Semmes, or 8 miles west of Saraland, moving south
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Prichard, Chickasaw, Chunchula, Semmes, I65 And I165,
I65 And AL 158, and Mobile Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8837 3095 8818 3071 8802 3063 8832
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 338DEG 10KT 3084 8821

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

cb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
722 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

ALZ261-MSZ076-079-060100-
Mobile Inland AL-Greene MS-George MS-
722 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...
NORTHEASTERN GEORGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM
CDT...

At 721 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 6 miles northeast of Lucedale. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gulfcrest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 8859 3098 8817 3082 8838 3099 8866
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 320DEG 3KT 3097 8850

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

cb

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