Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Mobile, AL

963 
WWUS54 KMOB 252222
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
522 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

ALC003-FLC033-252245-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0262.000000T0000Z-230625T2245Z/
Baldwin AL-Escambia FL-
522 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BALDWIN AND WEST CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES...

At 522 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles west of
Gonzalez, and is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of east
central Baldwin and west central Escambia Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3076 8757 3077 8743 3050 8732 3049 8755
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 034DEG 3KT 3060 8747 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JEH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
420 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

The overall timing of convection remains difficult, but the most
likely setup would be some isolated to low-end scattered storms
later this evening across the interior portions of southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama if the convection well to our the
north works it's way southward. But right now this looks doubtful
with the loss of surface heating. Otherwise, we will have to wait it
out for a line of storms expected to develop this evening over
Arkansas and western Tennessee that will drop south-southeastward,
and eventually pass through the forecast area late tonight through
Monday morning.

There looks to be a short-lived reprieve late Monday morning, but
surface heating should again result in at least scattered afternoon
thunderstorms to redevelop. The atmosphere will remain quite
unstable overnight into Monday with MLCAPE values around 1500-2500
J/KG. By early Monday afternoon, MLCAPE values could be as high as
3000-4000 J/KG due to surface heating. 0-6 km bulk shear values
remain steady in the 20-35 kt range. Needless to say, the
environment will remain favorable for organized severe weather with
a cluster of strong to severe storms moving in from the north, and
potentially bowing segments sweeping over our CWA late tonight into
Monday. A Slight (2 of 5) risk has been outlined over out area along
and north of I-65 for tonight.

Hot and humid conditions will prevail outside of storm development
on Monday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints well in the
70s will result in maximum heat indices between 107-111 degrees over
southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, where another Heat
Advisory will be required. Heat Indices in the 105-106 degree range
are expected elsewhere. /22

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

A deep ridge over the south central states will build east
through the period, pushing an upper trough along the East Coast
out into the Atlantic. The local area remains wedged in between
these features in a northwesterly to northerly flow aloft through
the period. Some of the guidance suggests subtle shortwaves
moving within that flow and potentially sliding into our region
late Tuesday night and perhaps another one by Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a surface high remains over the
Gulf through this timeframe as a boundary drops south into our
area. Some of the guidance indicates that slightly drier air makes
its way into south-central Alabama on Tuesday afternoon as the
boundary stalls over the region, but overall moisture across the
area should remain abundant. Scattered storms will fire up along
the surface boundary in the afternoon hours on Tuesday and likely
linger into the evening hours given the incoming subtle shortwave.
Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon given the
combination of the lingering boundary, ample instability and
moisture, steep lapse rates, and mid-level dry air. Wet
microbursts will be a concern with gusty winds and lightning being
the predominant threats in the afternoon hours. Storms will also
be possible on Wednesday with the potential for another MCS given
the northwesterly flow aloft and weak impulse moving within.

Heat will remain a concern in the short term despite the potential
for storms. High temperatures are expected to climb into the mid
and upper 90s for most inland areas with lower 90s near the coast
both Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat Advisory criteria will likely be
met across much of the area with heat indices in the 107°-112°F
range. The only locations that might escape an Advisory are the
counties in far south- central Alabama as the dry air may keep
heat indices closer to 100°. There are a few spots across
southeast Mississippi that may get close to or exceed Excessive
Heat Warning criteria given its closer proximity to the upper
ridge. /07/14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Upper level ridging centered over eastern Texas and parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley will build further into the area on
Thursday and Friday. This upper ridge will keep rain chances
suppressed towards the end of this week. It is possible that we
could see some storms over eastern parts of the area on Friday,
but that will largely depend on the timing and evolution of any
shortwaves pivoting within the flow aloft. The main concern in the
long term will be the continuation of very hot and muggy
temperatures as upper ridge takes control. Forecast high
temperatures late in the week are expected to range from the upper
90s to 103°F with dew points in the 70s. These hot and humid
conditions will result in heat index values soaring into the 106°+
area-wide for Thursday and Friday with some locations reaching up
toward 115°-119°F on Friday. Overnight lows won't provide much
relief either with temperatures dropping only into the 70s. As we
head into the weekend, the upper ridging overhead begins to
flatten out as an upper trough moves into the Midwest. Rain
chances begin to increase over the weekend with temperatures
topping out in the 94-101°F range.

Overall, dangerous heat stress conditions are expected towards the
end of the week and into the weekend. This could be a longer duration
period with high-end Heat Advisories and possibly Excessive Heat
Warnings across much, if not all, of the area. /14

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Scattered storms will move from north to south across the
area Monday morning, and a few will likely be strong to severe with
strong winds. otherwise, no impacts expected as a light to
occasional moderate southwesterly to westerly flow persists
throughout the week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
then possible through much of the week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  95  76  96  77  95  75  98 /  20  40  20  40  20  30   0  10
Pensacola   76  92  79  94  79  93  77  95 /  20  40  20  30  10  30   0  10
Destin      78  90  79  92  80  93  78  94 /  20  40  20  30  10  30   0  10
Evergreen   71  93  73  96  74  96  71 100 /  40  50  30  30  20  30   0  10
Waynesboro  73  94  74  96  75  95  74 100 /  50  50  30  30  20  20   0  10
Camden      71  92  72  94  73  94  72  98 /  50  50  30  30  20  20   0  10
Crestview   71  95  74  96  75  98  71 100 /  20  50  20  40  10  30   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-261-263-
     265.

FL...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
334 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

FLZ203>205-252115-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
334 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Okaloosa and east central Santa Rosa Counties through 415 PM CDT...

At 333 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Milton, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Milton, Bagdad, Point Baker, Pea Ridge and Roeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 8713 3076 8710 3075 8669 3048 8672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 275DEG 13KT 3065 8702

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

/16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
411 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

ALZ264-266-FLZ201-202-252200-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Escambia Inland FL-
Escambia Coastal FL-
411 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Baldwin
and south central Escambia Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 8 miles west of Gonzalez, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brent, Ensley, Gonzalez and Goulding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3045 8749 3063 8751 3069 8727 3064 8726
      3064 8724 3063 8726 3063 8724 3061 8726
      3059 8723 3043 8722
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 265DEG 6KT 3055 8743

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

/16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
452 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

ALZ264-266-FLZ201-202-252230-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Escambia Inland FL-
Escambia Coastal FL-
452 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Baldwin
and central Escambia Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 9 miles west of Gonzalez, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brent, Ensley and Lillian.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3040 8748 3071 8755 3075 8739 3045 8722
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 356DEG 6KT 3056 8744

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JEH