Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
648 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will increase at area terminals later
this evening as showers and thunderstorms move into from the
north. Reductions in ceilings and visbys can be expected in and
around showers and thunderstorms through the period. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

The forecast area has been in a lull between this morning's very
severe squall line and another expected round of storms that will
move in from the northwest this evening. We have just recently
starting seeing some new convective development over portions of
interior southeast MS, and the NAM 3KM (which for now seems to be
the High-Res Model that has the best handle for the near term),
indicates that this activity will become more widespread this early
this evening before being enhanced by a developing system now over
AR and northern MS drops south and east across our forecast area
(particularly over the western half of the forecast area) through
around 3 AM Saturday. Then another brief break late tonight before
another round of active weather drops south across our area during
the day on Saturday (approx in the 9am-5pm time range).

The overall large scale pattern remains unchanged, and each of the
additional rounds of storms will also have the potential to be
severe, with damaging winds and large hail again being the primary
threat, but as has been the case an isolated tornado or two will not
be out of the question.

The airmass is recovering over the area in the wake of this mornings
convection, with dewpoints now back into the low to mid 70s across
the region and sufficient shear continues across the area. So the
environment is once again improving with regard for the potential
for the developing storms this evening of being severe.

As far as Saturday goes, a complex forecast continues. Developing or
ongoing convection is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast states through much of the day. Storms will again be running
along a remnant, nearly stationary surface front lying northwest-to-
southeast across the region. Diurnal heating and destabilization of
the moist boundary layer will support additional/widespread
convective development on Saturday, which will be aided by the
southeastward advance of mid-level short-wave trough that will be
moving into the Southeast states. A favorable environment combined
with moderately strong deep-layer flow (40 to 60 kt in the 850 to
500 mb layer) will spread across the region in conjunction with the
aforementioned mid-level trough, suggesting a risk for hail and
damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two across this area
through much of the day on Saturday.

In addition to the severe threat, with the storms continuing to
repeatedly move across the same areas that have already been
saturated by days of off and on heavy rainfall, the risk of extreme
flash flooding will continue. Flooding potential will be especially
enhanced from southern Baldwin county eastward across the western FL
panhandle counties of Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties.
Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, locally up to at least
6 inches could be possible in some areas, which will exacerbate any
ongoing flooding issues. A Flash Flood Watch continues for all of
our forecast area (now extended until 7 PM Saturday) except for a
portions of southeast MS (where so far heavier rainfall has not
occurred and soil is not quite as saturated, but could receive
future heavy rainfall which may require those areas to be included
in the Watch as well).

Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s over much of the interior
counties to the low to mid 70s down toward and along the coast.
Highs on Saturday in the mid and upper 80s with a few lower 90s
possible. /12

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

An ongoing convective complex is progged to be settling southeast of
the I-65 corridor Saturday night and over the marine area. The
forecast area remains under an anomalously, persistent active
northwest flow aloft between a deep layer ridge over the western
Gulf and an upper trough over the southeast US. The next in a series
of upper level level impulses look to be bringing another region of
enhanced ascent southeast across southern MS and across southern AL
and the western Florida panhandle during the day Sunday. The
environment remains very moist and unstable favoring the potential
of severe weather Sunday with the Storm Prediction Center calling
for a slight risk of severe. 0-6 km bulk-shear magnitudes in excess
of 40 kts and steep mid-level lapse rates support damaging straight
line winds and large hail. Forecasters cannot rule a tornado threat
Sunday. Another continued concern is locally heavy rains which will
likely lead to run-off and flooding problems. This especially in
areas that have recently received excessive rainfall. Unfortunately,
the pattern driving Sunday's weather will continue to remain in
place with the likelihood of seeing yet another convective complex
rolling southeast through the area Monday. /10

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

16.12Z weather models suggest that an upper low begins to form
over the TN River Valley Tuesday which drops southward across AL
by Wednesday. After that time, spread evolves in solutions. Most
notably, the GFS takes its cutoff upper low westward across LA by
the end of the week and the ECMWF pivots its solution of the upper
low more east across the southeast. The GFS solution would be the
wettest of the two solutions with the westward translation of
upper low bringing deep moisture/lift spreading northward off the
Gulf. The ECMWF appears to be drier. The North American Ensembles
seem to suggest an answer that lies in between which is being
leaned toward on this package. This would favor a continuation in
an unsettled weather pattern through the week. /10

MARINE...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Moderate to occasionally strong southwest to west flow will
continue through Saturday, then weaken slightly Sunday into the
early part of next week. Hazardous conditions to small craft
should be expected near periodic thunderstorms through the
weekend, some producing very strong wind gusts and locally much
higher seas. /12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  91  72  90  74  91  71  90 /  60  60  30  60  70  80  60  70
Pensacola   73  87  75  88  77  88  76  88 /  60  70  40  60  70  90  70  80
Destin      76  87  75  88  78  88  77  88 /  60  80  40  50  70  80  70  70
Evergreen   68  88  68  90  70  86  69  88 /  70  60  30  60  70  90  60  70
Waynesboro  68  87  69  90  70  89  68  88 /  70  50  30  60  70  80  40  60
Camden      66  85  66  87  69  86  67  86 /  70  70  20  60  70  80  50  60
Crestview   68  89  68  91  71  89  70  91 /  60  80  30  60  70  90  60  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for MSZ067.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
726 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Grove Hill          31.69N 87.78W
06/16/2023                   Clarke             AL   Emergency Mngr

            EMA reports windows blown out of a building
            due to wind driven hail. Time using radar.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
727 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     Hail             1 S Grove Hill          31.69N 87.78W
06/16/2023  M2.00 inch       Clarke             AL   Emergency Mngr

            EMA reports hen egg size hail in grove hill.
            Time using radar.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
731 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     Hail             1 S Grove Hill          31.69N 87.78W
06/16/2023  M2.00 inch       Clarke             AL   Emergency Mngr

            EMA reports hen egg size hail in grove hill.
            Time using radar.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
732 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Grove Hill          31.69N 87.78W
06/16/2023                   Clarke             AL   Emergency Mngr

            EMA reports windows blown out of a building
            due to wind driven hail. Time using radar.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
739 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNE Brewton           31.13N 87.06W
06/16/2023                   Escambia           AL   Public

            Social media picture showing large tree fell
            on a church on Sowell Rd in Brewton AL. Time
            using radar.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
810 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     Hail             Camden                  31.99N 87.29W
06/16/2023  E1.25 inch       Wilcox             AL   Public

            Social media picture of quarter to half
            dollar size hail in Camden. Time using
            radar.

&&

JEH