River Flood Warning 19, NWS Mobile, AL

016 
WGUS84 KMOB 271539
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1039 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Monroe, Wilcox and 
  Clarke Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC025-099-131-281545-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.230330T0200Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.230330T0200Z.230401T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1039 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening until further notice.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM CDT Monday the stage was 29.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Wednesday evening and continue rising to 47.6 feet
    Saturday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 42.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
      3114 8797 3150 8766


$$

095 
WGUS84 KMOB 280156
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
856 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Wilcox, Monroe and 
  Clarke Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC025-099-131-290200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.230329T0810Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.230329T0810Z.230401T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
856 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 43.0 feet, Access to Eureka Landing community stops, 
  with access cut off.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:45 PM CDT Monday the stage was 36.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Wednesday morning and continue rising to a crest of
    47.4 feet early Saturday morning.
  - Flood stage is 42.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
      3114 8797 3150 8766


$$

447 
WGUS84 KMOB 281511
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1011 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Clarke, Monroe and 
  Wilcox Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC025-099-131-291515-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.230329T0640Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.230329T0640Z.230401T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam.

* WHEN...From late tonight until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 42.0 feet, Water begins to inundate the Eureka 
  Landing community. At 43.0 feet, Access to Eureka Landing 
  community stops, with access cut off.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 39.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to continue to rise, rising
    to above flood stage late tonight. The river is then forecast
    to crest at a stage of 46.9 feet Friday evening.
  - Flood stage is 42.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
      3114 8797 3150 8766


$$

CGAL

627 
WGUS84 KMOB 291531
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1031 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Clarke, Wilcox and 
  Monroe Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC025-099-131-301545-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230402T1649Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.230329T0645Z.230331T1800Z.230402T1048Z.NO/
1031 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam.

* WHEN...Until Sunday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 42.8 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:45 AM CDT Wednesday was 42.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 46.0
    feet early Friday afternoon. It will then fall below flood
    stage early Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 42.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
      3114 8797 3150 8766


$$

447 
WGUS84 KMOB 300135
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
835 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Monroe, Clarke and 
  Wilcox Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC025-099-131-310145-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230402T0703Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.230329T0645Z.230331T1800Z.230402T0103Z.NO/
835 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam.

* WHEN...Until late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...At 43.0 feet, Access to Eureka Landing community stops, 
  with access cut off.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 43.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 45.7
    feet early Friday afternoon. It will then fall below flood
    stage Saturday evening.
  - Flood stage is 42.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
      3114 8797 3150 8766


$$

563 
WGUS84 KMOB 301455
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
955 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Monroe, Clarke and 
  Wilcox Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC025-099-131-311500-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230402T1700Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.230329T0645Z.230331T1800Z.230402T1100Z.NO/
955 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam.

* WHEN...Until Sunday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:45 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 44.5 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:45 AM CDT Thursday was 44.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 45.4
    feet early tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall below flood
    stage Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 42.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
      3114 8797 3150 8766


$$

987 
WGUS84 KMOB 310127
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
827 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Wilcox, Clarke and 
  Monroe Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC025-099-131-010130-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230402T1446Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.230329T0645Z.230331T1200Z.230402T0846Z.NO/
827 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam.

* WHEN...Until Sunday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 45.1 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 7:45 PM CDT Thursday was 45.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 45.3
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 42.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
      3114 8797 3150 8766


$$

JP

650 
WGUS84 KMOB 311519
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1019 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Clarke, Wilcox and 
  Monroe Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC025-099-131-011530-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230402T1000Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.230329T0645Z.230331T1445Z.230402T0508Z.NO/
1019 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam.

* WHEN...Until late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...At 42.0 feet, Water begins to inundate the Eureka 
  Landing community. At 43.0 feet, Access to Eureka Landing 
  community stops, with access cut off.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM CDT Friday the stage was 45.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to continue to fall, falling
    below flood stage by late Saturday night. THe river is then
    forecast to continue falling to a stage of 25.2 feet
    Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 42.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
      3114 8797 3150 8766


$$

CGAL

200 
WGUS84 KMOB 010229
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
929 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in 
Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Monroe, Clarke and 
  Wilcox Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC025-099-131-020230-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230402T1218Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.230329T0645Z.230401T0600Z.230402T0618Z.NO/
929 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam.

* WHEN...Until Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 43.0 feet, access to Eureka Landing community stops, 
  with access cut off.
  At 49.0 feet, recreational areas around the Lock and Dam begin to 
  flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:45 PM CDT Friday the stage was 46.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:45 PM CDT Friday was 46.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 46.1
    feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
    flood stage early Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 42.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
      3114 8797 3150 8766


$$

964 
WGUS84 KMOB 011359
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
859 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Monroe, Wilcox and 
  Clarke Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC025-099-131-021300-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230402T1300Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.230329T0645Z.230401T0800Z.230402T1034Z.NO/
859 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam.

* WHEN...Until Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 42.0 feet, Water begins to inundate the Eureka 
  Landing community. At 43.0 feet, Access to Eureka Landing 
  community stops, with access cut off.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:45 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 45.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to gradually fall through
    the day today, falling below flood stage by early Sunday
    morning. The river is forecast to continue falling to a stage
    of 25.7 feet Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 42.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
      3114 8797 3150 8766


$$

CGAL

853 
WGUS84 KMOB 020130
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
830 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Monroe, Clarke and 
  Wilcox Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC025-099-131-022045-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230402T2045Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.230329T0645Z.230401T2045Z.230402T1445Z.NO/
830 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam.

* WHEN...Until Sunday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 45.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tomorrow morning and continue falling to 30.4 feet
    Thursday evening.
  - Flood stage is 42.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
      3114 8797 3150 8766


$$

JP

926 
WGUS84 KMOB 021337
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
837 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Wilcox, Clarke and 
  Monroe Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC025-099-131-030600-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230403T0600Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.230329T0645Z.230401T2045Z.230403T0000Z.NO/
837 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 40.0 feet, Considerable flooding of agricultural 
  land. 42.0 feet, Water begins to inundate the Eureka Landing 
  community.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 43.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to continue to fall, falling
    below flood stage by late tonight. The river is forecast to
    then continue falling to a stage of 27.3 feet Friday morning.
  - Flood stage is 42.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
      3114 8797 3150 8766


$$

CGAL

260 
WGUS84 KMOB 022242
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
542 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Clarke, Wilcox and 
  Monroe Counties.

ALC025-099-131-022345-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230402T2242Z/
/CLBA1.1.ER.230329T0645Z.230401T2045Z.230403T0000Z.NO/
542 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:45 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 41.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to continue to fall.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
      3114 8797 3150 8766


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
711 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Current observations show mixed MVFR to IFR conditions across a
majority of the region. A line of severe thunderstorms is also
currently oriented from east to west well north of the Highway 84
corridor. This line is expected to very slowly sag southward
through the overnight hours and into Monday morning, with the
severe threat expected to become more marginal as it continues
southward through the overnight hours. This line is expected to
eventually reach TAF sites sometime on Monday morning, however,
confidence in exact timing remains low to moderate (currently
reflecting this potential with PROB30s in TAFs on Monday morning).
Moving into tonight (sometime in the next few hours), expect
ceilings to gradually lower to IFR across the entire region, with
the potential for fog development closer to the coast and
offshore. Visibilities should generally remain VFR for most areas
outside of where convective storms occur and closer to the coast
with any fog development. Trends will be monitored and TAFs will
be amended if needed. Winds will remain a bit elevated around
10-15 knots (gusts up to 25kts) out of the south at TAF sites over
the next couple of hours, with winds somewhat tapering to around
5-10kts and transitioning to more southwesterly through tonight.
JEH/88

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023/

..New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...

Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

A multi-faceted severe weather event continues to be expected
across the region this afternoon into evening...

At present, several strong to severe thunderstorms continue across
the region this afternoon, primarily focused in two areas. The
first being along the 350K Theta-e gradient and high 3CAPE upwards
of 175 to 200j/kg across the FL panhandle into Escambia and
Covington Counties in Alabama. The second region of interest so
far has been along the stationary boundary north of the highway 84
corridor where a more isolated, discrete storm mode has persisted.
As we move forward in time, a shortwave trough will begin to
affect the area serving as our forcing mechanism for scattered
supercells to develop in the vicinity of the 84 corridor and
points north. Large, destructive hail remains the primary hazard
through the afternoon hours owing to small low level curvature in
the updraft, high CAPE of 3,000 to 4,000j/kg, and elongated 1km -
6km hodographs yielding 40 to 50kts of deep layer shear. Isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms to the south continue to pose a
threat for large hail up to golf ball size and damaging wind gusts
to 60mph, this threat should continue to persist through late
afternoon before loss of daytime heating.

As we head into late afternoon and the evening hours, the threat
for tornadoes rapidly increases along and north of the highway 84
corridor. The combination of large 3CAPE values between 100 and
200j/kg, strong surface vorticity pool in the vicinity of the
stationary boundary, and the presence of rich low level buoyancy
demarcated by the 340K Theta-e line and upwards of 350K just to
the south (surface dewpoints in the 70 to 73 range) combined with
enlarging low level hodographs in response to an intensifying
nocturnal low level jet will foster the potential for several
tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF2+). Low level SRH
increases to 200 to 300m2/s2 after sunset, and the expectation is
for discrete supercell thunderstorms to develop along the
aforementioned boundary. These should repeatedly track in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary posing a risk for
strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. The hail risk
should temper somewhat after dark with the enlargement of the low
level hodographs and less favored residence time for hail growth
within storm updrafts. The severe potential will likely linger
into the late evening hours, gradually waning after 9 or 10pm as
surface based instability decreases. MM/25

..NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Active high level southwest flow aloft will continue in place as
we open up the new week. A series of impulses aloft will continue
to slide east northeast bringing enhanced ascent atop a
relatively complex surface pattern with a couple fronts close by.
the first is a boundary over central AL, which will be lifting
northward as a warm front and the second is a cold front sinking
southeast through the Lower MS Valley. Showers and storms
overnight, ahead of and along the front approaching from the
northwest appear to become more concentrated over the northwest
zones through daybreak Monday. The front will then continue to
move southeastward through noon Monday, with indications that the
boundary will begin to stall just north of the coast, providing a
focus for showers and thunderstorms, especially along and
southeast of I-65. Although forecasters cannot entirely rule out
the occurrence of a severe storm, the overall widespread severe
weather threat decreases to marginal Monday.

May see some patchy late night fog tonight, especially closer to
the coast given mild night-time temperatures and moist boundary
layer.

The risk for dangerous to potentially deadly rip currents remains
in place thru Monday night. /10

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Surface front draped near the coast, moves little Monday night
into early Tuesday. Embedded in the west southwest flow, another
in a series of mid-level impulses ejects east northeast in the
west-southwest flow aloft out of east TX Monday night. As this
feature continues east, a wave of surface frontal low pressure
forms over southern LA and brings an increase in ascent and
expanding shower/storm coverage as it moves east over the central
Gulf coast. Latest rainfall forecast shows mostly around an inch,
but some areas could see higher amounts if storms move repeatedly
over the same areas. The upper level energy moves quickly east
out of the local area by late Tuesday afternoon into the evening
bringing an end to the precipitation and drier/cooler air as the
front responds and gets a southward push. Moving into the middle
of the week, the leading edge of a short-wave upper ridge is
progged to be pushing in from the west, which supports a rain-
free pattern Wednesday.

With clouds and precipitation in place, daytime highs Tuesday will
be "coolest" over the interior and several degrees below normal
ranging from the upper half of the 60s interior. Lower half of the
70s southern zones. Highs on Wednesday range from 69 to 74.
Tuesday night, lows drop into the mid 40s up across the US Highway
84 corridor to the lower to mid 50s closer to the coast. Night-
time lows Wednesday night are similar. /10

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Dry conditions are expected for the first half of the extended
term as an upper-level ridge builds over the Deep South and pushes
eastward. Surface high pressure to our north will also shift
eastward into the Western Atlantic. As it does so, winds over our
area will turn southeasterly, allowing for warm, humid conditions
to return to the region. Looking towards the weekend, an upper
trough over the central US quickly ejects northeastward towards
the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley region. This will help to send
another cold front towards our region. Although at this time the
best forcing looks to remain well to our north, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast as
the front approaches and moves through the area Saturday into
Sunday. Temperatures remain above seasonal norms through the
period. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Near-term hazards to the safe navigation of marine craft appears
to be the potential of fog. With a persistent warm, moist light
onshore flow in place, there are modest probabilities in place
for fog formation/maintenance tonight and Monday over bays, sounds
and the near shore waters. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  80  63  72  51  72  50  76 /  40  60  40  80   0  10   0   0
Pensacola   69  79  65  73  53  72  54  75 /  20  50  30  80   0  10   0   0
Destin      69  77  67  74  56  73  57  75 /  10  50  30  70  10  10   0   0
Evergreen   66  80  59  71  46  73  46  79 /  60  60  40  80   0  10   0   0
Waynesboro  64  80  57  70  46  70  47  78 /  80  40  40  60   0   0   0   0
Camden      63  78  56  69  45  69  44  78 /  90  50  40  60   0   0   0   0
Crestview   68  82  62  76  49  75  47  79 /  20  60  30  80   0  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
715 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW RURAL             31.84N 87.75W
03/26/2023                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS BILLBOARD SIGNS
            AND TRAFFIC SIGNALS DOWN AT HIGHWAY 43 AND
            NORTH CLARK INDUSTRIAL ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
724 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW RURAL             31.83N 87.76W
03/26/2023                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS MULTIPLE TREES
            DOWN, MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO A MOBILE
            HOME, AND SMALL DEBRIS IN THE GENERAL
            VICINITY OF SANDFLAT ROAD AND LONDON ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
849 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW RURAL             31.84N 87.76W
03/26/2023                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A BARN AND LARGE PORTABLE STORAGE BUILDING
            DESTROYED ON KELLY ROAD. A HOME HAD MINOR
            DAMAGE JUST TO THE WEST ON SANDFLAT RD.

&&

JFB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
855 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             3 E CAMDEN              31.99N 87.24W
03/26/2023  E1.00 INCH       WILCOX             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON HIGHWAY 10, EAST OF THE
            HIGHWAY 41 INTERCHANGE. POWER FLASHES ALSO
            REPORTED IN THE AREA.

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW ESTELLE            31.98N 87.21W
03/26/2023                   WILCOX             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES BLOCKING HIGHWAY 10, ONE MILE EAST OF
            HWY 28 SPLIT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
905 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E RIDERWOOD           32.13N 88.32W
03/26/2023                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN ON RIDERWOOD DR AT SCOTT
            MOUNTAIN RD.

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUTLER                  32.09N 88.22W
03/26/2023                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EMA REPORTS MULTIPLE TREES DOWN
            ACROSS CHOCTAW COUNTY WITH ROADS BLOCKED.
            WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGE REPORTED IN BUTLER.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
911 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

ALZ051-MSZ067-270300-
Choctaw AL-Wayne MS-
911 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Choctaw
and northern Wayne Counties through 1000 PM CDT...

At 910 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 9 miles south of Goodwater, or 13 miles northwest
of Waynesboro, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Silas and Gilbertown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern
Mississippi. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 100 AM CDT
for southwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3182 8894 3185 8865 3189 8848 3190 8847
      3191 8828 3184 8824 3176 8824 3170 8826
      3170 8846 3168 8846 3168 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 268DEG 40KT 3178 8884

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Black