River Flood Warning 15, NWS Mobile, AL

372 
WGUS84 KMOB 181509
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
909 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas, Wilcox and 
  Monroe Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC047-099-131-191515-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.230219T1732Z-230222T0230Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.230219T1732Z.230221T0000Z.230221T2030Z.NO/
909 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning to Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 66.0 feet, farm and pasturelands in the area will 
  flood and cattle should be moved to higher ground.
  At 68.0 feet, Millers Ferry Park begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CST Saturday the stage was 58.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late tomorrow morning to a crest of 67.4 feet Monday evening.
    It will then fall below flood stage early Tuesday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 66.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
      3184 8756 3215 8749


$$

057 
WGUS84 KMOB 190146
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
746 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas, Monroe and 
  Wilcox Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC047-099-131-200200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.230220T1200Z-230221T0800Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.230220T1200Z.230221T0000Z.230221T0200Z.NO/
746 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING TO LATE MONDAY 
NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam.

* WHEN...From Monday morning to late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...At 68.0 feet, Millers Ferry Park begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:00 PM CST Saturday the stage was 59.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Monday morning to a crest of 66.2 feet Monday evening. It
    will then fall below flood stage later Monday night.
  - Flood stage is 66.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
      3184 8756 3215 8749


$$

456 
WGUS84 KMOB 191531
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
931 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Wilcox, Monroe and 
  Dallas Counties.

For the Alabama River...including Millers Ferry Dam, Claiborne Dam...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.

&&


ALC047-099-131-201545-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.230220T1630Z-230221T0600Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.230220T1630Z.230220T1800Z.230221T0000Z.NO/
931 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING TO LATE MONDAY 
NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam.

* WHEN...From Monday morning to late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...At 66.0 feet, Farm and pasturelands in the area will 
  flood and cattle should be moved to higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CST Sunday the stage was 61.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Monday morning, then to a crest of 66.1 feet early
    Monday afternoon. It is then forecast to quickly fall below
    flood stage Monday evening.
  - Flood stage is 66.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
      3184 8756 3215 8749


$$

CGAL

215 
WGUS84 KMOB 200157
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
757 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Monroe, Dallas and 
  Wilcox Counties.

ALC047-099-131-200300-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0015.230220T1630Z-230220T0157Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
757 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CST Sunday the stage was 61.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 62.8
    feet early tomorrow afternoon.


&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
      3184 8756 3215 8749


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
453 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Northerly winds
10 to 20 knots diminish to 5 to 10 knots overnight then become
northeasterly on Saturday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023

High clouds will continue to stream over the area this afternoon as
the upper trough moves across the region. Drier and much colder
air will continue to filter into the area through tonight as sfc
high pressure builds in from the west. Dry and cool conditions
continue through Saturday as as high pressure builds over the
area. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s and low 30s inland to
mid/upper 30s along the coast. Saturday will feature clear skies
with highs in the mid and upper 50s. /13

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023

Zonal upper flow over the Southeast remains on the north side of
a building upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, directing
shortwave energy well north of the forecast area into the coming
week. A surface ridge stretching south along the Appalachians
splits, leaving a weak surface ridge over the Gulf of Mexico by
Monday. This shifting of the surface ridge weakens southerly low
level flow over the forecast area. An initial moisture return off
the Gulf Saturday night into Sunday weakens as a result. Guidance
is hinting at enough moisture returning for fog development Sunday
and Monday nights. With a more steady southwesterly flow Monday
night over cool Mississippi and Alabama coastal and protected
waters, sea fog formation is possible beginning Monday night. Will
need to monitor. The building upper ridge over the Gulf and
modest moisture return will allow temperatures to quickly rebound
back to above seasonal norms by the beginning of the week. Low
temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40 Saturday night rise into
the around 60 to low 60s range Monday night. High temperatures in
the mid to upper 60s Sunday rise into the mid to upper 70s for
Monday. /16

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023

A closed upper low that has organized off Baja California shifts
east to over Texas, becoming an open wave as it takes a
northeasterly tract on the west side of an upper ridge building
north over the East Coast from the Gulf high pressure, which has
shifted to over the Caribbean. Surface high pressure over the Gulf
shifts east to become centered over the Tropical Atlantic,
leaving a surface ridge stretching west over the Gulf of Mexico in
its wake. The path of the upper low and its organization remain
inconsistent in the guidance as it heads northeast, though has
been showing a weakening/more northerly track trend as it passes
well northwest of the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Guidance is consistent in advertising better rain chances
remaining north of the forecast area and a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms north of Highway 84 for the forecast
area Wednesday on. Temperatures well above seasonal norms
continue, though a weak cold front sagging south towards the
forecast area end of the week may change this if it sags south
over the forecast area. With southerly flow over area waters and
the forecast area, sea fog may continue to be an issued in the
coming week.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023

A strong northerly flow will persist through tonight
in the wake of a strong cold front. The offshore flow gradually
subsides late tonight and Saturday, then shifts to a light to
moderate southwesterly flow early next week. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      33  58  39  66  50  75  61  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   36  58  45  66  52  73  63  75 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      37  58  48  66  56  73  64  75 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   30  58  36  67  45  77  59  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  29  55  35  64  47  75  60  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      28  56  34  64  45  75  59  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Crestview   32  59  37  70  47  78  59  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob