Gale Warning 12, NWS Mobile, AL

808 
WHUS74 KMOB 241534
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
934 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

GMZ634>636-250100-
/O.NEW.KMOB.SC.Y.0065.231224T2100Z-231225T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMOB.GL.W.0012.231225T0000Z-231225T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0063.231225T1200Z-231225T1800Z/
Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
934 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the first Small Craft Advisory, east winds 15 to 20
  kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 1 to 2 ft expected. For the
  Gale Warning, southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt
  and waves up to 3 ft expected. For the second Small Craft
  Advisory, southeast winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and
  waves 1 to 2 ft expected.

* WHERE...Pensacola Bay System, Western Choctawhatchee Bay and 
  Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay.

* WHEN...For the first Small Craft Advisory, from 3 PM this 
  afternoon to 6 PM CST this evening. For the Gale Warning, from 
  6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday. For the second Small 
  Craft Advisory, from 6 AM to noon CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ630>633-250100-
/O.EXB.KMOB.SC.Y.0063.231224T2100Z-231225T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMOB.GL.W.0012.231225T0000Z-231225T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.SC.Y.0066.231225T0600Z-231225T1200Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-
934 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
CST TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the first Small Craft Advisory, east winds 15 to 20
  kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 1 to 3 ft expected. For the
  Gale Warning, southeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt
  and waves 2 to 3 ft expected. For the second Small Craft
  Advisory, southeast winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and
  waves 1 to 3 ft expected.

* WHERE...Northern Mobile Bay, Southern Mobile Bay, Mississippi 
  Sound and Perdido Bay.

* WHEN...For the first Small Craft Advisory, from 3 PM this 
  afternoon to 6 PM CST this evening. For the Gale Warning, from 
  6 PM this evening to midnight CST tonight. For the second 
  Small Craft Advisory, from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ650-670-250100-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-231224T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KMOB.GL.W.0012.231224T2100Z-231225T0900Z/
/O.EXT.KMOB.SC.Y.0064.231225T0900Z-231225T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
934 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
CST MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the first Small Craft Advisory, southeast winds 20 to
  25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 5 to 8 ft. For the Gale
  Warning, southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and
  seas 6 to 11 ft expected. For the second Small Craft Advisory,
  southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 6 
  to 11 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 
  20 NM and Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 
  60 NM.

* WHEN...For the first Small Craft Advisory, until 3 PM CST this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 
  AM CST Monday. For the second Small Craft Advisory, from 3 AM 
  to 3 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ655-675-250100-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-231224T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0012.231224T2100Z-231225T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0064.231225T1200Z-231225T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
934 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM CST MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the first Small Craft Advisory, east winds 20 to 25
  kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 5 to 7 ft. For the Gale
  Warning, southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and
  seas 6 to 11 ft expected. For the second Small Craft Advisory,
  south winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 7 to 10
  ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to 
  Pensacola FL out 20 NM and Waters from Okaloosa Walton County 
  Line FL to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...For the first Small Craft Advisory, until 3 PM CST this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 
  AM CST Monday. For the second Small Craft Advisory, from 6 AM 
  to 3 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

236 
WHUS74 KMOB 250058
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
658 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

GMZ630>633-250900-
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-231225T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0066.231225T0600Z-231225T1200Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-
658 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southeast winds 20 to 25 kt with
  gusts up to 35 kt and seas 2 to 3 ft. For the Small Craft
  Advisory, southeast winds 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas
  1 to 3 ft expected.

* WHERE...Northern Mobile Bay, Southern Mobile Bay, Mississippi 
  Sound and Perdido Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until midnight CST tonight. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST 
  Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ650-670-250900-
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-231225T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0064.231225T0900Z-231225T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
658 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 8 to 12 ft. For the Small Craft
  Advisory, southwest winds 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas
  6 to 11 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 
  20 NM and Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 
  60 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 3 AM CST Monday. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ634>636-250900-
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-231225T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0063.231225T1200Z-231225T1800Z/
Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
658 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southeast winds 20 to 25 kt with
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 2 to 3 ft. For the Small Craft
  Advisory, southeast winds 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas
  1 to 2 ft expected.

* WHERE...Pensacola Bay System, Western Choctawhatchee Bay and 
  Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 6 AM CST Monday. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, from 6 AM to noon CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ655-675-250900-
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-231225T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0064.231225T1200Z-231225T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
658 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 7 to 11 ft. For the Small Craft
  Advisory, south winds 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 7 
  to 11 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to 
  Pensacola FL out 20 NM and Waters from Okaloosa Walton County 
  Line FL to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 6 AM CST Monday. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

187 
WHUS74 KMOB 250856
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023

GMZ650-670-251700-
/O.EXP.KMOB.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-231225T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0064.231225T0900Z-231225T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 6 to 11 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 
  20 NM and Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 
  60 NM.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ634>636-251700-
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-231225T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0063.231225T1200Z-231225T1800Z/
Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
TO NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southeast winds 20 to 25 kt with 
  gusts up to 35 kt and seas 1 to 3 ft. For the Small Craft 
  Advisory, southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  and seas 1 to 2 ft expected.

* WHERE...Pensacola Bay System, Western Choctawhatchee Bay and 
  Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 6 AM CST early this 
  morning. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 6 AM this morning 
  to noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ655-675-251700-
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-231225T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0064.231225T1200Z-231225T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
TO 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southeast winds 25 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 9 to 11 ft. For the Small Craft 
  Advisory, south winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 7 to 11 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to 
  Pensacola FL out 20 NM and Waters from Okaloosa Walton County 
  Line FL to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 6 AM CST early this 
  morning. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 6 AM this morning 
  to 3 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ630>633-251200-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-231225T1200Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-
256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 
  1 to 3 ft.

* WHERE...Northern Mobile Bay, Southern Mobile Bay, Mississippi 
  Sound and Perdido Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

683 
WHUS74 KMOB 251152
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mobile AL
552 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023

GMZ634>636-251800-
/O.EXP.KMOB.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-231225T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0063.231225T1200Z-231225T1800Z/
Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
552 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 
  up to 3 ft expected.

* WHERE...Pensacola Bay System, Western Choctawhatchee Bay and 
  Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ655-675-252000-
/O.EXP.KMOB.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-231225T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0064.231225T1200Z-231225T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
552 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 6 to 11 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to 
  Pensacola FL out 20 NM and Waters from Okaloosa Walton County 
  Line FL to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ630>633-251300-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-231225T1200Z/
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-
552 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Winds have subsided below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

$$

GMZ650-670-252000-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-231225T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
552 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 kt and seas 7 to 10 ft.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 
  20 NM and Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 
  60 NM.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1053 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 547 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/

..New AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue to prevail for now with the expectation
for MVFR ceilings to settle in by mid morning Sunday as isolated
to scattered showers begin moving into the forecast area. Likewise
anticipate an increase in sustained winds and gusts by mid
morning with winds around 15kts gusting to 20kts by mid morning,
increasing to sustained 20kts gusting to 25 to 30kts by late
afternoon and early evening, further increasing into late evening.
Rain showers increase in coverage and intensity by late afternoon
into early evening which should result in visibility reductions
to MVFR category and ceiling reductions to IFR and perhaps locally
LIFR category. There is some indications of low level wind shear
issues, primarily over interior portions of southeastern
Mississippi into interior southwestern Alabama of around 40kts out
of the southeast at FL020 as we head into Sunday evening. MM/25

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023

VFR conditions prevail for the time being, however that will
change as we move through the day on Sunday. Expect MVFR ceilings
to settle in by mid morning Sunday as isolated to scattered
showers begin moving into the forecast area. Likewise anticipate
an increase in sustained winds and gusts by mid morning with winds
around 15kts gusting to 20kts by mid morning, increasing to
sustained 20kts gusting to 25 to 30kts by late afternoon and early
evening. Rain showers increase in coverage and intensity by late
afternoon into early evening which should result in visibility
reductions to MVFR category and ceiling reductions to IFR
category. There is some indications of low level wind shear
issues, primarily over interior portions of southeastern
Mississippi into interior southwestern Alabama of around 40kts out
of the southeast at FL020 as we head into Sunday evening. MM/25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/

.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 406 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023

A large upper cutoff low will evolve over the central US Sunday night
into Monday, with a potent negatively tilted shortwave ejects over
the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night. This will allow for deep
southwesterly flow to develop Sunday through Monday as PWATS climb
to around 1.5 inches. Given rather impressive divergence aloft,
fairly good synoptic ascent will overspread the area leading to
roughly a 24 hour period of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall.
A warm front will surge northward across the gulf Sunday night and
approach the coast as a surface low forms west of the Mississippi
River. This front will likely provide the focus for heavier rainfall
but will stay just offshore keeping the better surface based
instability away from the coast and limiting thunderstorm potential.
The rain will then begin to taper off from west to east throughout
the day Monday. Temperatures will be mild with lows Sunday night
climbing into the mid 50s inland to low 60s along the coast. Highs
on Monday will approach 70 degrees.

Heavy Rainfall Impacts...While this setup is a good one for rain
given the plentiful synoptic support and deep moisture, this setup
does not scream flooding potential. PWATS are certainly there as
they will approach 1.5 to 1.75 inches along the coast, but with the
combination of continued dry conditions (still in a drought) and
lack of appreciable rain the last two weeks it will be tough to
overcome flash flood guidance. Based off of our flash flood guidance
we would need to see 2 to 4 inches in an hour and 3 to 6 inches in 3
hours to begin flooding given our soil conditions. The current
forecast is for roughly 1 to 3 inches spread out across roughly a 24
hour period. That is probably not going to do much but create a few
mud puddles and help chip away at our rainfall deficit. WPC has
retained a Marginal Risk in excessive rainfall outlook for most
of the forecast area.

Wind Impacts...Winds will be gusty overnight Sunday night as a
rather strong low level jet increases during the evening and the
surface low deepens leading to a rather tight gradient across the
area. This will allow for winds to get gusty for a time with
frequent gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range Sunday night. This will be
just below wind advisory criteria but things could get a little
blustery and folks may want to consider securing loose outdoor items
or we might have a few inflatable Santa's thinking they are actually
flying.

Beach/Coastal Impacts...As with most coastal systems we will likely
experience the usual gambit of coastal hazards throughout the
period. Increasing southerly flow over the Gulf waters will allow
for wave heights to quickly increase. As wave heights increase with
the southerly fetch, surf heights will climb leading to increased
threats of life threatening Rip Currents and large waves. Surf
heights look to climb to 6 to 8 feet with the potentially to
increase to up to 9 feet depending on how strong the winds get
offshore Sunday night. Confidence is not quite all there to warrant
a High surf warning; however, a high end high Surf Advisory
conditions are likely.

The final coastal hazard in question is the potential for coastal
flooding. As winds increase significantly Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night, this should lead to some minor coastal flooding.
Current PETSS guidance has a 50th percentile of around 1.6 to 1.7
feet mean high high water (MHHW) and reasonable worst case or 10
percentile of around 2.1 feet MHHW in Mobile bay. We usually start
to see flooding of the Mobile Bay Causeway around 1.7. Therefore, we
have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory during this time frame to
include the entire coastline, especially considering the large
breaking waves on top of a high tide likely leading to wave runup
and overwash along flood prone barrier islands of the Florida
Panhandle and coastal Alabama. BB/03 /22

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 406 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023

A small chance of rain is possible over eastern-most portions of the
forecast area Monday evening as a post system cold front moves east
of the forecast area. Northwesterly post frontal flow moves a drier
and cooler airmass over the region in the wake of the front. A
series of reinforcing cold fronts move over the region through the
rest of the week in the wake of a series of passing shortwaves
maintaining the cool, dry northerly flow. The forecast remains dry
through the week. Temperatures quickly drop to well below
seasonal norms under the northerly flow. High temperatures in the
upper 50s northwest of I-65 to mid 60s well southeast Tuesday drop
into the low 50s north of Highway 84 to upper 50s near the coast on
Saturday. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s well northwest of
I-65 to mid 50s southeast Monday night drop into the upper 20s to
low 30s north of Highway 84 to near 40 along the coast Friday night.
Freezing temperatures begin to creep back into the forecast over
northwestern-most portions of the forecast area Wednesday night, and
spread increasing south through the end of the rest of the week.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 406 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023

Winds...Southeasterly to southerly winds will quickly increase late
tonight into Sunday to Small Craft Advisory criteria, and persist
through Monday before decreasing and turning northwesterly behind a
cold front. The strongest winds will likely occur late Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night as frequent gusts to gale force will
be possible. Therefore, a Gale Watch is now in effect for that time
period for our Gulf marine zones.

Seas...Waves will build late tonight through Sunday evening with
wave heights climbing to 8 to 11 feet across the Gulf waters. Waves
in the bays will likely increase to 2 to 3 feet. Waves slowly
diminish through the week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      56  66  58  72  50  60  40  58 /  10  90 100  40  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   58  67  62  71  56  63  45  59 /   0  70 100  70  10   0   0   0
Destin      58  69  63  71  60  68  48  62 /   0  60 100  90  20  10   0   0
Evergreen   49  67  56  70  50  63  37  59 /   0  50 100  80  20  10   0   0
Waynesboro  51  65  55  72  44  58  37  58 /   0  90 100  40  10   0   0   0
Camden      49  66  55  69  47  58  37  56 /   0  50 100  80  20   0   0   0
Crestview   49  68  58  70  53  66  40  60 /   0  50 100  90  20  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for
     ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST Sunday through Tuesday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 PM CST Monday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST Sunday through Tuesday
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 PM CST Monday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ630>633.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
     GMZ634>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

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www.weather.gov/mob