Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
308 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...New MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

...Hot This Weekend with Increasing Rain Chances...

Currently...Watching an area of advancing convection just north
of the area which is being steered south. This area of storms is
poised to approach the I-4 corridor over the next several hours
with at least scattered storms across Volusia/Lake counties to
metro Orlando by dusk. Another area of slower moving storms
across the Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee wl be capable of
bringing some locally heavy rainfall to the Turnpike and I-95
corridor of the Treasure Coast through 6 PM.

Tonight...The light NW flow aloft wl keep the potential for some
late storms in the forecast through at least midnight, especially
across N Central FL. Cloud cover ascd with earlier storms wl
diminish overnight with calm to light sly winds and warm overnight
temps in the M-U70s.

modified prev disc...
Weekend...Mid-level troughing across the eastern U.S. will be
situated between an area of ridging across the southwest U.S. and
an area of ridging over the western Atlantic. Pulses of shortwave
energy will move across the local area Saturday as the trough
moves eastward and flattens. High pressure over the Atlantic will
stretch westward through the period, and light southwest winds
will allow the east coast sea breeze to propagate inland each
afternoon. Numerous showers and afternoon lightning storms are
forecast Saturday (70-80+%) with coverage decreasing only a little
on Sunday (60-70%). Light steering flow will allow for localized
rainfall accumulations of two to three inches. Frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning and peak gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in
strong storms.

High temperatures are forecast in the low to mid 90s each afternoon
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Current trends show peak
Heat Index values generally ranging just shy of or at heat
advisory criteria (108) on Saturday with values increasing to
between 106 and 110 on Sunday. Onset of cloud cover, along with
higher rain chcs will help mitigate duration of high heat index
values, however a heat advisory may be required of portions of
the area at some point by Sunday.

Monday-Thursday...A series of short wave troughs will move eastward
across the CONUS through the period. Locally, high pressure will
dominate the mid-levels as an elongated ridge stretches from the
southwest U.S. into the western Atlantic. Heights fall some on
Wednesday as a shortwave trough digs southward across the eastern
U.S. Temperatures will generally be in the mid 90s Monday and
Tuesday with peak Heat Index values around 110 each afternoon.
Temperatures trend slightly downward into the low to mid 90s
Wednesday and Thursday. Southwest flow will favor the west coast sea
breeze each afternoon, however, some inland movement of the east
coast sea breeze will still be possible. Scattered showers and
lightning storms are forecast each day with the greatest coverage on
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Tonight...Seas 2 to 3 ft with winds around 8 to 12 knots. Some
early storms this aftn wl have to be monitored along and near the
Volusia coast, and north of Cape Canaveral for gusty winds and
lightning.

Saturday-Tuesday...S to SW winds around 10 kts are forecast each
afternoon. Seas up to 3 feet will mostly be contained to the
offshore Volusia and offshore Brevard waters on Saturday.
Otherwise, 1-2 ft seas will prevail through Monday. Seas of 3 ft
build back across offshore Volusia and offshore Brevard on
Tuesday. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible
each afternoon with locally higher wind and seas in vicinity of
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. ISO-SCT SHRA and ISO
TSRA developing along and behind the ECSB as it moves inland,
colliding with the WCSB west of the inland terminals. Storm motion
has been slow and erratic or nearly stationary. Convection has been
pulsing up and down pretty quickly, so sticking with VCTS/VCSH in
the 18Z package, but can't rule out a short-fused TEMPO at the
inland terminals if deeper convection manages to develop. Generally
dry conditions after 22Z at KMLB-KSUA. Have dropped VC mention at
remaining ECFL terminals at 02Z, except Daytona which holds VCSH
until 06Z due to low probability of a line of SHRA/TSRA sweeping
across the peninsula in the first half of the night. Cannot rule out
VC mention or even TEMPOS as far south as KMLB being added to the
TAFs for the 00-06Z time frame in the 00Z package or short-fused
AMDs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  91 /  40  80  40  70
MCO  76  94  77  94 /  30  80  30  70
MLB  76  93  77  94 /  20  70  30  70
VRB  75  93  76  94 /  10  70  20  60
LEE  76  93  77  92 /  40  80  30  70
SFB  76  94  77  94 /  30  80  30  70
ORL  76  94  78  94 /  30  80  30  70
FPR  76  92  77  94 /  10  70  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Digital Forecasts...Pendergrast
Radar...Fehling
Aviation...Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1145 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-050100-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1145 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered lightning storms this afternoon will
increase across the interior with the east and west coast sea
breeze collision late this afternoon into this evening.
Additional storms across north Florida may push south to southeast
toward the I-4 corridor toward to just after sunset tonight.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Slow moving storms will be capable of producing a quick 1 to 3
inches of rainfall leading to ponding of water on roads and minor
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas, especially where
heavy rains have fallen recently.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Highs in the low to mid 90s and very humid conditions will
produce peak afternoon heat indices between 102 and 107 degrees
before the increase in cloud cover and precipitation for some
areas.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a Moderate Risk of dangerous rip currents at all central
Florida Atlantic beaches today. Always swim near a lifeguard, and
never swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A few stronger storms will be capable of producing wind gusts near
or in excess of 35 knots, mainly over inland lakes this afternoon
and evening. However, some storms may approach the I-4 corridor
and shift offshore north of the Cape toward or just after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening lightning storms are
forecast this weekend and early next week as moisture increases
across the region.

Near to above normal temperatures and high humidity will result in
triple-digit heat index values with peak heat indices forecast to
exceed 105, potentially reaching up to 110 this weekend and early
next week.

A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents is expected to
continue at all central Florida Atlantic beaches through the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon and tonight.

Weitlich/Pendergrast

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
416 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

FLZ041-141-042100-
Coastal Volusia FL-Inland Volusia FL-
416 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Volusia County through 500 PM EDT...

At 416 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Ormond-By-the-Sea, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Ormond Beach, South Daytona, and Holly
Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2913 8094 2907 8127 2926 8129 2927 8115
      2936 8115 2941 8116 2941 8115 2942 8115
      2943 8111 2942 8111 2943 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 344DEG 20KT 2934 8120

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Schaper