Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
309 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...New MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Current-Tonight...It remains very warm and humid across ECFL with
temps in the U80s to L90s areawide. Dewpoints generally in the
L-M70s giving way to peak Heat Indices in the 100-105F range.
Remember: Persons working or spending time outdoors today should
be sure to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks in air
conditioning, if available. NEVER leave children or pets
unattended in a car for any length of time.

Fairly quiet early this afternoon thus far, likely a result of
the strong "capping" inversion at 700 mb viewed on the 10Z KXMR
sounding, though the latest 15Z sounding shows that the cap is
weakening. It still remains cool aloft (near -10C at 500 mb) with
ample moisture. We still should eventually see ISOLD to SCT
convection on either the WCSB and/or ECSB (immediate coast) by
later in the day. Uncertainty does remain for later in the evening
and overnight with the potential storm complexes developing
across north FL. Models still inconsistent in strength/timing of
dropping this convective activity southward - possibly towards
Lake/Volusia counties - perhaps even further south across I-4
towards daybreak. As such, will continue to leave that window open
later tonight. A Marginal risk of strong to severe storms remains
in place, generally north of a Titusville-Kissimmee line. There
is likely a northerly wind shift, too, with outflow boundaries to
the north moving south.

The WCSB will remain dominant again this afternoon as it
traverses the peninsula. Winds may back (briefly) to S/SE along
the immediate coast mid-late afternoon but inland movement of the
ECSB (should it develop) will be minimal at best. Forecast PWATs
this afternoon across ECFL range from 1.60-1.80". Primary threats
from ISOLD-SCT storms remain torrential downpours, frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-55 mph, and small hail -
perhaps up to quarter-size in 1 or 2 storms should something get
organized. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out if multiple
boundaries merge - especially near the immediate coast. Highest
coverage should range from late afternoon-early evening, though
will again need to remain vigilant if later evening or overnight
activity to the north (MCS complex) is able to hold together and
push southeast across the I-4 corridor area.

Overnight lows in the M-U70s will provide little relief from the
heat with conditions remaining humid.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

Fri...Model guidance shows an increase in the deep layer W/SW wind
flow, specifically 20-25 knots in the 925-850 mb layer which is
strong enough to prevent the east coast sea breeze from even
forming. Max temps will reach the low to mid 90s despite some high
cloudiness with peak heat indices 101-105. There is also a short
wave trough that digs SE across FL which will provide some upper
support for deep convection. The increase in mid level wind fields,
combined with surface destabilization beneath steep mid level lapse
rates should support strong to marginally severe storms Fri aftn
into the eve containing wind gusts and hail.

Sat-Wed...Another short wave trough is forecast to dig across FL on
Sat and produce high rain chances (around 70 percent). This feature
pushes east of the area Sun but another (stronger) short wave rounds
the top of the upper ridge centered over the Rio Grande Valley and
then reinforces the eastern US upper trough into next week. Thus,
keeping us stuck in this pattern of deep layer offshore flow.

Above normal temps will continue, with widespread low to mid 90s and
peak heat indices 101-106, just below the criteria for a Heat
Advisory (108-112). Only a small uptick in temps or dewpoints could
bring about the need for Heat Advisories for at least a portion of
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Afternoon-Tonight...The surface ridge axis remains surpressed
south/east of our local area. Southwest to West flow remains
dominant; perhaps a bit of "backing" of winds to the
south/southeast in the afternoon - especially near the coast - as
the sea breeze attempts to develop. Wind speeds typically 10-15
kts, though there may be a wind surge, again tonight, over the
offshore waters with a brief period of 15-20 kt winds. Seas mainly
2-3 ft but could occasionally build up to 4 ft offshore.

Isolated to Scattered offshore-moving showers and storms remain
forecast this afternoon and evening; and due to an unusual weather
pattern mariners will need to watch for some overnight activity, as
well, especially if storm complexes over north FL are able to hold
together and drop southeastward toward/across the area - mainly Cape
northward. Winds and seas locally higher invof convection.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE FORECAST DISCUSSION...

Fri-Mon...Persistent pattern of moderate to occasionally fresh SW to
WSW (offshore) flow is forecast to continue through the weekend.
This will tend to keep seas suppressed near the coast at 1-2 feet
with up to 4 feet well offshore. A sea breeze looks unlikely to
develop Fri anywhere as offshore flow looks too strong but a late
sea breeze should form and remained pinned near the coast this
weekend, mainly south of the Cape. The primary concern for mariners
will be strong offshore-moving storms producing locally higher winds
and seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

VFR continues outside of possible VCTS thru 00z-01z. SW winds
around 10-14 kt with gusts around 20 kt will continue thru 00z.
Hi-res model guidance indicates development of TSRA from north to
south, mainly from SFB/MCO eastward this afternoon. TSRA and
MVFR/IFR conds, as well as any TEMPOs at any of the sites, will
need to be handled by AMD as necessary.

Offshore flow will continue tonight with additional SHRA/TSRA
expected, mainly after 13-16z Fri. SW winds will be gusty, up to
20- 25 kt at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  91  75 /  50  30  50  50
MCO  95  76  92  76 /  40  30  50  50
MLB  94  77  93  75 /  30  30  40  40
VRB  94  76  93  74 /  30  30  40  30
LEE  92  77  89  75 /  40  40  60  50
SFB  94  77  91  76 /  40  30  50  50
ORL  94  77  92  77 /  40  30  50  50
FPR  93  76  93  75 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sedlock
LONG TERM....Law
AVIATION...Schaper
DSS...Tollefsen

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1020 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-160000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1020 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
The combination of hot afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s
and high humidity will lead to peak Heat Indices between 100 and
106 degrees this afternoon. Persons engaged in outdoor activities
should remain well hydrated and take indoor rest breaks in an air
conditioned location, if available. NEVER leave children or pets
unattended in a car for any amount of time.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered lightning storms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening, but there remains a high degree of
uncertainty how storms will develop today. Strong to marginally
severe storms remain possible, especially north of a line from
Klondike Beach to Lake Louisa. A round of overnight lightning
storms, especially I-4 corridor northward will be possible, again,
if storm complexes to the north hold together and move southeastward.

In general, primary storm threats will be torrential downpours,
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40 to 55 mph in a few
storms, and small hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, if
multiple boundaries merge, especially near the coast.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Wind gusts of 35 knots or greater will be possible over inland
lakes, the Intracoastal Waterway, and near shore Atlantic waters, as
lightning storms move eastward at 10 to 15 knots. Boaters across the
Intracoastal and near shore Atlantic waters should watch for storms
approaching from the west and seek safe shelter well in advance as
storms will be offshore-moving.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Southwesterly winds may periodically approach 15 to 20 knots
offshore later this evening and overnight due to brief wind
surges. Small craft should Exercise Caution out past 20 nautical
miles tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Scattered lightning storms are forecast through early next week.
The threat for gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and
torrential downpours will continue each afternoon. A few storms
could be strong to marginally severe Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm this week, with highs
reaching the low to mid 90s near the coast and mid to possibly
upper 90s across the interior. The hot temperatures combined with
high humidity will push afternoon Heat Indices to between 102 and
107 degrees into early next week.

A Moderate Risk of dangerous rip currents could return Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon and tonight.

Sedlock/Haley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
730 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

FLZ547-647-747-160015-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Inland Southern Brevard FL-
Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
730 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Brevard
County through 815 PM EDT...

At 730 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Palm Bay, moving northeast at 25 mph. Additional strong storms are
pushing offshore Brevard County.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Melbourne, Rockledge, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2784 8048 2785 8049 2784 8050 2783 8082
      2835 8078 2834 8056 2819 8056 2784 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 244DEG 20KT 2801 8068

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Weitlich

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
748 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

FLZ154-159-254-259-647-160030-
Coastal St. Lucie FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-Inland Indian River FL-
Coastal Indian River FL-Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
748 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern St.
Lucie and eastern Indian River Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 748 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pointe West, or near Vero Beach South, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Pierce, Sebastian, Vero Beach, Fellsmere and Indian River
Shores.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2739 8047 2782 8063 2782 8056 2785 8058
      2786 8046 2786 8045 2787 8042 2743 8023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 235DEG 23KT 2761 8047

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper

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