Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
209 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...A Few Severe Storms Possible This Evening...

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Through Tonight...
It's been a fairly quiet day so far, but we do expect that to
change over the next several hours. Still monitoring the risk for
storms, with the potential for one or two of them to go severe.
Drier air aloft (H5 RH <25%) may contribute to somewhat higher
chance for gusty winds (downbursts) to develop in these storms.
The wind profile is fairly unidirectional/westerly. Bulk shear is
pretty weak but may approach 25 KT later this afternoon. Our
convective triggers will be a weak surface front across North FL,
a bit of PVA, and the Atlantic breeze, which will stick close to
the coast due to the westerly synoptic flow. We appear to be
plenty buoyant this afternoon: 2000+J/kg of MLCAPE is estimated
by SPC mesoanalysis, roughly north of a Daytona Beach to Clermont
line. However, the 15Z XMR sounding would suggest these values may
be somewhat overdone.

Initiation has already occurred from the FL Panhandle over to near
Gainesville. HREF depicts that the storms to our north are
forecast to first drift southeastward through Lake/Volusia
Counties before settling toward the Space Coast. Any leftover
storms will weaken then move offshore the Treasure Coast last.
Timing for all of this activity is expected from roughly 4PM to
11PM from north to south. Overnight, quiet weather resumes with
lows 68-73.

Our threats from any severe storms this evening would be wind gusts
to around 60 mph, hail up to quarter size, torrential rain, and
frequent lightning. There is a low, but non-zero, threat for a brief
tornado or two, particularly near the coast where low-level winds
will be backed out of the SE, locally increasing helicity values.

This Weekend...
Low-level synoptic flow breaks down on Saturday. This will allow the
Atlantic Breeze a running chance of making it further inland than
recently. Scattered-numerous (50-70%) storm coverage is expected in
the afternoon across our interior, with 30-50% chances closer to the
coast. On Sunday, SW flow picks up once again, keeping our Atlantic
breeze closer to I-95. This will focus better storm coverage a
little to the east of Saturday. There will be some dry air advecting
in aloft by Sunday, however we still expect 40-60% storm coverage by
afternoon/early evening. High temps will range from the upper 80s to
low 90s.

Next Week...
The subtropical jet remains quite active for mid-June,
sending multiple disturbances across the Southeast (just to our
north). H5 ridging will try to build across W GOMEX into TX. Weak
troughing will extend from a Great Lakes low down into Florida
through Tuesday or Wednesday before the Gulf ridge tries to bridge
with the Bermuda high. Throughout the period, westerly or
southwesterly flow prevails in the mid-upper troposphere,
delivering somewhat drier air aloft. Ensemble guidance also shows
H7 T's reaching above the 90th percentile later next week, which
may stabilize us a bit. A SW component will be common in the low
layers. The result of all this looks to be lower storm chances
mainly focused on the afternoon sea breeze circulation, which most
days will be pinned close to the East Coast of Florida.

With H85 temps approaching +20C, temperatures are quickly becoming
the bigger concern mid/late week. Our official (NBM) forecast now
explicitly reaches 95-97F west of I-95 from Wednesday onward. At
Orlando Int'l, the chance of exceeding 95F jump to over 60% by
Thursday. Heat indices in excess of 100F are likely, with at least
some potential of reaching our heat advisory criteria (108F)
along I-95. Excessive heat can be extremely dangerous; precautions
may need to be taken to protect you, your family, and your pets
later next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Tonight-Saturday...Seas are quite benign with buoy 41009
reporting under 2 ft waves. This will remain the case for the
period. Nearshore, a few storms develop late this afternoon/
evening with gusty winds and lightning expected in the vicinity of
this activity. Lesser storm coverage is expected near the waters
on Saturday. Winds will become SSE/SE over the next few hours
before returning to WSW overnight. On Saturday, winds become
easterly late morning into the afternoon. Speeds generally 10kt or
less outside of any storms.

Sunday-Wednesday (modified previous discussion)...Scattered showers
and storms this weekend become more isolated next week, though cells
will continue to drift offshore into the Atlantic each day during
the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong,
especially along the sea breeze. South to southwesterly flow
overnight becoming east to southeast each day as the sea breeze
develops and tries to push inland, with varying success. Winds
around 5-10kts on Sunday rise to 10-15kts through midweek, except 15-
20kts Monday night beyond 20nm. Seas 1-2ft, with occasional pockets
of up to 3-4ft well offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Slower start to convection today across the area, with VCTS as early
as 18Z at DAB, 19Z at SUA, 20Z at SFB/LEE/TIX/FPR, and 21Z at
MCO/ISM/MLB/VRB. TEMPOs in place at MCO/SFB/ISM/DAB/TIX/MLB between
20-02Z for VIS/CIG reductions down to MVFR conditions due to TSRA.
Some gusty winds associated with storms will also be possible.
Conditions improving after 03Z across the area, with light and
variable winds overnight. VCSH along the coast beginning around 15Z
tomorrow, with easterly winds 5 to 8 knots at all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  85  72  88 /  60  50  30  50
MCO  72  91  73  92 /  40  60  40  60
MLB  72  88  73  90 /  50  40  30  50
VRB  71  89  72  91 /  40  40  30  40
LEE  71  92  72  92 /  30  60  40  50
SFB  71  91  73  92 /  50  60  40  60
ORL  73  91  74  93 /  50  60  40  60
FPR  71  88  72  89 /  40  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Heil/Pendergrast/Tollefsen/Law

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1012 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-100215-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1012 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Through mid-afternoon, a few storms are forecast to develop along
the Treasure Coast. From mid and late afternoon through late in
the evening, numerous showers and storms over north Florida may
organize and drop southeast into central Florida. Our coastal
counties are most likely to see lightning storms today and
through the evening.

Storms will move east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. There is a
marginal risk for a few storms to turn severe. Strong storms
which occur along boundary collisions will be capable of producing
wind gusts up to 60 mph, hail up to 1 inch in diameter, frequent
lightning, and very heavy downpours. Conditions may even become
favorable for a tornado or waterspout to form near and offshore
the Florida east coast, once the east coast sea breeze develops
very late in the afternoon. Move indoors to safety if skies look
threatening, or you hear thunder.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
The most intense storms may also produce between 1 and 3 inches of
rainfall in a 60 to 90 minute period. this would result in local
flooding of roads and poorly drained urban and low lying areas.
Never attempt to drive across a water covered road, as the water
depth may be to great to allow your vehicle to cross safely.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents continues at all central
Florida Atlantic beaches today. Check with the beach patrol for
additional information about ocean hazards. Remember to swim only
within sight of a lifeguard, and never enter the ocean alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Storms will also be capable of producing wind gusts of 35 knots or
greater over inland lakes, but especially near the Intracoastal
Waterway and near shore Atlantic, during the late afternoon and
early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Scattered coverage of lightning storms is forecast to continue
through this weekend, with a slight decrease in coverage forecast
from the early to middle part of next week. The threat for gusty
winds, small hail, frequent lightning and torrential downpours in
the strongest storms will continue.

As storm coverage decreases next week, temperatures will increase
with highs reaching the low to mid 90s near the coast and mid to
upper 90s across the interior. The combination of increasing heat
and humidity will push afternoon heat indices to around 100
degrees in several locations Sunday and Monday, and to between
100 and 106 degrees from Tuesday into late week. Persons engaged
in outdoor activities will want to remain well hydrated, and take
indoor rest breaks in an air conditioned location as needed.

The rip current risk will remain Moderate through this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Heil

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