Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1002 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023

...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023

At 945am, KMLB radar imagery showed scattered showers and storms
across the Atlantic waters with a few isolated showers along the
immediate coastline. Coverage of showers and storms will increase
this afternoon as the east coast seabreeze develops and moves
inland, eventually colliding with the west coast breeze late this
afternoon. Showers and storms will drift back eastward this evening,
and shower activity will linger beyond sunset generally from
Brevard/Osceola county southward. Environmental conditions will be
favorable for strong to marginally severe storms as a weak surface
boundary sits across north Florida, slowly sagging southward. The 10z
XMR sounding indicates a very moist airmass remaining in place today
with a PWAT of 1.91", and the Weather Prediction Center has
highlighted all of east central Florida in a 1 of 5 risk for
excessive rainfall. Up to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible
where repeated rounds of thunderstorms occur. MU CAPE values around
2,000 J/kg and increased DCAPE values indicate the potential for
strong to severe downburst winds around 50-60 mph. Cool temperatures
aloft will also favor the potential for small hail with isolated
hail up to 1 inch in diameter possible in the strongest storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 954 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023

Today-Tonight...Current observations at NOAA Buoy 41009 -
20NM east of Cape Canaveral shows seas of 3.6 ft with winds out of
the WSW around 6 kts. Seas up to 5 ft will build southwestward
across the Volusia waters and offshore Brevard. Variable winds this
morning will become ENE this afternoon around 10 kts becoming
variable again overnight. Current KMLB radar imagery shows ongoing
showers and lightning storms across the Volusia and Brevard waters.
Coverage of showers and lightning storms will continue across all
local waters this afternoon with some lingering beyond sunset.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 954 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023

IFR CIGs lingering at LEE with TEMPO updated through 15Z.
VCSH along the coast this morning and coverage of showers and storms
will increase at all terminals this afternoon. TEMPOs for TSRA
beginning around 19z at Treasure Coast terminals and 21z inland. VCSH
will linger beyond sunset, particularly at coastal terminals. E/ENE
winds this afternoon around 10 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 505 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023

Wed...Weather pattern will remain very supportive of high rain
chances, including heavy rainfall producing localized flooding.
Deep moisture (PWATs ~1.70") will pool along a near stationary
frontal boundary across the central/southern FL peninsula.
Deepening upper trough over the SE US will cause temps aloft to
cool to -11C at 500mb, provide diffluent upper flow and shortwave
energy rotating around the base of the trough. There should be
considerable multi-layered cloudiness which will limit heating/sfc
based instability holding max temps to the lower 80s Orlando
northward and mid 80s south. Lack of daytime heating is the main
mitigating factor for severe storms. There will also not be a sea
breeze collision as developing NE flow overspreads much of the
area. However, localized convergence from a developing weak low
along the frontal boundary may be sufficient to produce a few
strong storms.

Thu-Mon...Low pressure is forecast to lift slowly N/NE away from
the FL Atlc coast Thu-Fri which will scour out the deepest
moisture. But lingering moisture will combine with cool temps
aloft will continue to produce numerous showers/storms Thu,
scattered coverage Fri then noticeably less rain chances (20-30
percent) by Sun-Mon as drier air moves in. With less clouds and
precip, temperatures will be on a warming trend. Starting in the
low 80s north and mid 80s south Thu-Fri, warming to the upper
80s/near 90 interior by Mon and mid 80s immediate coast.
Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  69  80  68 /  80  60  80  50
MCO  86  70  82  69 /  90  70  90  40
MLB  85  71  83  69 /  80  70  80  60
VRB  86  69  85  67 /  70  80  80  60
LEE  87  69  80  68 /  90  70  80  30
SFB  86  69  81  68 /  80  60  90  40
ORL  88  71  82  70 /  90  70  90  40
FPR  85  70  83  68 /  70  80  80  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Law/Watson/Sedlock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1029 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-240230-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1029 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Another day of numerous showers and lightning storms can be
anticipated across east central Florida. Strong to isolated
severe storms are most likely to occur in the afternoon and early
evening hours. The strongest storms will produce frequent cloud-
to-ground lightning, gusty winds from 40 to 60 miles per hour, and
hail to quarter size. Remember to seek shelter indoors when you
hear thunder.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Where repeated rounds of thunderstorms occur, localized rain
amounts up to 4 inches in a short time are possible. This could
lead to flooding of low-lying areas, especially where heavy
rainfall has already fallen the last few days. If you encounter
flooding, turn around, don't drown.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all
east central Florida Atlantic coast beaches. Check with your
local beach patrol for additional information about ocean hazards.
Remember to swim only within sight of a lifeguard, and never
enter the ocean alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Wind gusts over 30 knots from the strongest storms will affect
inland lakes and waterways today. Near and offshore waters could
also experience this activity this evening as storms drift back
toward the coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Unsettled weather is expected to continue for much of the work
week. Low pressure is forecast to form near or east of Florida by
Wednesday or Thursday. Abundant moisture will remain in place,
leading to more opportunities for heavy showers and lightning
storms. A few of the strongest storms will be capable of producing
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, gusty winds from 40
to 50 mph, and hail to quarter-size.

There will be a continued chance for localized flooding where
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall occurs through the work week.

A Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents is expected to continue at
all east central Florida Atlantic beaches this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Law

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1233 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023

FLZ159-164-259-231700-
Coastal St. Lucie FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-Coastal Martin FL-
1233 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern St. Lucie
County through 100 PM EDT...

At 1232 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
Port Saint Lucie River Park, or near White City, moving east at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Port Saint Lucie, Fort Pierce, Stuart, White City and Jensen Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2721 8050 2745 8065 2744 8032 2721 8023
TIME...MOT...LOC 1632Z 270DEG 9KT 2733 8035

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
308 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023

FLZ045-053-231945-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
308 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Orange
and north central Osceola Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 307 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Lake Hart, or 7 miles southwest of Wedgefield, moving southwest at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Wedgefield, Avalon Park, Orlando International Airport and
Conway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2858 8102 2834 8093 2825 8130 2852 8134
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 048DEG 6KT 2839 8113

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Watson