Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

...Strong to Locally Severe Late Day Storms Expected...

Current...Increasing shower and storm coverage this afternoon
ahead of the west coast sea breeze as it moves eastward. The east
coast sea breeze has developed, but is struggling to move inland,
especially south of the Cape. With the ECSB struggling, a
collision is now favored even closer to the coast. The 15Z XMR
sounding indicated slightly drier conditions with a PWAT of 1.27",
but the GOES imagery is showing PWATs increasing back up to
1.3-1.4" across east central Florida. While MLCAPE has decreased
slightly to 1200 J/kg based on the sounding, MUCAPE increased to
3000 J/kg, and lapse rates remain around 6.4 C/km, meaning there
is still sufficient instability for severe to strong storm
development this afternoon. DCAPE values have also increased since
this morning to 1100 J/kg, meaning strong downdrafts will be
possible and could lead to gusts between 50-60 mph. Bulk shear
values have decreased since the last sounding to 20-30 knots, but
this will still be somewhat sufficient for some tilted updrafts.
500 mb temperatures are staying consistent between -10C and -11C,
so hail near 1" remains possible with the strongest storms. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially along the coast
where winds will veer with height along and east of the sea
breeze collision. Hi-res model guidance also continues to show
SRH values increasing late this afternoon along the coast, further
supporting an isolated tornado or two.

Tonight-Friday...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop on outflow boundaries through the early
overnight hours while gradually pushing offshore over the local
Atlantic waters. Loss of daytime heating will make it harder for
storms to develop over the waters, but an isolated thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out. Overnight lows in the mid 60s across east
central Florida. Tomorrow, a quieter start to the day, with some
lingering moisture over the area combined with a sea breeze
collision in the afternoon leading to isolated to scattered
showers primarily south of the Orlando metro and along the coast.
An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out once again tomorrow,
particularly along the coast south of the Cape and over the local
waters, but the environment will be slightly less favorable with
hi-res model guidance indicating less instability and a slightly
drier vertical profile. If skies are able to clear out early in
the morning though, daytime heating could help increase
instability across the area. Showers and storms will push offshore
by the early evening hours and continue further east into Friday
night. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s across east central
Florida tomorrow, with overnight lows dropping into the 60s
Friday evening.

Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) A mid level cut off low
over the Mid Atlantic states will continue to depart northeastward.
At the surface, drier air getting wrapped into the low will drop
rain chances to 10 pct or less across east central Florida for the
day, before increasing again Sunday. Warm conditions with
temperatures above seasonal values. Highs will approaching the upper
80s east of I-95, with coastal areas slightly cooler in the mid 80s.
Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday-Thursday...(Previous Discussion) A mid level trough over the
central U.S. will strengthen and begin to lift northeast as the low
closes on Sunday. A mid level shortwave associated with the feature
will begin to move across the Florida panhandle Sunday, approaching
east central Florida Sunday night. Models are in disagreement in
expected precip coverage with this feature with the ECM much wetter
than the GFS. Have elected to blend the NBM with the past forecast
package until there is more model consistency. This has nudged pops
up slightly on Sunday with coverage around 50% area wide. Shower
chances will linger on Monday with greatest coverage generally from
Titusville/Lake Kissimmee southward (30-50%) as the boundary
continues to push southward. Surface high pressure will begin to
build into the area on Tuesday with a period of very dry air filling
in. No mentionable PoPs through Thursday with modeled PWATs
generally around 0.5".

Warm on Sunday as temperatures approach 90 across the interior. Some
slight relief on Monday as afternoon temperatures top out in the low
to mid 80s with even some upper 70s along the Volusia coast. A
warming trend will continue through the remainder of the week with
mid to upper 80s returning across the interior by Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Tonight-Friday...A sea breeze collision near the coast will cause an
increase in rain and storm development late this afternoon into
tonight. These showers and storms will push offshore and across the
local Atlantic waters late this evening into tonight. Cautionary
statements remain in effect for the offshore waters for seas up to
6 ft. Boating conditions will continue to very gradually improve,
with southeasterly winds 10-15 knots veering to out of the
southwest at 5- 10 knots on Friday. Seas 4-6 feet offshore tonight
will slowly subside to 2-4 feet on Friday.

Saturday-Monday...Weak high pressure builds across the local
Atlantic waters through early Sun as the Gulf low pushes further
to the NNE. Rain chances decrease to 10 pct or less Sat, but
increase again to ~40 pct Sun ahead of an approaching cold front,
which should reach the northern waters early Sun morning. Rain
chances 20 pct to the N and 60 pct to the S decrease through the
day as the front pushes southward, with mostly dry conditions
behind. Thunderstorms possible Sun and Mon. Winds more variable
and generally driven by diurnal circulation through Sun as the
pressure gradient loosens, becoming SSE-SE ~10 kts in the
afternoon-evening, and light S-SW at night-early morning. Winds
become SW 10-15 kts ahead of the front early Mon, then veer to N
behind the front. Seas 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft in the Gulf Stream Sat
subside to around 2 ft Sun, then increase to 2-3 ft nearshore and
3-5 ft offshore Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

VCSH beginning to develop ahead of the west coast sea breeze, with
ISM/MCO/LEE getting the first rounds of rain. VCSH becoming VCTS
around 19-20Z, with showers and thunderstorms continuing east
towards the coast. A sea breeze collision is expected near to just
east of the Orlando metro late this afternoon. Southwesterly winds
10-13 knots across interior terminals, with southeasterly winds 12-
14 knots along the coast. Occasional gusts up to 22 knots will be
possible at the coastal terminals. TEMPOs in effect between 19-23Z
at MCO and SFB and 20-01Z along the coast for +TSRA and MVFR/IFR VIS
and CIG reductions. Conditions improving after 01Z at
MCO/ISM/LEE/SFB and after 03Z along the coast. Southwest winds 5-8
knots overnight. Friday, VCSH possible again near MCO/ISM/SFB moving
eastward to MLB/TIX around 15Z. Winds pick back up out of the
southwest around 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  85  62  83 /  50  20   0   0
MCO  67  87  65  88 /  40  20   0  10
MLB  67  85  65  84 /  50  30   0  10
VRB  66  87  65  86 /  40  40  10  10
LEE  67  87  64  88 /  20  10   0   0
SFB  66  88  64  88 /  40  20   0   0
ORL  68  87  66  89 /  40  20   0  10
FPR  67  86  66  85 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ041-044>046-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ570-
     572-575.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tollefsen
LONG TERM....Haley
AVIATION...Pendergrast

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1113 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-140300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1113 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A very warm, humid air mass will overspread east central Florida
this afternoon as a warm front pushes north of the area. The
combination of cold temperatures aloft and a late day collision
between the west and east coast sea breeze over the eastern side
of the peninsula is forecast to result in rapid development of
lightning storms by around 4 PM, most likely a little east of the
metro Orlando corridor, near the Saint Johns River basin. Storms
will then move northeast at 20 to 30 mph across the coastal
counties and into the Atlantic.

Severe storms with strong to damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph,
hail up to 1 inch in diameter, frequent lightning, and torrential
downpours will be possible. A few rotating storms could produce a
brief tornado. Move indoors to safety at the first sign of
threatening skies, or if you hear thunder.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Storms could produce wind gusts of 35 knots or greater, possibly
in excess of 50 knots, hail, frequent lightning and locally higher
waves across inland lakes, the Intracoastal Waterway and nearshore
Atlantic as they move northeast at 20 to 25 knots. Boaters should
watch for storms rapidly approaching from the southwest late this
afternoon, and move to safe harbor in advance.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
Rotating storms could produce waterspouts, over the Intracoastal
Waterway and nearshore Atlantic from late afternoon into early
this evening.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Torrential downpours from storms coast total 1 to 3 inches in a
60 to 90 minute period. This may cause local temporary ponding of
water of flooding of roads, and other urban and poorly drained
low-lying areas, Never attempt to drive across a water covered
road.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all
central Florida Atlantic beaches. In addition, expect rough,
choppy surf with breaking waves of 4 to 5 feet, mainly during
this morning. Entering the surf is not advised today.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Southeast winds of 15 to 20 knots will produce seas of 5 to 7 feet
near shore and up to 8 feet well offshore through this afternoon.
Winds and seas should begin to subside later today, however
conditions will remain poor for boaters into this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A cold front will approach central Florida by Sunday night and
move across the area on Monday. Showers and lightning storms will
accompany the front as it moves through the region. Winds and
seas will also increase as the front approaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Cristaldi

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