Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...New MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...The first radar returns of the day have been
detected across east central FL, with isolated thunderstorms west of
Orlando pushing eastward towards the Saint Johns basin. The delicate
cu field from earlier this morning has filled in substantially this
afternoon, eroding along the west FL coastline as the west coast sea
breeze begins its journey inland. Also faintly seen is the east
coast sea breeze which is paralleling the immediate Brevard County
coast, and isn't expected to venture much farther inland this
afternoon.

Over the next few hours, convection will ramp up as isolated storms
increase in coverage over the interior and then interact with the
pinned east coast sea breeze. Through the day, each HRRR update has
been consistent with robust convection at the coast, initially just
along the Treasure Coast but has expanded to include areas from
Jupiter to Daytona Beach. Storm motion will be to the east at 15 to
20 mph this afternoon, with wind gusts of 50 mph, frequent
lightning, heavy downpours and small hail the main hazards. By this
evening (towards sunset), thunderstorms will reach the Atlantic
waters and push farther offshore, however debris anvil rain may
spread back across the interior through midnight.

West to southwest flow has aided temperatures in climbing above
normal values in the lower 90s, with Vero Beach having tied a
previous record high of 95 degrees. Temperatures will drop overnight
to the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Thursday...Higher rain chances return tomorrow as a weak boundary
dips across the area and an associated surface low develops off the
FL Atlantic coastline. Another afternoon where the west coast sea
breeze will dominate in deep westerly flow, but CAM guidance has
been eager in a robust collision over the interior with convection
drifting to the east coast once again. Similar storm hazards
expected as today with gusty winds and heavy downpours although
coverage will be a bit higher as PoPs range from 50-60%. Activity
will linger at the coast through sunset then push offshore prior to
midnight. Very warm highs again reaching the lower 90s, upper 80s at
the immediate coast.

Friday-Saturday...Mid-level troughing will move across the Florida
peninsula with the associated surface low lifting northeast across
the southeastern US on Friday. The Westerly steering flow coupled
with the rather moist environment (PWATs around 1.6") and the
development of the east coast sea breeze will allow for scattered
showers and isolated storm development in the afternoon across east
central Florida. Any storms that do develop on Friday will be
capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall. By Saturday, the mid-level trough will have pushed
east of the peninsula, with model guidance indicating some minimal
drying across east central Florida. Steering flow will be weaker
compared to Friday, but the development of the east coast sea breeze
and subsequent collisions across the interior will lead to a chance
for rain and isolated thunderstorms. With a slightly less favorable
environment, PoPs decrease on Saturday, generally in the 30-40
percent range in the afternoon. Showers and storms that develop will
generally diminish further into the evening hours on both days, with
the best chances for any further rain or storm development occurring
over the local Atlantic waters.

Warm temperatures will continue Friday and Saturday, with afternoon
highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s along the immediate coast
and in the low 90s across the interior. Overnight lows in the upper
60s to low 70s across east central Florida.

Sunday-Wednesday (previous)...With departure of the trough east of
the region a brief period of relative drying wl occur Sat, with a
smaller chc of aftn showers and storms as local boundaries come
together. Weak sfc ridging combining with stronger seasonal heating
and afternoon boundaries wl lead to isold/sct storms in the
afternoons into early next week with highs around 90 and nighttime
lows around 70. Into Tue, weak ridging looks to give way to height
falls invof of the peninsula. Both GFS and Euro are indicative of a
transitory wave sufficient to bring higher rain chcs around Tue/Wed
of next week. Rain cvrg and amounts may be higher than what is
indicated at this early stage, should a more robust feature develop
in proximity to the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

Tonight-Tomorrow...South and east winds due the east coast sea
breeze circulation will return westerly overnight but not before
isolated to scattered thunderstorms push offshore this evening.
Locally higher seas and winds up to 35 knots will be possible in
convection late this afternoon and also again tomorrow. Outside of
convection, winds up to 10 knots and seas generally 2-3 feet.

Friday-Monday...Seas will build to 3 to 5 feet across the local
Atlantic waters on Friday due to increasing swell, with seas
gradually subsiding through the weekend back down to 2-3 feet by
Sunday. Friday through Sunday, southwest winds will start off each
morning and gradually veer to out of the east at 5 to 10 knots each
afternoon due to the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas
will then build once again heading into Monday due to onshore flow
around 10 knots. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
be possible each afternoon through the evening hours, typically
moving offshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

Today-Tomorrow...Minimum RH values will be of concern over the
next couple of days as values fall below 40 percent across the
interior with high temperatures climbing to the lower 90s.
Westerly winds will continue to dominate, pinning the east coast
sea breeze to the barrier islands or east of I-95. Because of
this, the resultant sea breeze collision will occur along the
coast, where the highest chance for showers and lightning storms
are expected this afternoon and early evening and again tomorrow.

Rain and storm chances will increase for the remainder of the
week and into the weekend as increasing moisture along with a
destabilized atmosphere develops in the afternoons. Expect
scattered afternoon storms inland with movement toward the east
coast from mid to late afternoon. Higher RH and areas of rainfall
will preclude development of critical fire weather. Dispersion
will be very good to excellent during afternoons into late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

Convection already sparking over the interior as of 19Z between KSFB
and KDAB. As the dominant west coast sea breeze continues inland and
the east coast breeze pinned to the coast (only reaching KMLB so
far), a robust collision is anticipated within the next few hours,
bringing IFR/MVFR cigs to coastal terminals and even as far inland
as KMCO. Activity will push offshore by 02Z with winds becoming
variable overnight. West winds return after 13-14Z tomorrow, with
another round of thunderstorms after 16-18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  87  69  85 /  10  60  50  40
MCO  70  91  70  91 /  20  60  40  50
MLB  70  87  70  87 /  40  60  50  50
VRB  68  89  69  88 /  40  50  50  50
LEE  70  90  70  90 /  10  50  30  50
SFB  69  91  70  89 /  10  60  40  50
ORL  71  93  71  91 /  10  60  40  50
FPR  69  87  69  88 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Smith
LONG TERM/IDSS....Tollefsen
RADAR...Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
432 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-172100-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
432 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered lightning storms will be possible across all of east
central Florida today, with the dominate westerly flow pinning the
east coast sea breeze near the coast. The greatest potential for
storms this afternoon and evening will be from Brevard to southern
Osceola southward, with the sea breeze collision expected to
occur near the coast. A few showers and storms may push back
towards the coast this evening, as the steering flow remains
westerly.

Any storms that form this afternoon will be capable of producing
occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40 to 50
mph, locally heavy downpours, and small hail. Always move indoors
if skies begin to look threatening, or if you hear thunder.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A moderate risk of dangerous rip currents continues at the central
Florida Atlantic beaches today. If you plan on heading to the beach
today, when you arrive, check with your local beach patrol for
additional information about ocean hazards. Remember to swim only
within sight of a lifeguard, and never enter the ocean alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated storms could produce wind gusts to around 35 knots,
mainly over inland lakes, the Intracoastal Waterway, and the
Atlantic waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A moderate risk of dangerous rip currents is expected to continue
at all central Florida Atlantic beaches through late week.

Isolated to scattered lightning storms are forecast each afternoon
through this weekend. The main storm threats will be cloud to
ground lightning strikes, gusty winds, torrential downpours and
small hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
233 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

FLZ041-044>046-171900-
Northern Lake County FL-Orange FL-Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-
233 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Seminole, east central Lake, northwestern Orange and central Volusia
Counties through 300 PM EDT...

At 232 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Plymouth, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Sanford, Apopka, Winter Springs and Casselberry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2868 8151 2882 8157 2902 8132 2870 8119
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 248DEG 11KT 2880 8148

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Haley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
416 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

FLZ045-046-172045-
Orange FL-Seminole FL-
416 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Orange and
southwestern Seminole Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 415 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Orlovista, or over Pine Hills, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Sanford, Apopka, Altamonte Springs and Ocoee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8150 2860 8158 2876 8129 2851 8117
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 246DEG 15KT 2855 8147

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Cristaldi

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
434 PM EDT WED MAY 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     TSTM WND GST     SANFORD AIRPORT         28.78N  81.24W
05/17/2023  M44 MPH          SEMINOLE           FL   ASOS

            THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 38
            KNOTS/44 MPH FROM THE WNW.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2300162

KELLY

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>