Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
429 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023

...New MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight... Cloudy conditions from the storms over the Gulf
of Mexico earlier today has resulted in delayed/suppressed
convection this afternoon, especially across the interior. The east
coast sea breeze is trying to form, but it remains just offshore as
of 3 PM. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms
have formed just off the coast of the Treasure Coast this afternoon,
and remain over the Atlantic waters as it shifts farther offshore.
There is some uncertainty with convection for the remaining part of
the afternoon and into this evening. If the sea breeze can push
onshore, than the ample low level moisture (PW values ranging from
1.3-1.5") will support scattered to numerous showers and isolated
lightning storms into this evening, mainly along the coast. Guidance
has back off quite a bit on convection today, due to the cloudy
conditions earlier, however, the greatest potential (PoP 50-60
percent) for showers and storms this afternoon and evening will be
along the coast. Any storms that do form will be capable of
producing gusty winds up to 60mph, hail up to a quarter sized,
frequent lightning, and heavy down pours. A brief tornado can not be
ruled out along the coast due to sea breeze interactions. Lingering
shower and storm activity tonight is forecast to end around
midnight, becoming mostly dry overnight. Overnight lows will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s with decreasing cloud cover.

Saturday... The active weather pattern continues into Saturday as a
shortwave trough over TX, with an associated surface cool front,
moves eastward across the Deep South. An upper level jet over the
Deep South will remain in place, which will increase upper level
support for thunderstorm development in the afternoon. A pre-frontal
trough will push southeast across Florida through the day while
short wave energy continues to move across the peninsula. This will
result in two main rounds of convection in the afternoon, with
scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms expected.
Guidance continues to show these two rounds of convection, with the
earlier round initiating along the east coast sea breeze later in the
afternoon, and a squall line in association with aforementioned
trough will be the second round late in the afternoon and into the
evening.

Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon, with
the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) having east central Florida in a
"SLIGHT" risk for severe weather. Forecast soundings shows a
favorable environment for stronger to severe storms, with ample
instability (MUCAPE 1400-2800 J/kg), sufficient shear (sfc-3km shear
20-40 kts), 0-3km SRH as high as 200-300 m^2/s^2, cooler
temperatures aloft (500mb temperatures of -10 to -12 C, and
steepening lapse rates (~7-8.0 C/km). This will result in any storm
forming tomorrow to be capable of producing damaging wind gusts
around 60mph, hail around 1" in diameter, heavy rainfall (1-3"
total), brief tornadoes, and frequent lightning strikes. Otherwise,
expect increasing cloud cover through the day, with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

Sunday...A mid level low lifts northeast across the southeast U.S.
coastal states on Sunday. At the surface, a "cool front" sags
southward across the Florida peninsula. Numerous showers and storms
will be possible on Sunday as the front moves across east central
Florida, and dynamics will be in place to support a few severe
storms. A tightening pressure gradient at the surface will increase
SW winds to around 20-25 mph ahead of the front. Winds aloft will
also increase as the pressure gradient increases between the
southeastward moving trough and high pressure settled to the
southwest. This will support an elevated threat for damaging winds
and a chance for tornados, and the Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted east central Florida in a Marginal risk. Conditions will
clear from northwest to southeast on Sunday with showers moving
south of Lake Okeechobee by sunset. High temperatures will be in the
low 80s with mid 80s across the Treasure Coast counties.

Monday-Thursday (Previous)...Much quieter weather pattern sets up
behind the front as we head into the workweek. Weak high pressure
will build over the area with light west to southwest flow through
midweek. Guidance shows a potential dry frontal passage that may
clip the area Wednesday. However, moisture will be lacking with PWAT
values mainly around 0.5-1" for much of the week. Otherwise, each
day will give way to mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs in the
low to mid 80s Monday and the mid 80 to near 90 degrees thereafter.
Lows are forecast to reach the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 424 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Current-Saturday...  Current buoy 41009 observations show seas are 4
ft with SSW winds around 12 KT. Isolated to scattered showers have
formed across the Treasure Coast this afternoon, with additional
showers and storms expected into this evening if the east coast sea
breeze can push onshore. Otherwise, mostly dry overnight before
increasing chances of showers and storms Saturday afternoon along
the east coast sea breeze and then with the squall line in
association with a trough. Some storms may be strong to severe
Saturday afternoon and into the evening. Southwest winds 10-15 KT
through most of the period, increasing to 15 to near 20 KT late
in the afternoon on Saturday. Seas 3-4ft.

Sunday-Wednesday...Hazardous boating conditions on Sunday as
SW winds around 25-30 kts increase seas to 4-6 ft with 7 ft across
the far offshore waters. Winds will shift W/NW behind a cold front
passage on Sunday and slowly diminish to around 10 kts by mid week.
Seas subside to 2 ft by Tuesday before a brief swell increases seas
to 4-5 ft across the offshore waters on Wednesday. A few strong
lightning storms will be possible across the local waters Sunday
with no mentionable precip Monday through the remainder of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 424 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023

VFR outside of convection through the TAF period. Overall convection
today has been limited due to cloudy conditions earlier today. VCSH
for interior sites through around 02Z, with VCTS possible along the
coast through around 02Z. Have included TEMPOs for 3SM TSRA BKN030
from TIX southward starting around 21Z and going through around 23Z.
But this will depend on the sea breeze formation. Lingering
convection ending around midnight and becoming mostly dry overnight.
VCSH starting around 15Z with the main convection starting later in
the afternoon. South to southwest winds prevail through the TAF
period, with winds becoming gusty Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  86  68  81 /  30  70  70  70
MCO  70  88  72  80 /  40  70  70  70
MLB  70  86  71  85 /  40  60  60  80
VRB  68  89  71  87 /  30  60  50  80
LEE  70  87  70  80 /  40  70  80  60
SFB  69  88  70  82 /  40  70  70  70
ORL  71  88  72  82 /  40  70  70  70
FPR  70  88  71  85 /  30  60  50  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Watson
LONG TERM....Law
DSS/RADAR...Sedlock/Schaper

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1128 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-290330-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1128 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are expected to
develop over the Florida peninsula late this morning and move
toward the east or southeast this afternoon and interact with the
east coast sea breeze near the coast. Coverage of showers and
lightning storms will increase along the coast this late
afternoon becoming scattered to numerous, particularly from Cape
Canaveral southward. Conditions remain favorable for a few storms
to become strong to severe, containing damaging wind gusts near 60
mph, hail up to quarter- sized, frequent lightning strikes and
heavy rain.

Continue to remain weather aware today and ensure you have
multiple ways to receive warnings. Move indoors to safety if
skies begin to look threatening, or if you hear thunder.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Bands of heavy rain may train or backbuild over similar areas.
This will be more likely to occur near the coast and will be very
localized with up to 3 inches possible in a short period of time.
This would result in temporary flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas as well as urban areas.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents continues at all central
Florida Atlantic beaches. Check with the local beach patrol for
additional information about ocean hazards and always heed the
advice of lifeguards. Swim only within sight of a lifeguard and
never enter the ocean alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Storms will be capable of producing wind gusts greater than 35
knots, large hail, frequent cloud-to-water lightning, and locally
higher waves on inland lakes, the Intracoastal Waterway, and
nearshore Atlantic waters.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
Storms containing brief funnel clouds or waterspouts will be
possible within coastal areas, especially late this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Potential for strong to severe storms will be present both
Saturday and Sunday. The main threats will be wind gusts and
hail. Ponding water will be an increasing hazard through this
period, as rounds of rainfall accumulate each day.

At least a moderate risk of rip currents will continue through
the weekend. Hazardous boating conditions are forecast to develop
on Sunday, as south to southwest winds increase 20 to 25 knots.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Law

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