Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1118 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023

...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Slightly drier air this morning, as evidenced by a 1.2" PW on the
10z XMR sounding, will gradually recover to around 1.4-1.5" this
afternoon as the east and west coast sea breezes migrate inland.
For now, east-central Florida remains dry with a few light showers
over the local Atlantic waters, east of Sebastian Inlet.
Temperatures are climbing into the low 80s with highs still
expected in the low 80s (coast) to mid 80s (inland).

Convection is still expected to initiate along the developing
east coast sea breeze midday through the early afternoon. While
isolated in nature, this initial development will be more directly
supported by a mid level shortwave moving over central Florida, so
a strong storm or two are possible as early as 12-2 PM. The main
threats will be large hail, gusty winds, and occasional to
frequent lightning strikes. While the threat for a tornado is very
low, it cannot be ruled out along the marine/land environmental
interface, especially in the vicinity of the developing sea
breeze.

From mid to late afternoon, an east and west coast sea breeze
collision is still expected across interior Florida. Morning model
runs of CAM guidance and hi-res ensembles show a parameter space
capable of strong and sustained updrafts, presence of some dry air
in the mid levels, and steep lapse rates. Coverage of storms is
the main question this afternoon, as mid level support moves
offshore into the Atlantic and moisture convergence stays tightly
focused to the mid-late afternoon sea breeze collision.
Regardless, anomalously cold 500mb temperatures of -13C to -15C
present a high ceiling for hail potential this afternoon.
Additionally, DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg will support efficient
downdrafts capable of gusty to locally damaging wind. A tornado
cannot be ruled out, mainly where local wind fields are modified
by storm-scale flow.

Remain weather aware today, especially this afternoon, and have
multiple methods of receiving warnings. Head indoors at the first
sign of thunder or lightning and monitor changing weather
conditions through early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Today-Tonight (modified previous)...Another active day for
showers and lightning storms expected today, especially along the
coast and inland. Coverage of showers and lightning storms
increasing along the coast into the early afternoon, as the sea
breeze develops. Strong to severe storms will be likely,
especially over inland lakes this afternoon, as the sea breeze
pushes inland and collides with the west coast breeze. Main
threats will be hail 1" to 2" in diameter or larger, gusty winds
around 50-55 kts, and frequent lightning strikes. Storms are
expected to move SE around 10-15kts with a few showers possibly
drifting offshore from the Treasure Coast late this evening.
Otherwise, onshore flow continuing, with winds up to 8-12kts. Seas
2-4ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Generally VFR prevailing with ISM/LEE and the Treasure Coast
terminals experiencing some transient MVFR CIGs. An east coast sea
breeze will develop in the next few hours with isolated SHRA/TSRA
possible along the coast. An eventual collision of the west and
east coast sea breezes is expected after 20z-21z, associated with
strong to severe storm development. Hail greater than 2" in
diameter, gusty winds 50-55 kt, and frequent lightning strikes are
possible.

TEMPOs will likely need minor adjustments this afternoon based on
storm development and evolution. However, any strong to severe
storm that impacts TAF sites, mainly terminals southwest of DAB,
may experience reductions to MVFR/IFR. Outside of storms, onshore
flow continues around 10 kt. Convection will dissipate after
02z-03z with onshore flow decreasing to 5 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  67  81  67 /  40  10  30  60
MCO  85  67  85  69 /  60  20  40  50
MLB  83  69  83  70 /  60  30  30  50
VRB  83  68  85  69 /  60  30  30  40
LEE  86  66  88  69 /  60  20  40  60
SFB  84  66  86  68 /  50  20  40  60
ORL  85  67  88  70 /  60  20  40  60
FPR  83  69  83  70 /  60  30  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Schaper
LONG TERM....Law
IDSS...Tollefsen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1139 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-270200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1139 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Severe storms are expected today, with the Storm Prediction Center
highlighting much of east central Florida in an Enhanced Risk.
Convection is expected to begin along the coast through early
afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Then, activity will spread
inland through the afternoon, with a sea breeze collision over the
interior helping to further enhance any storms. Storms are
expected to move southeast at around 10 to 15 mph.

Main threats today will be hail one to two inches in diameter or
larger, gusty to locally damaging winds up to around 60 mph, and
frequent lightning strikes. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Locally heavy rainfall up to around 2 inches could produce ponding
on roadways or in low-lying or poor drainage areas.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at
area beaches. Check with the local beach patrol for additional
information about ocean hazards and always heed the advice of
lifeguards. Swim only within sight of a lifeguard and never enter
the ocean alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Strong to severe storms are expected to impact inland lakes and
the Intracoastal Waterway, and possibly even the nearshore
Atlantic waters through the afternoon. Storms are expected to
move southeast at around 10 to 15 knots. Main threats will be hail
one to two inches in diameter or larger, gusty winds up to around
50 to 55 knots, and frequent lightning strikes.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
Storms containing brief funnel cloud spinups or waterspouts will
be possible within coastal areas, especially into early
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Storms will be present daily through at least the the weekend. A
few strong to severe storms will once again be possible on Friday.
Main threats will be wind gusts and hail. Ponding water will be
an increasing hazard through this period, as rounds of rainfall
accumulate each day.

At least a moderate risk of rip currents looks to continue
through the weekend. Poor boating conditions will be possible this
weekend, especially on Sunday, as southerly to southeasterly winds
increase.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Schaper/Leahy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 PM EDT WED APR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             5 NNE CAMP HOLLY FISH C 28.15N  80.72W
04/26/2023  E0.50 INCH       BREVARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2300094

SCHAPER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 PM EDT WED APR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW WEST MELBOURNE     28.10N  80.69W
04/26/2023  E60 MPH          BREVARD            FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE ESTIMATES WIND GUSTS TO
            60MPH/52KTS WITH TREE BRANCHES DOWN NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF CONESTEE DR AND POTOMAC DR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2300096

HALEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 PM EDT WED APR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     HAIL             2 NW WEST MELBOURNE     28.10N  80.69W
04/26/2023  E1.25 INCH       BREVARD            FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL
            NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CONESTEE DR AND POTOMAC DR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2300097

HALEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 PM EDT WED APR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             MELBOURNE               28.11N  80.64W
04/26/2023  E1.00 INCH       BREVARD            FL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL FALLING AT NWS MELBOURNE. BEGAN
            AT 322 PM. QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT 337 PM.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER MLB2300093

SCHAPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
353 PM EDT WED APR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             2 SSW WEST MELBOURNE    28.06N  80.68W
04/26/2023  E1.00 INCH       BREVARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR WEST
            MELBOURNE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2300098

LAW