Tornado Warning 6, NWS Milwaukee, WI

568 
WWUS53 KMKX 122111
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
411 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

WIC045-122121-
/O.CAN.KMKX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230712T2130Z/
Green WI-
411 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN GREEN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4255 8982 4260 8979 4257 8955 4250 8960
      4250 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 287DEG 14KT 4254 8969 

$$

PATTERSON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
351 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023)

Tonight through Thursday night:

Widespread showers continue across southern WI this afternoon with a
few rumbles of thunder. Temps are sticking below forecast thanks to
the much needed steady rainfall. This activity will continue
across the area through the early evening before diminishing.

However, still keeping an eye on the clearing slot for our southern
tier of counties along the WI/IL border. Latest satellite imagery
indicates some agitated cu developing IA and northern IL within the
clearing and will skirt toward our neck of the woods in the next few
hours. Although better environment remains south of the cheddar
curtain in IL, which is where we would likely see any storms
develop, there is still small potential for the aforementioned area
to destabilize enough to sustain a stronger thunderstorm or two to
move in from the more favorable environment through the evening,
especially with the nose of the 40-50 kt LLJ edging in. Given the
better low-level shear and decent model hodograph, it would not
be out of the question to get a brief spin up along with some
gusty winds and even smaller hail. Overall this potential remains
conditional, but latest satellite and radar trends are showing
more favorable conditions, but it could be cut off as the wrap
around stratiform rain fills in the pocket of clearing across
southern WI.

Otherwise, the shower chances will gradually clear from west to east
through the evening as the mid-level shortwave trough and surface
low pushes east, but expect lower clouds to linger overnight. Will
see temps fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s overnight.

Clouds will linger into Thursday morning before clearing and
expecting a drier and warmer day with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, especially inland. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or
two to develop, but overall forcing will be minimal and did not
have the confidence to add mentions at this time. Overnight Thursday
will be on the mild side as well with lows in the 60s and will see
rain chances increases as well with another mid-level ripple of
vorticity and leading edge of WAA beginning to work its way into the
region.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023)

Friday through Wednesday:

Better shower chances from the mid-level feature and low-level WAA
are expected through the day Friday as the upper-level dynamics
aligns more with a weaker surface boundary dragging across the
region through the day.

Otherwise, warmer conditions expected for the end of the week with
highs in the 80s. Will continue to see low end daily shower and
thunderstorm chances through the weekend as the upper-level trough
and low remains nearly stationary over north central Canada and
eject a series of vorticity across the region. Most of this activity
will likely be scattered and not completely wash out any weekend
plans. Models show hints of the upper-level pattern to become a bit
more active as the upper-level trough deepens across the region into
early next week bringing additional chances for periodic shower and
thunderstorms.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023)

Widespread showers and storms across the area are bringing a wide
range of flight conditions ranging from LIFR to VFR. Area with
heavier showers and storms are seeing the lower ceilings and
visibilities. Cannot rule out a stronger storm or two for terminals
closer to the WI/IL border. Will continue to see shower and
thunderstorm activity clear from west through the early evening, but
lower flight conditions will likely linger through part of tonight.
Conditions are progged to improve into Thursday morning with more
west-northwesterly winds.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023)

Widespread thunderstorm coverage and rain continues to move over
the southern half of Lake Michigan this afternoon and evening as a
surface low tracks south of the lake tonight. Predominately
easterly winds across the lake will gradually turn more westerly
behind the passing low and shower activity tonight through
Thursday morning. Expect breezy westerly winds to continue through
the end of the week and into the weekend with another round of
widespread thunderstorms expected for Friday night and Saturday.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
329 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-132030-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
329 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon and early
evening. Cannot rule out a few stronger storms or two especially
south of I-94 along the WI/IL border with hail, gusty winds, and
even a brief spin up.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Additional daily chances for thunderstorms are expected from
Thursday into the weekend, though the exact timing and chances
remain uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ643>646-132030-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
329 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon and early
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Additional daily chances for thunderstorms are expected from
Thursday into the weekend, though the exact timing and chances
remain uncertain.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-132030-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
329 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon and early
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Additional chances for thunderstorms are expected from Thursday
into the weekend, though the exact timing and chances remain
uncertain.

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